Callahan: Robert Kraft’s reported Bill Belichick decision should be no surprise

FOXBORO — If you dismiss the NBC Sports Boston report stating Robert Kraft decided last month to part ways with Bill Belichick at the end of the season, I have two questions for you.

Question No. 1: Do you remember the last 11 months?

Last January, Kraft ended Belichick’s experiment with the coaching staff that resulted in the worst Patriots offense in decades and dragged a solid team into an 8-9 finish. Kraft then sent a letter to season-ticket holders that expressed his dissatisfaction with the team’s performance and projected an improved on-field product in 2023.

In March, Kraft reiterated his belief in Belichick to reporters at the owners meetings around this pointed remark: “In the end, this is a business. You either execute and win, or you don’t. That’s where we’re at. We’re in a transition phase.” Next, when asked about newly re-signed linebackers coach Jerod Mayo, Kraft said: “There’s no ceiling on (Mayo’s) ability to be a head coach. And he’ll be a head coach. I’m sure of that. I hope he’s with us.”

Months later, Kraft watched Mac Jones, whom he has repeatedly backed, break in real time during a 34-0 loss to New Orleans, the Patriots’ worst home shutout in franchise history. A month later, Kraft told the NFL Network in Germany that the team’s 2-7 start had been “really disappointing.” He also shared a belief the Pats’ upcoming kickoff against the Colts offered a legitimate chance to reset their season.

Instead, Jones got benched for a third time, and the Patriots suffered international embarrassment with a wretched 10-6 loss. It was around that time, according to NBC Sports Boston’s Tom E. Curran, that Kraft decided he would split with Belichick.

Since then, all that’s come to pass is another benching for Jones, another home shutout and the Patriots’ earliest elimination from postseason contention since 2000. Meanwhile, Mayo waits comfortably in the wings.

Question No. 2: If you were Kraft, how much more would you need to see to reach the same conclusion?

Bill Belichick responds to report Robert Kraft has already decided to part ways

The Patriots just clinched their third losing season in the last four years. Come January, Belichick’s winning percentage as a head coach and GM since Tom Brady left will fall somewhere between 40-45%. Few franchises have drafted worse than the Pats over the last decade – their last first-round hit was Dont’a Hightower in 2012 – and none have broken a young quarterback quite like Belichick did with Jones.

The Patriots’ struggles already spooked television executives, who did them the great dishonor of making them the first NFL team in history to get booted off Monday Night Football. The Pats will instead host the Chiefs at 1 p.m. Sunday in a regionally televised game; history Kraft would rather not have made.

Kraft feeling incensed about the Patriots’ struggles is nothing new. From March 2022: “After my family, there’s nothing more important to me than the New England Patriots and winning football games. I’m a Patriot fan big-time first, and it bothers me that we haven’t been able to win a playoff game in the last three years. We had a period of two decades that was unbelievable. We have to find a way to sustain it, keep it going.”

Perhaps all of Kraft’s bluster is performative, as some have long suggested. When addressing reporters, Kraft always portrays himself as a fan first and owner second, a way to ally himself with fans. Kraft cares deeply about his legacy, both around New England and the league at large; especially in his early 80s and standing on the doorstep of the Pro Football Hall of Fame.

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But what would the payoff of performative anger be at this point? What would that achieve?

Belichick has already lost most of the fan base. Keeping him would only incite fans against Kraft, who has been staring at an increasingly empty stadium and rising criticism for the team’s lack of spending. If he stays, Belichick’s contract would also require a difficult and delicate restructuring, as no NFL head coach ever enters a true contract year. Belichick’s deal reportedly runs through 2024.

My understanding is Belichick recently expressed uncertainty about next season to some close to him. Well now, that uncertainty, like the Patriots’ playoff chances, is poof – gone.

In his report, Curran cited conversations he shared with sources shortly after the loss in Germany. By now, you shouldn’t need to listen to know what comes next.

Just a working memory.

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