At the end of the Mac Jones era, opponents could reliably bank on three things when preparing for the Patriots.

Jones would respond poorly to pressure.

His receivers wouldn’t break free often enough from man coverage to hurt them.

And even if those receivers did spring free, their defense wouldn’t get beat deep. Because since Oct. 8, Jones had completed one deep ball, meaning in every midseason Patriots game, there might as well have been a brick wall 20 yards downfield that ran parallel to the line of scrimmage, boxing play in.

Well, Bailey Zappe has knocked that wall down.

In four starts, Zappe has unlocked a deep passing game that generated the explosive plays which powered all four Patriots scoring drives Sunday. The Pats’ once steady-eddy, speed-limit-abiding, on-schedule attack disappeared in Denver and has slowly been fading to black. Not that they’re world-beaters now, but this is a different offense.

With Zappe, the Patriots have posted three of their five lowest success rates (a measure of how often an offense stays ahead of the chains) at 32%, 33% and 34%. Despite that, they upset the Steelers in Pittsburgh and beat the Broncos in Denver, while scoring more than 20 points for just the second and third time all season.

How exactly?

The power of the explosive play.

In Zappe’s starts, the Pats offense has produced three of its five highest explosive play rates this season. Zappe has had help, of course; starting with some favorable field position and DeVante Parker, who secured contested catches longer than 20 yards on both of the Patriots’ final scoring drives, including the game-winner.

Underneath all five fireworks Sunday, Zappe continued to navigate pockets well under pressure. Save for his game-opening strip sack, he also protected the ball. Jones’ weaknesses have become Zappe’s strengths and fundamentally shifted an offense that had begun to limit itself and has now opened a new playbook of possibility.

Here’s what else the film revealed about Sunday’s win:

Bailey Zappe

25-of-33 for 256 yards, 2 TDs

New England Patriots quarterback Bailey Zappe (4) throws during the first half of an NFL football game against the Denver Broncos, Sunday, Dec. 24, 2023, in Denver. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

Accurate throw percentage: 87.1%

Under pressure: 13-of-16 for for 115 yards, TD, 2 sacks

Against the blitz: 10-of-13 for 71 yards, 2 sacks

Behind the line: 9-of-9 for 39 yards, TD

0-9 yards downfield: 10-of-14 for 60 yards

10-19 yards downfield: 1-of-3 for 20 yards

20+ yards downfield: 5-of-5 for 137 yards, TD

Notes: His best game as a pro. No doubt about it.

Zappe posted the highest accurate throw rate of his career, attacking the short and deep areas of the field, finding openings versus man and zone. We’ve hit on Zappe’s pocket presence, play under pressure and downfield aggression in recent weeks, so let’s move to an overlooked part of his game: the mental side.

Denver runs a blitz-happy, spin-the-dial defense under new coordinator Vance Joseph. Between the unending waves of pressure and variety of coverages, Zappe had plenty to sort through before and after each snap.

He handled it all well, occasionally checking to audibles and new route combinations when available, and not forcing a single pass that might’ve been intercepted. This was, considering the lack of run game and talent around him, one of the better quarterbacked games of the post-Tom Brady era.

Critical areas

Turnovers: Patriots 1, Broncos 2
Explosive play rate: Patriots 8.9%, Broncos 6.2%
Success rate: Patriots 33%, Broncos 46%
Red-zone efficiency: Patriots 2-3, Broncos 2-3
Defensive pressure rate: Patriots 37.2%, Broncos 27.8%

Offense

Game plan

Personnel breakdown: 75% of snaps in 11 personnel, 23% snaps in 12 personnel, 2% snaps in 13 personnel***
Personnel production: 5.8 yards/play in 11 personnel, 2.8 yards/play in 12 personnel, 3.0 yards/play in 13 personnel
First-down down play-calls: 65% pass (3.5 yards per play), 35% run (3.9 yards per play)
Play-action rate: 13.9%

Player stats

New England Patriots running back Ezekiel Elliott (15) breaks through the Denver Broncos line during the first half of an NFL football game, Sunday, Dec. 24, 2023, in Denver. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

Broken tackles: Ezekiel Elliott 2
Pressure allowed: RT Mike Onwenu 2 (sack, hurry), LG Atonio Mafi 2 (QB hit, hurry), LT Vederian Lowe 2 (2 hurries) LG James Ferentz (sack), TE Pharaoh Brown (hurry), Team (hurry)
Run stuffs allowed: Team 2, Onwenu
Penalties: LG Atonio Mafi 3 (holding x3)
Drops: WR Demario Douglas, Elliott

Notes

Broncos defensive coordinator Vance Joseph was not shy about his plan for Zappe and Co: blitz like all hell.
Joseph cut his front seven loose early and often, blitzing on seven of the Pats’ first 10 dropbacks. Zappe survived most of that pressure, but his initial strip sack, wide third-down incompletion and a couple run-stuffs conspired to kill the Patriots’ first three drives.
It appeared their fourth possession was headed for a similar fate until Zappe ripped a 28-yard throw to Jalen Reagor to overcome second-and-20, which once was a death knell for this offense. Again, the power of explosive plays.
Zappe hit Reagor down the sideline in the space between the flat defender and deep-half safety in Cover 2, an opening curiously called “the honey hole.” It’s a good throw for Zappe, who also hit one in the preseason to Tyquan Thornton.

