Patriots-Giants film review: Bill Belichick is out of options on offense
The Patriots stink.
On Sunday, they became the first NFL team in 30 years to lose consecutive games where they allowed 10 points or fewer. They scored seven points or fewer for the fourth time this season. And for the fourth time, Bill Belichick benched his starting quarterback.
After the game, Belichick said he believed both Mac Jones and Bailey Zappe deserved to play. With only a half apiece, Jones and Zappe managed to gave Belichick reasons to never see the field again this year. It’s that bad right now in Foxboro, home to the NFL’s worst quarterbacks room, offense and team.
Again, the Patriots stink.
Here’s what else the film revealed about Sunday’s loss:
Mac Jones
12-of-21 for 89 yards, 2 INTs, sack
New England Patriots quarterback Mac Jones (10) walks off the field after throwing an interception against the New York Giants during the second quarter of an NFL football game, Sunday, Nov. 26, 2023, in East Rutherford, N.J. (AP Photo/Adam Hunger)
Accurate throw percentage: 61.9%
Under pressure: 1-of-4 for 5 yards, 2 INTs, sack
Against the blitz: 6-of-13 for 51 yards, 2 INTs, sack
Behind the line: 6-of-6 for 37 yards
0-9 yards downfield: 6-of-11 for 52 yards, INT
10-19 yards downfield: 0-of-3, INT
20+ yards downfield: 0-of-1
Notes: He’s broken. Simple as that.
Bill O’Brien tried to build Jones back up with simple play-action passes early in the game against a Giants defense expecting run. O’Brien called play-action on half of the Pats’ first six first-down snaps. On those throws, Jones hit a 19-yard wide receiver screen, a checkdown, an invisible target miles over Mike Gesicki’s head, then … rock bottom.
Once the Giants cracked the backfield, they cracked him. Jones repeatedly folded against pressure, risking a turnover on 60% of plays where he felt some heat. Pressure triggered all of his worst plays.
Mac Jones currently focused on ‘process’ of becoming Patriots starting QB
Jones fired his first interception into triple coverage, then fell away and lofted a duck at two Giants defenders inside the red zone for his second pick; another panic move that likely took points off the board. Jones’ final error (and snap) was a strip-sack the Patriots recovered.
Jones finished with his third-lowest accurate throw rate of the season at 61.9%, despite also posting his third-shortest average depth of target at 5.2 yards downfield. O’Brien baked minimal risk into the game plan, and his quarterback unearthed it anyway. That’s the story of his season.
According to Pro Football Focus, Jones has almost triple the number of turnover-worthy plays (23) as he does throwaways (8). His 12 picks rank second in the league. He leads all active starting quarterbacks in interception percentage and may have taken his last snap for the Patriots.
Bailey Zappe
9-of-14 for 54 yards, INT
New England Patriots quarterback Bailey Zappe (4) throws the ball during an NFL football game against the New York Giants, Friday, Nov. 26, 2023, in East Rutherford, N.J. (AP Photo/Bryan Woolston)
Accurate throw percentage: 76.9%
Under pressure: 3-of-3 for 17 yards, sack
Against the blitz: 7-of-7 for 44 yards
Behind the line: 5-of-6 for 31 yards
0-9 yards downfield: 4-of-5 for 23 yards
10-19 yards downfield: 0-of-2, INT
20+ yards downfield: N/A
Notes: He ain’t it, either.
O’Brien didn’t even do Zappe the courtesy of manufacturing easy downfield throws. He took the ball out of Zappe’s hands.
The Patriots pivoted to a 75% run rate on first down once Zappe took over. O’Brien hardly let Zappe throw long on any down, even while driving for a possible game-winning touchdown in the final minute. O’Brien called a jet sweep to Tyquan Thrornton on third-and-8, the Pats’ final offensive snap, instead of asking his quarterback to, you know, play quarterback.
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More than half Zappe’s completions were screens. As noted by NESN’s Zack Cox, Zappe’s nine completions totaled minus-4 air yards, meaning they covered more distance behind the line of scrimmage than they did downfield. To his credit, Zappe handled pressure much better than Jones, but he also repeatedly stared down his receivers.
Zappe’s fourth-quarter interception in Giants territory, which led to the eventual game-winning field goal, was the most egregious example of this. He is unfit to start in the NFL, proving in the league’s most depressing quarterback battle there are simply no winners.
