It’s been six years since the Patriots kicked off in Denver.

Somehow, it feels even longer.

Heading into Sunday’s kickoff, the Pats will have already been eliminated from the playoffs for weeks; a far cry from their prior visits to Mile High as a fellow AFC contender. In Denver, new head Sean Payton has rescued a season that appeared to be on the brink at 1-5 and included a 50-point loss at Miami. While the Broncos’ postseason hopes remain slim at 7-7, expect them to push the Patriots for every inch on every play at home.

Here’s what to watch for:

When the Patriots run

The Pats’ steady-eddy run game hit the brakes last weekend against the Chiefs, averaging 3.2 yards per carry and racking up 52 yards total.

Ezekiel Elliott continues to take the lion’s share of carries and should be expected to do so again in Denver, despite the recent signing of second-year back Kevin Harris off the practice. Lucky for them, the Broncos’ run defense ranks dead last by DVOA, though it’s improved significantly since midseason. Denver ranks middle of the pack by EPA allowed since Week 7, as offenses enjoy high success rates (meaning they stay on schedule) without generating many explosive plays.

Up front, the Patriots must work at least one injury to their offensive line, after losing left guard Cole Strange for the season. On defense, Broncos linebackers Alex Singleton (141 tackles) and Josey Jewell could cause some havoc at the second level.

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When the Patriots pass

Which quarterback will show up: first-half Bailey Zappe or the second-half version?

In his last two starts, Zappe has enjoyed a scorching start, then torpedoed the offense with his play after halftime. He threw picks at Pittsburgh and then versus the Chiefs, against whom he posted a passer rating of 8.68 in the second half. Zappe explained how he might bridge the gap in his performance during a press conference this week.

“I think a little bit of it is just continuing to go through the system,” he said. “Do what the coaches are teaching you to do and what they’re coaching us to do throughout the whole week. As far as going right to left, one-high (coverage), two-high (coverage), things like that. Just going through your reads and taking the first up on a guy and not trying to make a play. Just not forcing anything, just playing within the system.”

Expect the Pats to steer clear of Broncos cornerback Patrick Surtain II, an All-Pro who leads the team with 10 pass breakups. They’ll also need to come ready with answers for the blitz, as Denver ranks in the top 10 for blitz percentage this year under new defensive coordinator Vance Joseph.

When the Broncos run

Denver Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson (3) is chased by Detroit Lions linebacker Alex Anzalone (34) during the second half of an NFL football game, Saturday, Dec. 16, 2023, in Detroit. (AP Photo/David Dermer)

Denver running back Javonte Williams leads the team in rushing, but it’s another player that has Bill Belichick’s eye.

“(Russell) Wilson’s definitely a problem. Running, throwing, extended plays, similar to what we talked about last week with (Patrick) Mahomes, but runs more, runs more than probably any quarterback in the league other than (Lamar) Jackson,” he said.

While Wilson hasn’t taken as many carries as Belichick guessed, he has picked up 34 first downs and scored three touchdowns when rushing, both team-highs. Keeping Wilson contained on scrambles will be a top key for the Patriots. On traditional run plays, defensive tackles Davon Godchaux and Christian Barmore will play pivotal roles against one of the better run-blocking offensive lines in the league.

When the Broncos pass

Pro Bowl receiver Courtland Sutton (58 catches, 770 yards, 10 touchdowns) is Denver’s top threat, a fact not lost on Belichick, who sung his praises this week.

“Sutton’s as good as there is,” Belichick said. “Big guy, great hands, (makes) contested catches, a really hard guy to cover. He’s had tremendous production, especially down the field.”

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Sutton could draw double-teams from a banged-up Patriots secondary that has a habit of doubling elite receivers on third down and inside the red zone. Aside from Sutton, Jerry Jeudy offers a strong No. 2 option. Whether it’s Sutton or Jeudy, look for the Broncos to pick on rookie Pats corner Alex Austin, who started last week in place of J.C. Jackson (non-football illness list).

If Wilson doesn’t like any of his options outside, it’s a safe bet he’ll find his running backs. Denver’s next three leading pass-catchers are all running backs, Samje Perine (41 catches), Williams (34) and Jaleel McLaughlin (24).

Game pick

Broncos 20, Patriots 16