What’s at stake for Vikings over the next few weeks? Here’s how they can make the playoffs.
Technically, the Vikings still control their own destiny as they work toward locking up a playoff spot.
Though they can’t win the NFC North without some help, if the Vikings go 3-0 to end the regular season, they have a 100 percent chance of at least making the playoffs.
Even if they go 2-1, according to a New York Times simulator, they have a 98 percent chance of making the playoffs as a wild card.
Naturally, it gets much murkier if they go 1-2, with the odds evaporating completely if they go 0-3.
That sets the stage for the Vikings’ home game against the NFL North-leading Detroit Lions on Christmas Eve at U.S. Bank Stadium.
It will be the first matchup between the teams with the second matchup coming in a couple of weeks when the Vikings travel to play the Lions in Detroit in the season finale the first week of January.
Sunday is an important game spliced in between with the Vikings playing host to the Green Bay Packers on New Year’s Eve at U.S. Bank Stadium.
How are the Vikings approaching their hectic final three weeks of the regular season?
“It’s all about beating the Lions,” quarterback Nick Mullens said. “You’ve got to beat the Lions.”
There is some truth to that. If the Vikings don’t beat the Lions on Sunday, they make things way harder on themselves.
The playoff race is a logjam at the moment, with the Vikings (7-7) holding the final spot, trying to chase down the Los Angeles Rams (8-7), while also trying to fend off the New Orleans Saints (7-8), Seattle Seahawks (7-7), Atlanta Falcons (6-8), and, of course, the Packers (6-8) for one of seven spots in the NFC playoffs.
As the Vikings prepare to host the Lions this weekend, the New York Times simulator is giving them a 48 percent chance of making the playoffs. That can change rather drastically for the Vikings based on the result of Game 1 vs. Detroit. If the Vikings win, they increase their odds to a 71 percent chance. If they lose, they decrease their odds to a 31 percent chance.
That explains why the Vikings aren’t letting themselves think about anything other than Lions. There’s no sense in looking further down the road. Not when there’s so much at stake this weekend.
“The best way to feel good about the bigger picture is to have laser focus on this game,” Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell said. “Nothing else matters.”
Now, that doesn’t mean the Vikings are dead in the water if they lose to the Lions on Christmas Eve. In that scenario, however, the Vikings would absolutely have to beat the Packers on New Year’s Eve. If they lose both games, they can pretty much start booking tee times for an extended offseason.
“We only have so many guaranteed days,” Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores said. “We have to take advantage of it with the way we work.”
In addition to improving their chances of making the playoffs with a win on Sunday, the Vikings can simultaneously prevent the Lions from winning the division title for the first time in 30 years. As defending champions of the NFC North, the Vikings aren’t ready for their reign to be over, which should provide some extra motivation.
“We still have the crown,” star receiver Justin Jefferson said. “It hasn’t been taken from us yet.”
Indeed. There’s also a slim chance that the Vikings can still win the NFC North outright. That would require the Vikings winning out and the Lions losing out.
As improbable as it sounds on the surface, it’s not out of the realm of possibility given the crossover. Essentially, if the Vikings go 2-0 over the next couple of weeks, and the Lions go 0-2, they would play in the season finale with the winner taking the NFC North.
None of that is possible if the Vikings don’t take care of business this weekend.
“You want to be relevant in December, right?” Vikings tight end T.J. Hockenson said. “You want to be playing for something in December, and that’s what we’re doing here in this locker room. It’s going to be a lot of fun these next few weeks. We can only control what we can control, and that’s going out there and playing as hard as we can.”
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