Critical areas
New York Giants linebacker Kayvon Thibodeaux (5) sacks New England Patriots quarterback Mac Jones (10) during the second quarter of an NFL football game, Sunday, Nov. 26, 2023, in East Rutherford, N.J. (AP Photo/Seth Wenig)
Turnovers: Patriots 3, Giants 1
Explosive play rate: Patriots 5.8%, Giants 10%
Success rate: Patriots 41%, Giants 29%
Red-zone efficiency: Patriots 1-2, Giants 1-2
Defensive pressure rate: Patriots 36.4%, Giants 27.3%
Offense
Game plan
Personnel breakdown: 56% of snaps in 11 personnel, 42.5% snaps in 12 personnel, 1.5% snaps in 13 personnel.***
Personnel production: 4.75 yards/play in 11 personnel, 3.3 yards/play in 12 personnel, 5.0 yards/play in 13 personnel
First-down down play-calls: 60% pass (5.4 yards per play), 40% run (4.7 yards per play)
Play-action rate: 27%
Player stats
New England Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson (38) scores a touchdown during an NFL football game against the New York Giants Friday, Nov. 26, 2023, in East Rutherford, N.J. (AP Photo/Bryan Woolston)
Broken tackles: Rhamondre Stevenson 6, Ezekiel Elliott 2, Demario Douglas
Pressure allowed: LG Cole Strange 2 (sack, hurry), LT Conor McDermott 2 (QB hit, hurry), Stevenson 2 (2 hurries), C David Andrews (sack), Team (sack, hurry)
Penalties: QB Mac Jones (delay of game)
Drops: WR Tyquan Thornton, RB/WR Ty Montgomery
Notes
How bad, exactly, was the quarterback play? The Pats averaged a full yard more on run plays than dropbacks Sunday. That should never happen in the modern NFL.
And yet for some reason, Bill O’Brien called six more passes than runs. How? Why? The Giants own a bottom-5 run defense, and played without defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence, a second-team All-Pro.
Recognizing all they should need to win 14 points, the Patriots should have unapologetically pounded the soft middle of New York’s defense over and over. Instead, they allowed Jones and Zappe to play starring roles and ruin the show.
Jones also attempted just two passes over the middle, where he works best, and missed his first six downfield throws outside the numbers. How O’Brien didn’t scheme more opportunities for Jones there is a tough.
The biggest non-quarterback takeaway, however, is this: the days of the Patriots’ offense morphing each week to attack its opponents’ weaknesses have been gone and won’t return anytime soon. This is a sad, static group.
Due to personnel limitations, O’Brien has effectively reduced his playbook down to screens, the most basic and common pass concepts, rare play-action shots and a steady-eddy run game.
That simplicity has left the Patriots predictable, as seen on the last plays of each of their first two drives. Giants cornerback Adoree Jackson sat on and jumped third-down slant passes to DeVante Parker and Tyquan Thornton to force incompletions.
Giants CB Adoree Jackson ended the #Patriots first two offensive drives jumping slant passes and forcing incompletions. He sat on both routes pre-snap, unafraid of any throws outside. pic.twitter.com/MjbtJyzypE
— Andrew Callahan (@_AndrewCallahan) November 27, 2023
Parker played 51 snaps in his return from a concussion, the most he’s seen since Week 5. He accounted for the offense’s two longest gains on a screen and slant pass, both from Mac Jones. The Pats failed to record a single play of 20 yards or more.
If Demario Douglas (head) is out this Sunday, the Pats may not generate an explosive play for weeks. Douglas is the only weapon who stresses a defense by himself, and the Patriots have tried to leverage his talent through increased pre-snap motion, either using Douglas a decoy or by giving him a head start into his route.
Losing Douglas would further trim the playbook and distribute targets to less impactful players. Douglas has led the Patriots in targets for four straight weeks.
During that time, JuJu Smith-Schuster has posted two games with a single catch and Tyquan Thornton, Kayshon Boutte and Jalen Reagor have been healthy scratches at different times. They combined for 37 receiving yards Sunday, unable to unstick from the Giants’ man coverage.
Tight ends Hunter Henry and Mike Gesicki were also non-factors, despite the fact the Patriots are playing through multiple tight ends on roughly half their snaps in most games. Gesicki also may have run the wrong route on a key incompletion during a three-and-out in the second quarter.
Rhamondre Stevenson dominated running back snaps, seeing 53 to Ezekiel Elliott’s season-low 15. Both backs seemed to run harder in the second half, when O’Brien went run heavy on early downs.
O’Brien’s play-calling shift helped powered the Pats’ only touchdown drive, then Zappe killed half of the remaining drives with a sack and an interception.
Up front, the offensive line that struggled to protect outside of left tackle Trent Brown and right tackle Mike Onwenu.
