MLB Notes: What we know about Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s free agency
Yoshinobu Yamamoto has become one of the most highly coveted players to ever come out of Japan, and this week the 25-year-old right-hander officially hit the market.
Yamamoto was formally posted by Nippon Professional Baseball on Monday, kicking off what is expected to be a highly competitive 45-day window for MLB clubs to bid on his services. Teams will have until 5 p.m. ET on Jan. 4 to sign Yamamoto, who is expected to command a deal worth in excess of $200 million.
Outside of Shohei Ohtani, Yamamoto is the top free agent on the market. It’s not hard to see why.
Yamamoto has posted preposterous numbers since making his professional debut as a teenager in 2017. Over seven NPB seasons, he’s gone 70-29 with a 1.82 ERA and 922 strikeouts in 897 innings. He has won the Sawamura Award, Japan’s equivalent to the Cy Young, each of the last three years, and this past season he posted a career-best 1.21 ERA over 164 innings with the Orix Buffaloes.
Scouts believe Yamamoto’s game should translate well to MLB, and between his mid-to-high 90s fastball, devastating splitter and pinpoint command, he’s viewed as a potential ace.
You rarely see a guy like that hit free agency at age 25, so it’s no surprise all the big players are interested.
The Red Sox are considered contenders to land Yamamoto, as are the New York Yankees, New York Mets, Los Angeles Dodgers, San Francisco Giants, Chicago Cubs and others. Whoever ultimately lands the righty will have to open their checkbook, so a lot could come down to where Yamamoto actually wants to pitch.
Earlier this week, Yamamoto’s agent Joel Wolfe shed some light on his client’s preferences, telling Japanese media that Yamamoto is open to playing anywhere and is comfortable sharing the spotlight with another Japanese player. That was good news for all the big East Coast clubs, to and the Red Sox and Mets especially, who each brought in prominent Japanese standouts last offseason. Wolfe also said Yamamoto received interest from 11-14 clubs within the first days of being posted, which he called unprecedented.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto of Japan greets fans prior to the quarterfinal game between Italy and Japan at the World Baseball Classic (WBC) at Tokyo Dome in Tokyo, Japan on March 16, 2023. (AP Photo/Toru Hanai)
If Yamamoto considers linking up with a familiar face to be a plus, the Red Sox might be best positioned of anyone thanks to Masataka Yoshida.
Like Yamamoto, Yoshida also played for the Orix Buffaloes before making the jump to MLB. The two played six seasons together with the Buffaloes and won a Japan Series title, and they also won an Olympic gold medal and a World Baseball Classic championship with Samurai Japan.
And they didn’t just share a clubhouse, back in September Yoshida told the Herald that he and Yamamoto are close.
MLB Notes: Yoshida excited by prospect of former teammate Yamamoto coming to MLB
In addition to a massive contract, whoever signs Yamamoto will also have to pay a posting fee to Orix. According to MLB.com, that fee will be 20% of the first $25 million plus 17.5% of the next $25 million and 15% of the total guaranteed value exceeding $50 million.
If Yamamoto signs for exactly $200 million, the fee would be approximately $31.9 million, and if he signed for $225 million it would be $35.6 million. With that in mind, whoever lands Yamamoto could easily wind up paying close to $250 million in total.
That might seem like a lot for someone who has never thrown a pitch in MLB, but when you’re dealing with a 25-year-old with ace potential, that kind of price tag could wind up being a bargain.
Woodruff gamble
Last weekend’s non-tender deadline came and went with little fanfare, as most of the players who became available were either role players or injured relievers. There was one notable exception, however, presenting clubs with a unique high-risk, high-reward opportunity.
Brandon Woodruff, who recently underwent shoulder surgery and isn’t expected to pitch in 2024, was non-tendered by the Milwaukee Brewers and is now a free agent. The 30-year-old right-hander was entering his final year of arbitration and was projected to earn approximately $11 million next season, but rather than pay Woodruff not to pitch knowing he’d hit the open market next winter anyway, the Brewers decided to cut bait with the two-time All-Star.
Milwaukee Brewers starting pitcher Brandon Woodruff throws during the second inning of a game against the Miami Marlins on May 15, 2022 in Miami. (AP Photo/Lynne Sladky)
As a result Woodruff is now free to sign with any team, and he’ll have a lot of suitors despite his injury.
Woodruff has been excellent over his first seven MLB seasons. Since debuting in 2017, Woodruff has gone 46-26 with a 3.10 career ERA and 788 strikeouts in 680.1 innings. He finished fifth in the NL Cy Young vote in 2021 after posting a 2.56 ERA with 211 strikeouts over 179.1 innings, and this past season he had a 2.28 ERA over 11 starts despite missing four months midseason due to injury before being shut down for good in September.
Shoulder surgery is obviously a very serious concern, but at his best Woodruff has been among the best pitchers in baseball. He will most likely land a two-year deal, with clubs essentially paying him to rehab this year in hopes of securing a front-of-the-rotation arm for 2025.