After the next series ended with yet another Broncos run-stuff, Bill O’Brien opened his final first-half drive with a play-action pass that generated a 20-yard gain for backup tight end Pharoah Brown. That snap proved to be one of the Patriots’ last from 12 personnel; a notable halftime adjustment, as they played almost exclusively from three-receiver sets in the second half.
Breaking from halftime, O’Brien seized on one of his own tendencies by calling a play-action pass with Kevin Harris in the backfield. To that point, Harris had run the ball on all four of his offensive snaps (Ezekiel Elliott is a much better pass-catcher and protector), but his fifth helped lead to a 41-yard bomb to Demario Douglas.
Zappe’s pocket movement was again central to that completion, as he dodged incoming rushers and stepped up to heave the ball downfield. Four plays later, Zappe needed no such acrobatics to hit Elliott for an 11-yard touchdown.
On that score, O’Brien repeated a play-call that had freed Elliott for a potential big gain in the second quarter but fell incomplete because of a bad drop.
Those calls spoke to a game-plan theme: targeting Broncos linebacker Alex Singleton in coverage. The Pats had Elliott run 25 routes, his second-highest total of the season, per Pro Football Focus.

The Patriots also worked Denver’s linebackers when they went to empty sets and frequently caught the Broncos in the same “Quarters” coverage that left the flats open and a couple checkdowns for Zappe.
Both of the Pats’ ensuing scoring drives relied heavily on DeVante Parker winning 50/50 balls against All-Pro corner Patrick Surtain II. Parker’s first covered 30 of the 42 yards left until the end zone, though the offense later had to overcome an Atonio Mafi holding penalty that set the back into second-and-20.
Again, Zappe bought time in the pocket with his legs and lofted an 11-yard. red-zone touchdown to tight end Mike Gesicki on third-and-9.
Parker’s second catch was closer to the back-shoulder variety and vaulted the Patriots to midfield inside the final minute after a couple short runs. That play-call may have surprised a Broncos defense that had suffocated the prior two drives with ramped-up blitz pressure and blanketed four short throws to Elliott and a third-down slant for Reagor.
Once more, however, Zappe sustained a drive with his legs. Needing 10 more yards to put kicker Chad Ryland in range for his eventual game-winner, he dodged two rushers and hit Elliott for five yards before whipping a 4-yard completion to Gesicki on the last offensive play.

Up front, Mafi replaced starting left guard James Ferentz after just four snaps. Ferentz got tossed on the opening strip sack and was in the vicinity of a run-stuff on the next series.
The Pats rotated Trent Brown with Vederian Lowe at right tackle. Aside from Mafi, Lowe and right tackle Mike Onwenu were the only O-linemen to allow multiple pressures.
Center David Andrews has not allowed a single pressure or run-stuff in four straight games. The captain is killing it.

Defense

Game plan

Personnel breakdown: 36% three-corner nickel package, 27% base, 19% dime, 15% three-safety nickel, 1.5% goal-line, 1.5% prevent.****
Coverage snaps breakdown: 70% zone, 30% man
Blitz rate: 18.6%
Blitz efficacy: 6.0 yards and 50% success rate allowed per dropback, TD

Player stats

New England Patriots defensive tackle Christian Barmore (90) reacts after a play during the second half of an NFL football game against the Denver Broncos, Sunday, Dec. 24, 2023, in Denver. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

Interceptions: None
Pass deflections: S Kyle Dugger, CB Jonathan Jones, DB Myles Bryant, DL Keion White
Pressure: OLB Josh Uche 5 (sack, QB hit, 3 hurries), DL Christian Barmore 4 (3 sacks, QB hit), LB Mack Wilson (sack), Team 2 (2 hurries), DL Keion White (QB hit), LB Jahlani Tavai (QB hit), DL Deatrich Wise (hurry), OLB Anfernee Jennings (hurry), DB Myles Bryant (hurry)
Run stuffs: Team 2, DT Davon Godchaux, S Jalen Mills
Missed tackles: Tavai 4, LB Ja’Whaun Bentley 3, Jennings 2, Mills 2, DL Jeremiah Pharms Jr., S Marte Mapu, CB Shaun Wade, Bryant
Penalties: None