Defense
New England Patriots safety Jabrill Peppers (5) reacts after recovering a fumble by the New York Giants during the first quarter of an NFL football game, Sunday, Nov. 26, 2023, in East Rutherford, N.J. (AP Photo/Seth Wenig)
Game plan
Personnel breakdown: 60% three-corner nickel package, 20% three-safety nickel, 20% dime.****
Coverage snaps breakdown: 66% zone, 34% man
Blitz rate: 33.3%
Blitz efficacy: 4.6 yards allowed per dropback, TD
Player stats
Interceptions: None
Pass deflections: CB J.C. Jackson, DB Myles Bryant, S Jabrill Peppers, LB Mack Wilson
Pressure: OLB Anfernee Jennings 4 (sacks, 3 hurries), DL Christian Barmore (sack, 2 hurries), OLB Josh Uche 2 (2 hurries), DL Keion White (sack), LB Ja’Whaun Bentley (sack), Peppers (sack), DL Deatrich Wise (half-sack), DL Lawrence Guy (hurry), DL Jeremiah Pharms Jr. (hurry)
Missed tackles: CB Jonathan Jones, Uche, Jennings, Pharms Jr., Wilson
Penalties: White (unnecessary roughness)
Notes
New England Patriots linebacker Anfernee Jennings (33) reacts during the fourth quarter of an NFL football game against the New York Giants, Sunday, Nov. 26, 2023, in East Rutherford, N.J. (AP Photo/Adam Hunger)
Starting on a high note: the defensive front controlled this game after a rocky first quarter.
Giants running back Saquon Barkley bounced outside just twice for long gains and finished with 46 total rushing yards at a harmless 3.8 yards per carry average.
Defensive lineman Christian Barmore continued his midseason breakout, and had company from outside linebacker Anfernee Jennings. Together, they combined for seven pressures and a pass breakup.
Rookie defensive lineman Keion White almost single-handedly destroyed a series, and earned a sack; as did Jabrill Peppers on an early blitz and later Ja’Whaun Bentley.
Peppers’ sack came off a slot pressure designed to short-circuit the Giants’ early-down deep shots. Head coach Brian Daboll helped scheme up four explosive plays in the first quarter alone, thanks partly to an expectedly aggressive passing plan that exploited holes at the intermediate level of the Patriots’ defense along the sideline.
But once Pats defensive play-caller Steve Belichick began bringing pressure to rookie quarterback Tommy DeVito, the Pats gained a grip on the game.
The Giants also gifted them some boneheaded mistakes: most notably a fumble on the opening drive and key drops throughout the game.
DeVito held onto the ball too long, a common rookie mistake. He took a sack on half of his 12 dropbacks under pressure, and completed just two passes, but never committed a cardinal sin of quarterbacking like Jones or Zappe.
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DeVito also picked on J.C. Jackson, who allowed 75 yards in single coverage on four targets. Jackson gave up three catches, including a 41-yarder to speedy rookie Jalin Hyatt, and had a pass breakup.
The Patriots played a curious amount of zone, given the state of the Giants’ receiving corps. However, as Jackson rotated with fellow corners Jonathan Jones and Shaun Wade outside, the staff may have never felt comfortable with regular 1-on-1 coverage.
Jones lost a tackle on the Giants’ only touchdown: a 12-yard pass to Isaiah Hodgins that beat the blitz.
Despite allowing 10 points in consecutive games, expectations for this defense moving forward should be tempered. The Giants field the worst offensive line in the NFL, and so long as the Pats continue to lean on players like Wade, Jennings and Myles Bryant, opponents will find weak points to pick at.
Another solid overall outing from Jahlani Tavai, though Barkley earned his two longest runs going at him, White and defensive lineman Deatrich Wise.
Studs
DL Christian Barmore
The Patriots’ best defensive player for six weeks running. Barmore tallied three pressures and a pass breakup.
OLB Anfernee Jennings
His best performance as an NFL pass rusher. Jennings has quietly stepped up, while Josh Uche continues to fade into the background of this defense.
Duds
New England Patriots quarterback Mac Jones (10) huddles against the New York Giants during an NFL football game Sunday, Nov. 26, 2023, in East Rutherford, N.J. (AP Photo/Adam Hunger)
QB Mac Jones
He’s become a turnover machine without an off switch.
QB Bailey Zappe
The coaching staff showed little faith in him with its play-calling, and Zappe failed to show that he deserves more.
RB/WR Ty Montgomery
Two offensive snaps, one drop. He’s become a core special teamer for a reason.
CB J.C. Jackson
He became a favorite target of DeVito’s, and allowed three catches for first downs.
Statistics for passing depth, pass protection, pressures, broken tackles and missed tackles courtesy of Pro Football Focus.
*Explosive plays are defined as runs of 12-plus yards and passes of 20-plus yards. Explosive play rate is one of the most strongly correlated metrics with wins and losses.
**Success rate is an efficiency metric measuring how often an offense stays on schedule. A play is successful when it gains at least 40% of yards-to-go on first down, 60% of yards-to-go on second down and 100% of yards-to-go on third or fourth down.
***11 personnel = one running back, one tight end; 12 personnel = one running back, two tight ends; 13 personnel = one running back, three tight ends.
****Nickel defense = five defensive backs; dime defense = six defensive backs.
