Welcome back to Zappe Hour.

Backup quarterback Bailey Zappe will make his first start of the season Sunday against the Chargers. Hopes are not high for Zappe, who went 9-of-14 for 54 yards and an interception last week in his fourth relief appearance of the season. But change should be a positive for a languishing Patriots offense.

As for the Chargers, losers of three straight, quarterback Justin Herbert remains one of the NFL’s best and dangerous passers. Though he is 0-2 in his career against Bill Belichick, who is responsible for two of the worst performances of Herbert’s career. Could Belichick cook up an upset Sunday?

Here’s what to watch for:

When the Patriots run

Last week, offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien called six more passes than runs, despite averaging a full yard more on handoffs than dropbacks. Here’s hoping that changes.

The Patriots boast one of the league’s most efficient run games, ranking in the top 10 by success rate and EPA since the start of October. Rhamondre Stevenson rushed for a season-high 98 yards last week, plus a touchdown, as he dominated running back snaps. With Ezekiel Elliott now fighting through a thigh injury, Stevenson could again see more than 70% of the team’s offensive snaps.

The Chargers also rank among the league’s worst run defenses by most metrics. Expect the Pats to target linebacker Kenneth Murray Jr. and defensive tackle Austin Johnson, two below-average run defenders for their position, on inside runs.

When the Patriots pass

Source: Bailey Zappe took majority of Patriots QB reps in first practice of Week 13

No Demario Douglas will hurt the Patriots’ ability to establish a rhythm for Zappe. The rookie leads all receivers in targets, yards and yards per catch.

That leaves the Patriots turning to players like Stevenson and tight end Hunter Henry, who are next up on the receptions leaderboard. Henry might feast against his old team, considering Los Angeles ranks dead last at defending the middle of the field by DVOA.

Stevenson, whether on the ground or through the air, should also see plenty of touches. The Chargers are third-worst at defending running backs by DVOA, and dumping the ball off to Stevenson should help beat a menacing pass rush. All-Pro outside linebacker Khalil Mack is third in the league in sacks with 13, while rookie edge rusher Tuli Tuipulotu is coming along with four.

“Defensively, they’ve got several guys up front even with (Joey) Bosa out, with (Khalil) Mack and Tuli (Tuipulotu), and guys like that who are really disruptive, can make game-changing plays with strip sacks,” Belichick said this week. “They hit the quarterback a lot in passing situations, third and fourth down in particular. Two minute (drills) – when they need to rush, they can rush.”

When the Chargers run

Los Angeles Chargers running back Austin Ekeler carries against the New England Patriots during the second half of an NFL football game Sunday, Dec. 6, 2020, in Inglewood, Calif. (AP Photo/Kelvin Kuo)

Patriots defensive tackle Lawrence Guy said this week that Chargers running back Austin Ekeler reminds him of James White. The numbers back him up.

Ekeler, a smaller back at 5-foot-10, is the Chargers’ second-leading receiver and top rusher. He’s squeezed out 428 rushing yards and four touchdowns this season, despite some of the worst run-blocking across the NFL. He’s not an overly physical back, but Los Angeles will ask him to make tough yards in short-yardage.

Fourth-year rusher Joshua Kelley offers a bigger, change-of-pace back at 5-foot-11 and 211 pounds, though his presence typically indicates a pass. The Chargers have dropped back on more than 66% of his offensive snaps, per Pro Football Focus.

The Patriots, meanwhile, boast one of the stronger defensive fronts, as evidenced by holding Saquon Barkley to 3.8 yards per carry last week. Whether it’s Ekeler or Kelley, they should have an advantage.

When the Chargers pass

Callahan: The Patriots’ season is now hurry up and wait

So far this season for Los Angeles, it’s all started with Keenan Allen.

Allen has 85 more targets than any other Chargers offensive player, more than 1,100 yards and a team-high seven touchdowns. He leads the NFL in catches during a career year, though Allen didn’t practice Wednesday or Thursday.

As for Herbert, he does everything well: making quick, smart decisions, dotting passes all over the field, extending plays and rifling the ball into tight windows. Yet, he’s completed just 50% of his passes in two games against the Patriots for two touchdowns and four interceptions. His 52.8 passer rating in those games is the lowest of his career against any opponent.

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Look for the Pats to play heavy zone, as they deal with cornerback issues, including a struggling ex-Charger in J.C. Jackson. And even if that coverage blankets Hebert’s weapons, trouble could still await them in the passing game. Allow Belichick to explain.

“Herbert creates some plays on his own when there really isn’t anything there,” Belichick said. “He pulls something out with a scramble or an extended play, or throwing into tight coverage that there aren’t too many guys who can get in there, but he can.

Game pick

Chargers 17, Patriots 9