The Patriots’ loss in Germany revealed to the football-watching world what has quietly been evident in New England for weeks.

After tailoring the offense to his quarterback, Bill O’Brien has been calling games around Mac Jones, not through him.

Nowadays, the Patriots run rudimentary pass concepts almost exclusively. They wield their run game like a hammer whenever possible. The majority of Jones’ downfield throws are schemed play-action shots behind an increasing amount of max protection to simplify his reads and keep him comfortable.

O’Brien has baby-proofed the offense, yet Jones still bangs his head and melts down. He might have lost the coaching staff’s trust for good Sunday. The Patriots have lost two, perhaps three, games this season because of him. He’s been benched three times.

Not even box-score scouting can save Jones. Remember: almost 20% of Jones’ passing yards came off a meaningless completion before the half to Demario Douglas, Had that pass instead fallen incomplete on a Hail Mary, he finishes 14-of-20 for 140 yards and an interception.

On average, Jones’ passes traveled 3.3 yards downfield. He completed two passes outside the middle of the field and none further than 11 yards downfield. Would you trust a quarterback like that?

Here’s the catch: There are at least two passers the Pats trust even less: Bailey Zappe and Will Grier.

It can’t be repeated enough Belichick cut Zappe, his only available backup, in late August. No one claimed him. He was also a healthy scratch a month ago at Las Vegas. Zappe’s season stat line reads 10-of-25 for 104 yards and an interception, and his deeper numbers paint the portrait of a quarterback who may be even more inaccurate than that.

At least he’s seen the field. Grier is a break-glass-in-case-of-emergency option, a scout-team quarterback

This is why, for the 2-8 Patriots, the worst may be yet to come. There’s virtually no case for starting Jones again, and yet their options behind him are worse. The Patriots should have beaten the Colts, and failed because of their quarterbacks.

Around Jones and Zappe, one defender enjoyed the best game of his career, the Pats offensive line took significant strides, and a rising linebacker keeps making plays.

Here’s what else film revealed about Sunday’s loss:

Mac Jones

15-of-20 for 170 yards, INT

New England Patriots quarterback Mac Jones (10) reacts after throwing an interception during an NFL football game between the New England Patriots and the Indianapolis Colts at Deutsche Bank Park Stadium in Frankfurt, Germany, Sunday, Nov. 12, 2023. (AP Photo/Steve Luciano)

Accurate throw percentage: 84.3%

Under pressure: 4-of-6 for 47 yards, 5 sacks

Against the blitz: 3-of-3, 47 yards, sack

Behind the line: 5-of-5 for 79 yards

0-9 yards downfield: 9-of-11 for 80 yards

10-19 yards downfield: 1-of-3 for 11 yards, INT

20+ yards downfield: N/A

Notes: What more can be said?

His fourth-quarter interception ranks among the worst throws of his career, and may be No. 1. He also took five sacks in the first half alone, two of which happened more than three seconds after the snap. Jones continues to contend with a porous offensive line and the NFL’s worst receiving corps, context that cannot be omitted in his evaluation.

But there’s a reason the locker room sounds lukewarm about him, and the coaching staff has lost faith. He’s completed one deep pass in four weeks. Everything must be over the middle and too often defined with a clear window, and even then there’s no guarantee he’ll pull the trigger.

In a video clip that went viral from the third quarter, O’Brien ripped Jones for missing multiple receivers on a play that led to a near sack. He had more than three seconds before pressure reached him on that play, and his solution was a dangerous flip into the flat as he was going down. O’Brien had opened that drive with six straight runs and later called a draw on third-and-5, deliberately taking the ball from Jones’ hands.

Sunday’s performance was a droplet in a sea of bad showings. It can’t continue.

Critical areas

Turnovers: Patriots 2, Colts 1
Explosive play rate: Patriots 2.9%, Colts 5.5%
Success rate: Patriots 52%, Colts 43%
Red-zone efficiency: Patriots 0-4, Colts 1-1
Defensive pressure rate: Patriots 32.3%, Colts 31%

Offense

New England Patriots running back Ezekiel Elliott (15) carries as Indianapolis Colts safety Rodney Thomas II (25) pursues in the first half of an NFL football game in Frankfurt, Germany Sunday, Nov. 12, 2023. (AP Photo/Michael Probst)