Though the situation wasn’t apples to apples, the Red Sox did find some success taking a similar approach with James Paxton these past two years. Could the club try to play the long game again by signing Woodruff? There’s certainly merit to the idea.
Cardinals discount
The Red Sox aren’t the only team in the market for innings-eaters. The St. Louis Cardinals were widely expected to target starting pitching this offseason as well. They didn’t waste any time, but fortunately for Boston the Cardinals got their shopping done early in the bargain aisle, leaving the big fish still on the board.
This week St. Louis signed veterans Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson to a pair of one-year deals with club options for 2025, with Lynn’s deal reportedly for $10 million and Gibson’s $12 million. The pair combined to throw 375 innings last season and have reliably taken the mound every fifth day for years, but they’re also both 36 and have seen their performance begin trending downwards.
Gibson is the more promising of the two. Last season he made 33 starts for the Baltimore Orioles and posted a 4.73 ERA over 192 innings for the AL East champions, but he also led the league in hits allowed with 198. Lynn, who previously pitched for St. Louis between 2011-17, made 32 starts split between the Chicago White Sox and Los Angeles Dodgers and posted a 5.73 ERA over 183.2 innings while allowing an MLB-high 44 home runs.
Boston knows better than most how important it is to have starters who can provide volume, but all things considered these aren’t guys who would’ve been on top of any Red Sox fan’s wish list.
Big Hall of Fame class
Over the past few years the baseball writers have been relatively stingy with their Hall of Fame votes, with only Scott Rolen and David Ortiz earning induction to Cooperstown between 2021-23. That should change this winter, and when the vote is announced in January we could see as many as four new Hall of Famers earn their call.
Adrián Beltré is a lock. The legendary third baseman compiled 3,166 hits, 477 home runs and five Gold Gloves and should cruise to induction on his first ballot. Who could join him is where things get interesting.
Last year Todd Helton fell short of induction by only 11 votes on his fifth ballot, and Billy Wagner also made a big push, falling 27 votes short. History shows guys who come that close almost always get in eventually, and while Helton’s been penalized by voters who believe his gaudy numbers are a product of Coors Field, he should finally get his call this year.
Colorado Rockies first baseman Todd Helton during a spring training game against the San Francisco Giants on March 7, 2012 in Scottsdale, Ariz. (AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez)
Wagner could end up needing to wait one more year, and next year would be his 10th and last on the ballot, but the longtime closer seemed to gain enough momentum last winter that it wouldn’t be crazy to imagine him cracking the 75% threshold, too.
Gary Sheffield, who reached 55% last year, has a tougher mountain to climb in his final year of eligibility. Carlos Beltran (46.5%) is probably also a year or two away.
The other newcomer with a shot at joining Beltré as a first-ballot inductee is Joe Mauer. The former Minnesota Twins catcher put together a 10-year run that ranked among the best by any catcher in MLB history, including three batting titles, three Gold Gloves, six All-Star nods and an MVP. The knock on Mauer is injuries forced him from catcher to first base over his last five years, and that stretch was pretty underwhelming.
Will voters hold that against him? I don’t have a Hall of Fame vote, but if I did I know he’d have my support. Mauer performed at an all-time level for an entire decade and finished with a .306 career average, 2,123 hits and nearly as many career walks (939) as strikeouts (1,034). His 55.2 career wins above replacement also ranks ninth all-time among catchers, and everyone else in the top 11 is already in the Hall of Fame.
How he and the others track as writers begin making their ballots public will be fascinating to watch in the coming weeks, but one way or another it’s a good bet Beltré will have some company on stage in Cooperstown next summer.
‘Robot umps’ likely not coming
This year MLB implemented revolutionary new pace-of-play rules designed to help speed up the game, with the pitch clock being the most impactful change. Those were implemented after years of testing in the minor leagues, but another equally radical change will reportedly get another year of fine-tuning before it also makes its MLB debut.
Recently at the MLB owners meetings, Red Sox chairman Tom Werner told Michael Silverman of The Boston Globe that the league is still discussing the Automated Ball-Strike System but will likely opt for another year of testing before bringing it to the big leagues. That echoes similar comments made earlier this summer by Commissioner Rob Manfred.
The Automated Ball-Strike System, or ABS for short, is an electronic strike zone calibrated to each individual batter that uses pitch tracking technology to determine whether a pitch is a ball or a strike. That call is then relayed to the home plate umpire, who signals the call on the field. The league has tested two versions of the system, one that uses ABS for every pitch and another “challenge” system where the umpire calls pitches like normal but batters, pitchers and catchers can issue challenges similar to tennis players on boundary calls in big tournaments.
Both systems were tested in Triple-A this year, but given all the game’s other recent changes and the sensitive nature of altering something as fundamental as calling balls and strikes, the league is taking its time to make sure every potential issue is resolved before bringing the electronic strike zone to the majors.