Patriots-Giants preview: How Bill Belichick and Mac Jones can end their losing streak
It used be the Patriots played their best football down the stretch, gaining steam toward an annual playoff run.
“Real football,” they said, started after Thanksgiving.
Well, here we are.
The Patriots (2-8) likely cannot salvage their season, but they can begin to string solid performances together Sunday. The Giants (3-8) are plagued with more problems than even Bill Belichick’s bunch, including a third-string rookie quarterback, poor weapons and a defense that can’t stop anyone. That doesn’t mean the Pats should waltz into a win, even if they are 3.5-point favorites.
But if they intend to start playing their best football, Sunday is the ideal place to start. Here’s what to watch for:
When the Patriots run
As well as the Patriots ran the ball two weeks ago against the Colts, racking up a season-high 167 yards in Germany, there’s a chance they build on that performance Sunday.
The Giants’ run defense ranks among the league’s worst by most metrics. Meanwhile, Rhamondre Stevenson has finally discovered his old form, breaking 10 tackles over the last month, which matches his total from the previous six games combined. Stevenson and Ezekiel Elliott still lag in the traditional stats, but are powering one of the NFL’s most efficient rushing attacks by success rate and short-yardage measures.
For the Pats to continue growing their run game, they must block Giants nose tackle Dexter Lawrence. The 6-foot-4, 340-pounder is a menace in the middle with four sacks and 17 QB hits. As a run stuffer, he rates as the second-best run-stopping defensive in tackle, per Pro Football Focus.
New England Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson (38) celebrates his touchdown with Hunter Henry during the fourth quarter of a game against the Dolphins in Foxboro. (Nancy Lane/Boston Herald)
“He’s a really good player,” Pats center David Andrews said of Lawrence. “He’s big, physical, can rush the passer, stop the run. I think any time you’re playing someone like that, you definitely want to try to not let them wreck the game and understand his strengths and weaknesses. He’s a really good player.”
When the Patriots pass
If there’s one thing the Patriots can bank on seeing Sunday, it’s blitz pressure.
Giants defensive coordinator Wink Martindale long loved sending extra rushers at opposing quarterbacks. New York owns the NFL’s fourth-highest blitz rate at 36.9%. Most opponents have trusted their cornerbacks to win 1-on-1 against the Patriots receivers, and the Giants should be no different.
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That will put extra pressure on rookie slot receiver Demario Douglas and tight ends Hunter Henry and Mike Gesicki to win over the middle of the field, where Patriots quarterbacks like to throw most often, especially against pressure. Not only must they uncover, but anticipate the blitz before it gets home.
“It’s tough,” Henry said. “They give a lot of different looks on every down, where a lot of teams sometimes just mix that in on third down, they do it throughout the whole game; no matter the down or distance or the personnel. So, it’s a tall task.
“And they do it with different personnel (groupings), as well. With the front they have, it makes it very, very hard, and then because of that, they’ve caused a lot of turnovers.”
When the Giants run
Two words: find Barkley.
Giants running back Saquon Barkley dominates carries, taking 105 more rushes than any other runner despite missing three games earlier this season. Barkley is averaging just 4.3 yards per carry, but remains a threat to take it the distance every time he touches the ball.
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Patriots defenders stressed the need to play to their leverage against him, relying on each other as opposed to single-handedly trying to take on Barkley’s speed and/or power.
“He’s a dangerous back, so we’ve got to make sure that we wrap up and gang tackle whenever he has the ball in his hands,” Pats linebacker Jahlani Tavai said. “So it’ll be crucial for us to make sure we practice that. … Like I said before, tackling is a big thing for us and we’re gonna make sure that we emphasize it on every drill.”
When the Giants pass
Rookie quarterback Tommy DeVito won his first start for the Giants last week, when he threw three touchdowns at Washington. DeVito is completing just 61.3% of his passes for 506 yards, six touchdowns and three interceptions.
It used to be a safe assumption that Belichick could spin any rookie quarterback into a tizzy. But Giants head coach Brian Daboll, who’s bested his old boss as the Browns offensive coordinator and more recently leading the Bills’ offense before he left for New York, knows the ins and outs of the Patriots’ thinking. Because of that, Belichick expects Daboll to open his bag of tricks to help give DeVito an edge.
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“Brian’s a really good play-caller, does a really good job keeping us off balance. We saw that certainly in multiple games against him in Buffalo,” Belichick said this week. “We’re going to have to do a really good job there being disciplined, following our rules and be ready for the unexpected for anything from no huddle to gadget plays to just their normal conventional game planning.”
After Barkley, the Giants’ top pass-catchers to know are Darius Slayton (team-leading 419 yards) and second-year slot receiver Wan’Dale Robinson (239).
Game pick
Patriots 13, Giants 9