Extreme starting rotation makeover: 5 trade candidates Red Sox can target
There’s been ample discussion about the starting pitching options on this winter’s free-agent market, but it’s not the only avenue the Red Sox can take on their journey towards a better rotation.
They can trade for a young arm with years of club control, or go for a short-term rental. There’s also the Rick Porcello route: acquire and extend.
For the first time in years, the Red Sox have the kind of farm system that enables them to make significant, even blockbuster trades. Serendipitously, their newfound abundance lines up nicely with the trade market, which includes several intriguing arms.
There’s a familiar divisional foe in Tyler Glasnow, who’s been dominant since the Tampa Bay Rays acquired him from the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2018. When healthy, that is. Since the start of ‘19, the right-hander owns a 3.03 ERA and 1.013 WHIP. However, he’s only averaged 12 starts per year for a grand total of 34 starts (332 ⅔ innings) across the last five seasons. (That’s 22 starts less than Chris Sale over the same span.)
Glasnow, 30, missed most of the ‘19 season due to a forearm strain. In June ‘21, he went on the injured list with a partial UCL tear and right-elbow flexor strain. At the end of July, the Rays announced that he needed Tommy John surgery; he didn’t return until Sep. 28 of the following season. He began ‘23 on the IL with an oblique strain, and didn’t make his first start until the end of May, but finished the year with a career-high 21 starts.
If the Red Sox want a more durable option (knock on wood), they can fork over a prospect haul for White Sox righty Dylan Cease, who won’t be a free agent until 2026. Since the start of the ‘21 season, the almost-28-year-old (Dec. 28) averaged 176 innings and 32 starts – led the AL in starts twice – with a 3.54 ERA, 3.40 FIP, and 1.257 WHIP over that span. Walks have been an issue, pun intended, but he’s more than capable of keeping the ball in the yard and he’s struck out at least 214 batters in each of the last three seasons.
If Chicago’s asking price is too high, there’s a shorter-term option in the AL Central. Shane Bieber has been one of the best pitchers in baseball and will be a free agent following the upcoming season. Just six years into his career, the 28-year-old righty is already a two-time All-Star, the 2020 AL Cy Young, a Gold Glove winner, and achieved the rare Pitching Triple Crown.
Bieber owns a 3.07 ERA and 1.083 WHIP since the start of the ‘19 season, but he’s lost some steam in recent years. His velocity is way down, and his strikeout rate plummeted from 33.1 to 20.1% over the last three seasons, and batters hit him significantly harder this year (47.8%) than the two prior (43.3%). He also missed about two months of ’23 with elbow inflammation. He’s still better than league average at limiting home runs and walks, though.
If the Red Sox want to go for a swim in Lake National League, Corbin Burnes is a potential trade candidate just two years after winning NL Cy Young and he won’t be a free agent until 2025. Since moving into the Milwaukee Brewers rotation full-time in 2021, he’s dominated to the tune of a 2.94 ERA, 2.92 FIP, and 0.994 WHIP.
Burnes averaged 31 starts, 188 innings, and 226 strikeouts per season over the last three years. The last Red Sox pitcher to make at least 30 starts and exceed 180 innings was Eduardo Rodriguez in 2019. They haven’t had a 200-strikeout season since then, either (Rodriguez and Sale).
There’s also Edward Cabrera, the under-the-radar Marlins righty who issues too many walks but racks up the strikeouts; he only allowed 78 hits over 99 ⅔ innings this year. He’s only 25 years old and won’t reach free agency until ‘29, which means the Marlins will want a significant return in exchange for all that youth and club control.