Game plan

Personnel breakdown: 67% snaps in 12 personnel, 22% of snaps in 11 personnel, 9% snaps in 13 personnel, 2% in 21 personnel.***
Personnel production: 4.6 yards/play in 12 personnel, 5.0 yards/play in 11 personnel, 5.3 yards/play in 13 personnel, 19.0 yards/play in 21 personnel.
First-down down play-calls: 55% run (5.0 yards per play), 45% pass (5.7 yards per play)
Play-action rate: 14.8%

Player stats

Broken tackles: RB Ezekiel Elliott 4, RB Rhamondre Stevenson 3
Pressure allowed: RG Sidy Sow 2 (sack, QB hit), LG Cole Strange 2 (QB hit, hurry), Team 2 (sack, hurry), C David Andrews (sack), RT Mike Onwenu (sack), Stevenson (sack), LT Vederian Lowe (QB hit), LT Conor McDermott (hurry)
Run stuffs allowed: Onwenu 2, Lowe
Penalties: WR JuJu Smith-Schuster (illegal shirt, false start), McDermott (false start)
Drops: Stevenson

Notes

New England Patriots quarterback Mac Jones (10) passes under pressure in the second half of an NFL football game against the Indianapolis Colts in Frankfurt, Germany Sunday, Nov. 12, 2023. (AP Photo/Martin Meissner)

Four red-zone trips. Six points. That’s the starting point for any explanation of how and why the Patriots offense failed Sunday.
The Patriots bulldozed the Colts on their longest drives of the game — 89 and 61 yards long — by pounding away through Rhamondre Stevenson and Ezekiel Elliott.
But steady rushing — the Pats’ chief game plan Sunday — can only take only take you so far in the modern game, particularly with a panicky passer and/or when facing strong red-zone defense.
Jones ended the Pats’ four red-zone trips by taking a sack, flipping a hurried left-handed incompletion at Stevenson to avoid a sack, throwing a near interception and firing a real pick.

All other possessions went scoreless after suffering from a negative play or penalty, more evidence the Patriots cannot overcome minor adversity or generate explosive plays.
That goes for Stevenson and Elliott, too. They accounted for 64.5% of the team’s touches, yet didn’t record a single explosive play or rush over 10 yards. The Pats’ running game is somehow simultaneously one of the NFL’s most efficient and least explosive.
Blame for lack of explosiveness, though, belongs more with the passing game. Demario Douglas was the only wideout to see multiple targets, out-pacing all other receivers 9-2; an embarrassing margin.
Coaching blunder: Douglas didn’t see his first target until midway through the second quarter. He should have schemed touches early and often.
Every receiver except Douglas continues at separating and gaining yards after the catch. JuJu Smith-Schuster had two penalties to one catch in his new role as No. 2 receiver, and Kayshon Boutte earned a single target in 38 snaps.
Boutte effectively replaced Tyquan Thornton as the No. 3 receiver. Thornton didn’t see any snaps. He can safely and sadly be labeled a bust after a season and a half.
Perhaps worst of all, the Colts played base zone coverages virtually the entire game. Any time Jones saw man-to-man, he turned to Douglas, Stevenson or Mike Gesicki; the surest sign of his lack of confidence in any other receivers.
In addition to hard running from Stevenson and Elliott, one change powered the Patriots to a season-high 167 rushing yards: superb second-level blocking.

Guards Cole Strange and Sidy Sow routinely reached linebackers and erased them 1-on-1 to create wide open running lanes. O’Brien also called several runs featuring “insert” blocks by tight ends, who aligned on the edge of the line and then looped behind and inside a blocking at the snap, allowing them to reach linebackers from an inside gap.
All-Pro defensive tackle DeForest Buckner handled Strange several times, though, and notched one run stuff and a hurry at his expense.
At left tackle, practice-squad veteran Conor McDermott more than held his own as a pinch-hitter and played through injury on the final drive.
Play-calling quibble: O’Brien hit two nice screens to Elliott for 39 yards and a well-disguised 7-yarder to Stevenson. Why not more?

