Bill Belichick, Jerod Mayo, Patriots’ defense have something to prove vs. Chiefs
FOXBORO — The Patriots have been eliminated from the playoffs and still have four games to go before the 2023 season mercifully reaches its conclusion, so it’s hard to find things that truly matter in the final slate.
Here’s one: The Chiefs’ offense presents a true test for a Patriots defense that has dominated since Week 10 but hasn’t faced an even above-average offense in that span. And how the Patriots’ defense performs Sunday against head coach Andy Reid, quarterback Patrick Mahomes and tight end Travis Kelce could have long-term ramifications on the franchise as a whole.
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It is true that the 2023 Chiefs are not as efficient or productive as past versions. For the first time since Mahomes took over as the starter in 2018, the Chiefs currently rank outside the top three in expected points added (EPA) per play. They also rank outside the top six in points and yards for the first time since 2017.
But even after struggles to replace Tyreek Hill in the offense have caught up with Mahomes and Reid, the Chiefs still present one of the five biggest challenges the Patriots’ defense has faced this season.
The Chiefs are seventh in EPA per play and fourth in DVOA. Mahomes is fourth in QBR, fifth in EPA per play and third in overall PFF grade among QBs.
For any other team, this would be a banner season for the offense. For the Chiefs, it has people wondering what’s gone wrong.
The Patriots’ defense ranks 12th overall this season in EPA per play against, but they’re second since Week 10. They’ve allowed just 44 points in that span — the least in the NFL.
It’s entirely possible that the Patriots’ defense turned a significant corner in Germany for Week 10, but the opposition also must be considered. The Colts, Giants and Steelers all started backup quarterbacks. Chargers wide receivers dropped six of quarterback Justin Herbert’s passes in Week 13.
The Chargers, Colts, Steelers and Giants rank 17th, 19th, 25th and 31st, respectively, in EPA per play this season. There’s not a solid squad among them.
Sunday will present the defense’s first true test since Week 8 when they lost 31-17 to the Dolphins at home.
In a vacuum, how the Patriots’ defense performs this season does not matter. The team is only competing for pride and a draft positioning at this point. But how the defense continues to respond over the final quarter of the season could also affect decisions the team is forced to make this offseason.
First among them is whether or not to keep Bill Belichick as head coach. NBC Sports Boston’s Tom E. Curran reported this week that a decision was made after the Patriots lost 10-6 to the Colts in Germany that Belichick would not be retained.
“When they came out of Germany, conversations I had that week made it very clear that a decision was made,” Curran said on “Arbella Early Edition.” “They were going to play out the string, and at the end of the year, there would be a parting of the ways, for a variety of reasons.”
Belichick was asked if it was his understanding that owner Robert Kraft will not ask him to be back next season.
“I’m getting ready for Kansas City,” Belichick said Wednesday. “That’s what I’m doing.”
But the Patriots’ primary struggles this season have come on offense and through personnel. Belichick has long been considered a defense genius. He would have little reason for reaching an agreement to reduce his power in the organization, but in an ideal world, there’s value in retaining Belichick and his defensive dominance but having him give up front-office decision-making, especially as it relates to offense.
And if the Patriots can shut down the Chiefs the same way they’ve neutralized the Colts, Chargers, Giants and Steelers, then it shows that Belichick still has it on the defensive side of the ball.
There’s also the decision to make on linebackers coach Jerod Mayo, whom Kraft called in March, “definitely a strong candidate to be the heir apparent” to Belichick.
It feels strange to promote an assistant on a team that went 3-10 to head coach, but Mayo’s defense, which he helps lead with Belichick and co-linebackers coach Steve Belichick, has not been to blame this seaosn.
“Hopefully, as you guys all know, one day I want to be a head coach,” Mayo said Tuesday in a video conference. “Where that is, I don’t know. But at the same time, I would say I have a lot of love for New England. I have a lot of love for the fans, the people around the building, and my family, they love it here, as well.
“So that would be great if I could stay here and continue to progress throughout my career. But we’ll see.”
Again, if Mayo helps the Patriots shut down the Chiefs, regardless of the game’s outcome, then it only strengthens his case to be a head coach.
But Sunday’s matchup will serve as a test of whether the Patriots’ defensive success over the last five weeks has more to do with coaching and talent or a weak stretch of schedule.
These are games the Patriots must win in the future. A moral victory that comes with an actual loss in the standings and improved draft pick is what’s best for the franchise at this point.