There is no doubt that immigration is at the top of American voters’ minds heading into a critical election year, and California is no exception. Governor Gavin Newsom made note of this during his debate with Florida Governor Ron DeSantis last month when he called for immigration reform and reminded viewers he was the only border state governor on the stage.

The border is a perpetual hot button topic across the country, and on the national level Democrats are struggling to make their case to voters – just one-third (33%) of Americans approve of Biden’s handling of the issue, per Economist/YouGov polling – and Democrats have largely failed to recognize that Americans generally do not share their preference for open borders.

Quite simply, with Congressional Republicans linking further aid to Ukraine and Israel, it is time for Democrats to realize that if they want to assist our allies, particularly Ukraine, they must come around to the idea that their preferences for expanded asylum and increasing funding for migrant assistance at the expense of border security, will no longer work.

Leading the way on this is Gavin Newsom, who at the very least, differentiated himself from the majority of his party, by recognizing that Americans want strong border security paired with commonsense immigration reform.

In his debate with DeSantis, Newsom initially preferred to talk about the border in a broader defense of Biden’s record, accusing Republicans of “playing politics” by sitting on Biden’s $14 billion request for border security funding.

Then, under probing from moderator Sean Hannity, Newsom clearly and forcefully laid out where he stands, saying “I support border security. I think the asylum system is broken. I’m the only guy here that’s a border state governor. You’re trolling folks and trying to find migrants to play political games to try and get some news and attention.”

Newsom went on to flex his record of getting 68,000 illegal migrants off the streets of California this past year, as well as sending California National Guard troops to bolster border security, juxtaposing his effective policies with DeSantis’ headline-seeking deportations to Martha’s Vineyard.

If Newsom can continue this approach – pushing for enhanced border security with comprehensive immigration reform – he will emerge as Democrats’ trendsetter on immigration. No small feat for a politician with no national experience.

Put another way, with Americans overwhelmingly disapproving of Biden’s approach, Newsom has a chance to not only raise his national profile, but also cement his position as a leading Democrat on the issue, if he can craft a common-sense, centrist, and responsible border policy which strengthens border security while ensuring that immigrants already here are a benefit – rather than a cost – to the state’s economy.

It will not be easy. Newsom finds himself trying to address a Southern Border in crisis – migrant crossings are at historic levels, and immigration ranks as the second most important issue to voters, just behind inflation, per Harvard polling – and by an 18-point margin (45% to 27%), voters trust Republicans, rather than Democrats, to handle the issue of immigration, according to NBC polling.

Even deep-blue cities are pushing back on progressive border policies which have caused crises across the country. New York City Mayor Eric Adams, leader of perhaps the bluest city in America has warned that the influx of immigrants will “destroy New York City,” underscoring the depths of the problem.

However, if Newsom can incorporate a middle-of-the-road border policy into the larger state budget, it will be an example for national Democrats to follow, as well as an achievement he could use to jumpstart any future presidential ambitions he may have.

That said, California faces challenging budget questions. After Newsom proposed an ambitious state budget of $223.6 billion last year, it was announced that California would be operating at a $22.5 billion deficit by the end of 2023.

While financial hurdles have curbed Newsom’s ability to start nationally-controversial but locally-supported programs such as unemployment benefits for undocumented immigrants, Newsom has made the case that investing in migrant asylum programs will shrink the homeless population plaguing the state, and has oriented his policies to capture the economic benefits of a large migrant workforce.

On that point, he appears correct. In California, the state receives upwards of $3.7 billion annually in taxes from undocumented immigrants working in the state, according to USC, an essential windfall. In exchange for paying taxes, migrants receive benefits such as healthcare through the state’s Medi-Cal program, allowing them to contribute to the economy by staying in the workforce and off the streets.

That balance, incentivizing migrants to work in exchange for certain benefits, along with tough enforcement of laws against illegal immigration, increasing funding for law enforcement in Southern California cities closest to the border, and deporting migrants convicted of crimes, is a winning formula, if Newsom can hold his own against the inevitable pushback from his state’s progressive legislature.

Crucially, Newsom’s immigration policies are well-supported in left-leaning California. A majority (51%) of adults in California say the Democratic party is more equipped than the Republican party to handle the issue of immigration, a stark contrast to national polls of late which favor Republicans.

In spite of public opinion being in Newsom’s favor, he will have to find a way to spread out an already stretched California state budget. Major cities such as San Diego have already reported being overrun with 42,000 migrants “dropped off” by U.S. border authorities in San Diego alone, with no extra funding, and according to the county, “no direction or assistance.”

California has an opportunity to show Washington the benefits of commonsense approaches to immigration, one which strengthens our border, increases funding for law enforcement, enforces laws on the books, but also reforms the asylum and immigration system. If Newsom can expand upon this blueprint in California to create an inclusive, yet functional border policy, it will serve him well both in his home state and with his future political ambitions.

Douglas Schoen is a political consultant