Defense

New England Patriots cornerback Myles Bryant (27) celebrates his interception in the second half of an NFL football game against the Indianapolis Colts in Frankfurt, Germany Sunday, Nov. 12, 2023. (AP Photo/Michael Probst)

Game plan

Personnel breakdown: 42% three-corner nickel package, 35% dime, 21% three-safety nickel, 2% dollar.****
Blitz rate: 20.9%
Blitz efficacy: 6.5 yards allowed per dropback, 50% success rate allowed

Player stats

Interceptions: S Jabrill Peppers 2, DB Myles Bryant, LB Mack Wilson
Pass deflections: LB Jahlani Tavai, DL Deatrich Wise, DT Lawrence Guy
Pressure: DL Christian Barmore 4 (QB hit, 3 hurries), Tavai 2 (hurries), OLB Josh Uche (hurry), Peppers (hurry), Team (hurry)
Run stuffs: Barmore 2, S Kyle Dugger
Missed tackles: Bryant
Penalties: Tavai (unnecessary roughness), CB Shaun Wade (holding)

Notes

All told, this was a winning performance.
The Patriots allowed three fewer red-zone trips, fewer yards per play and posted a similar pressure rate. The only touchdown drive had two easily identifiable causes that were intertwined: the Colts’ no-huddle rushing and the Patriots playing through strangely small personnel.
After Gardner Minshew converted a third-and-long snap on their opening series, the Colts hurried to the line to run the ball against the Pats’ dime package (six defensive backs). Jonathan Taylor rushed eight straight times from midfield to the Patriots’ 11-yard line, during which time they finally subbed back into bigger nickel personnel.

Toward the end of the Taylor’s rushing streak, safety Adrian Phillips subbed in for injured linebacker Mack Wilson. Even with practice-squad linebacker Calvin Munson available, the coaching staff kept Phillips on the field for early-down plays and goal-line defense. Why?!
Taylor, of course, scored on fourth-and-goal from the 1-yard line, and Munson took over for the next series until Wilson returned.
The only major coaching adjustment after that was the same halftime change a week earlier against Washington: backing off the blitz. Minshew went 4-of-6 for 39 yards against extra rushers in the first half, and didn’t see a single one in the second half.
The Patriots have become one of the least effective blitzing teams in the NFL over the last month. Defensive play-caller Steve Belichick isn’t even getting home on simulated pressures AKA 4-man rushes that drop a defender off the line of scrimmage and replace him with a blitzing linebacker, corner or safety.

The Pats also ran one of their highest rates of zone coverage this season, a reflection on their lack of confidence in the cornerbacks.
Shaun Wade started for the second straight game and became an immediate target for the Colts. He had an up-and-down performance, including one of three Patriots TFLs. He also allowed three  catches.
Wade replaced Jack Jones, who the Patriots planned to waive Monday for waning performance and poor attitude. Jones allowed two catches on his second series and didn’t take any snaps in the second half.
On a lighter note: defensive tackle Christian Barmore dominated. No Patriots defender has performed better or more consistently since the start of October.
Barmore posted four pressures, two run stuffs and multiple run stops. He won over the nose, as a 3-technique and on the edge.

One of Barmore’s hurries affected Minshew on his third-quarter interception. That pick started with a deflection by Jahlani Tavai, who’s probably second to Barmore for best Pats defensive player over the last six weeks.
Josh Uche tallied just one hurry for a second straight week, giving him two pressures in his last 34 snaps. Are they sure he wasn’t worth offloading for a late-round pick at the trade deadline?
While the Patriots defense continues to out-perform the offense, it, too, is combating a significant talent deficit most weeks. No quality defense can start players like Wade, Wilson, Munson, Anfernee Jennings and others for long stretches and expect to excel. The front office must reload here, too.

Studs

DL Christian Barmore

His best game as a Patriot. Barmore was a wrecking ball from the first quarter to the last drive.

RB Rhamondre Stevenson

Where would this offense be without Stevenson? He was a true workhorse Sunday, touching the ball on more than 40% of their offensive snaps.

Duds

QB Mac Jones

Bad. Bad, bad, bad.

WR JuJu Smith-Schuster

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Statistics for passing depth, broken tackles and missed tackles courtesy of Pro Football Focus.

*Explosive plays are defined as runs of 12-plus yards and passes of 20-plus yards. Explosive play rate is one of the most strongly correlated metrics with wins and losses.

**Success rate is an efficiency metric measuring how often an offense stays on schedule. A play is successful when it gains at least 40% of yards-to-go on first down, 60% of yards-to-go on second down and 100% of yards-to-go on third or fourth down.

***11 personnel = one running back, one tight end; 12 personnel = one running back, two tight ends; 13 personnel = one running back, three tight ends; 21 = two halfbacks, one tight end.  

****Nickel defense = five defensive backs; dime defense = six defensive backs; dollar defense = seven defensive backs.