Massachusetts revenues plunge as spending soars
Beacon Hill’s growing financial headache got worse when the Healey administration reported that tax collections tumbled in November, putting the state’s revenue picture about $627 million below the projection for this point in the year.
The Department of Revenue announced it collected $2.253 billion in taxes last month, which was $131 million or 5.5% less than in November 2022. It was also $274 million or 10.9% short of the benchmark figure the administration set for the month.
Through the first five months of fiscal year 2024, Massachusetts has hauled in about $14.097 billion in taxes. That’s a slight increase of $146 million, or 1%, over the first five months of fiscal year 2023, but $627 million or 4.3% less than the estimates the Healey administration and Legislature used to craft this year’s record $56 billion budget.
Tax collections have failed to hit benchmarks for five straight months, getting this state budget year off to a rocky beginning, and forcing the Healey administration to at least begin considering possible responses.
“November collections decreased in non-withheld income, sales and use tax, corporate and business tax, and ‘all other’ tax in comparison to November 2022,” Revenue Commissioner Geoffrey Snyder said. “These decreases were partially offset by an increase in withholding. The decrease in non-withheld income tax was driven primarily by an unexpected increase in income tax refunds. The decrease in sales and use tax was mainly due to a decline in regular sales tax. The decrease in ‘all other’ tax is mostly attributable to a decrease in estate tax, which tends to fluctuate.”
“We find ourselves at a precarious crossroads,” Senate Ways and Means Chair Michael Rodrigues said Monday during a consensus revenue hearing for the upcoming budget year. “There are storm clouds gathering on the horizon. We’ve faced several months of collections that have fallen below benchmarks. The economy, while strong, is slowing and cooling off in face of high interest rates and other stresses.”
The slowdown in tax collections could inflict pressure to reduce revenue expectations and rein in spending on Beacon Hill.
State revenues including surtax collections need to increase 5.7% over the FY23 total to hit the FY24 benchmark, according to Doug Howgate, president of the Massachusetts Taxpayers Foundation. Five months in, the growth so far has been only a single percentage point, well below the necessary pace and significantly less than the 6.2% annual spending increase authorized in the state budget.
Administration officials urged caution against extrapolating based on the numbers so far this fiscal year.
November is typically responsible for about 6.5% of annual tax revenue, they said, putting it “among the smaller months for revenue collection because neither individual nor business taxpayers make significant estimated payments during the month.”