Notes

Just like Vance Joseph’s approach to the Patriots offense, Broncos coach Sean Payton hit the Pats over the head with his plan: heavy personnel, perimeter runs and play-action passing.
That forced the Pats to bulk up in response and play almost 30% of their defensive snaps with only four defensive backs; a season high. That started right away with a red-zone stand, which featured a little luck as Broncos running back Javonte Williams tripped trying to score on fourth-and-goal from the Patriots’ 2-yard line.
Playing from 3-4 personnel left their linebackers vulnerable in coverage, a trade-off the Patriots willingly accepted, especially once Courtland Sutton took most of Denver’s explosiveness with him when he left the game with a head injury. Sutton’s departure completely changed the complexion of this matchup.
With Sutton out, the Pats’ chief objective became containing Russell Wilson in the pocket. Wilson entered kickoff as the Broncos’ leader in rushing touchdowns and first downs.He finished with four carries for 20 yards and no scores. A major win.
Credit is owed to edge defenders Deatrich Wise, Keion White, Anfernee Jennings and Josh Uche, all of whom played more snaps than usual. Through this group Pats employed a muddled pass rush to contain Wilson, as opposed to trying to pressure him ASAP.
Uche continued a late-season resurgence with a game-best five pressures. Not even Uche, though, matched the output or power of Christian Barmore, who finished with three sacks, a QB hit, holding penalty drawn and contributed to some short-yardage stops.

Barmore played a career-high 87% of defensive snaps, a pillar of their base packages and pass-rushing personnel groups.
White also left his imprint on Denver’s run and pass game, as the only defender to register one pressure and a run-stuff.
Unable to maintain a steady run game or generate any plays longer than 14 yards, the Broncos produced just one scoring drive (on a short field) through three quarters. That changed once the Patriots’ pass rush tired out, and Wilson finally hit on a couple deep throws on each of his late touchdown drives.
The 47-yarder to Marvin Mims arguably should have been overturned by review, but Wilson’s ensuing 21-yard touchdown to Brandon Johnson was a well-placed ball that beat a rare Patriots blitz. Defensive play-caller Steve Belichick trusted his four-man rush for most of the night, except a few key spots.
One of those spots was Denver’s opening snap at 1:42 remaining in a tied game. Belichick sent an all-out, which Payton anticipated with a well-timed screen pass that surprisingly went for a 3-yard loss. The problem? Myles Bryant.
Bryant, who served as the glue of a banged-up Pats secondary all night playing outside corner, nickelback and safety, sniffed out the screen, bumped running back Samaje Perine before the ball arrived and helped bring down for a loss.

The Pats may have lost the game were it not for his effort, an ensuing White pass breakup at the line of scrimmage and Uche hurry that helped for a third-down incompletion.
Among other highlights: Jahlani Tavai forced a first-half fumble on an earlier blitz, which helped mask a tough day for the linebackers. He and Ja’Whaun Bentley missed several tackles and were frequently targeted in coverage.
Another duo with a tough day: cornerbacks Shaun Wade and Alex Austin, who each allowed a touchdown. Meanwhile, veteran cover artist Jonathan Jones didn’t yield a single catch.

Studs

New England Patriots defensive tackle Christian Barmore (90) celebrates a play against the Denver Broncos of an NFL football game Sunday December 24, 2023, in Denver. (AP Photo/Bart Young)

DL Christian Barmore

The best player on the field. Full stop. Barmore was a beast.

QB Bailey Zappe

Zappe did a little bit of everything. Best of all, he kept his cool in the big moment and in the face of Denver’s unrelenting blitz.

WR DeVante Parker

Parker’s explosive plays powered two scoring drives, including the game-winner. This is the receiver many expected to see coming out of training camp.

Duds

LG Atonio Mafi

Three penalties, two pressures allowed. Rough day at the office for the rookie.

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LB Ja’Whaun Bentley

Bentley missed multiple tackles and was in coverage on the 2-point play that allowed Denver to tie the game late.

Special teams

Hats off to Chad Ryland for the mental toughness it took to drill a game-winning 56-yarder after two misses, but taking in the entire picture, this was a bad night. The Pats allowed a 50-yard punt return, cost themselves 19 yards of field position on a fourth-quarter penalty by core special teamer Chris Board ahead of a potential game-winning drive for Denver and had the aforementioned misses.

Statistics for passing depth, broken tackles and missed tackles courtesy of Pro Football Focus.

*Explosive plays are defined as runs of 12-plus yards and passes of 20-plus yards. Explosive play rate is one of the most strongly correlated metrics with wins and losses.

**Success rate is an efficiency metric measuring how often an offense stays on schedule. A play is successful when it gains at least 40% of yards-to-go on first down, 60% of yards-to-go on second down and 100% of yards-to-go on third or fourth down.

***11 personnel = one running back, one tight end; 12 personnel = one running back, two tight ends; 13 personnel = one running back, three tight ends; 21 = two halfbacks, one tight end.

****Base defense = four defensive backs; nickel defense = five defensive backs; dime defense = six defensive backs; goal-line defense = three defensive backs; dollar defense = seven defensive backs.