Perhaps if the Chicago Bears were not in the Thursday night national television slot for the second time in five weeks, Justin Fields would have been able to give it a go against the Carolina Panthers.

But coach Matt Eberflus announced undrafted rookie Tyson Bagent will make his fourth consecutive start, saying Fields is not medically cleared to return from a dislocated right thumb after another limited practice session Wednesday.

It’s a shame because the last time Fields was in prime time, he threw four touchdown passes and accounted for 339 yards in a 40-20 drubbing of the Washington Commanders at FedEx Field. That effort came a week after Fields also threw four touchdown passes in a loss to the Denver Broncos, becoming the first quarterback in franchise history to do that in consecutive games. Those eight TD passes account for nearly 23% of Fields’ career total.

It’s a solid bet Fields will return for the Nov. 19 NFC North game at Ford Field against the Detroit Lions. At that point seven games will remain in a season that began with intense focus on whether the former first-round pick is indeed the franchise’s quarterback of the future.

It’s looking increasingly unlikely the Bears will ride with Fields into 2024 and beyond, and it’s unfortunate the thumb injury has cost him a month to provide evidence to the contrary.

Thirty-one starts into his career, Fields remains plagued by some of the same pitfalls that were cause for concern in his 2021 debut. He struggles to diagnose defenses and get the ball out in a timely manner, resulting in too many unnecessary hits and negative plays. This is the primary issue that fouls up many young quarterbacks.

General manager Ryan Poles prioritized improving the offense around Fields to give him the best chance to succeed — and to give the front office a true measure of a player it inherited from the previous regime. The offensive line is significantly improved with right guard Teven Jenkins finally healthy. The skill-position talent, led by wide receiver DJ Moore, tight end Cole Kmet and a deep backfield, is more than enough to win with.

Surely Poles, his staff and the coaches will weigh the entirety of Fields’ three seasons at the end of the year when plotting a direction for the franchise. Yes, that means Fields still has time to influence the outcome. A decision on the fifth-year option for 2025 in Fields’ contract is due by May 2. With the Bears owning what projects to be two high first-round picks, it’s easy to figure the plan will include selecting a new quarterback.

There was a flash of improvement when Fields had the eight touchdowns and only one interception against the Broncos and Commanders, but the next time out against the Minnesota Vikings on Oct. 15, he was clobbered from behind by outside linebacker D.J. Wonnum on the first snap of the game.

The Vikings crowded the line with six defenders, and the Bears were in an empty formation and blocking to the right, creating an apparent opportunity on the blind side for a free rusher — the quarterback’s responsibility. Fields had Moore and fullback Khari Blasingame open for short gains on the front side. He hesitated, held the ball, started to turn to the back side and was sacked.

“Half the time, they blitz everybody,” offensive coordinator Luke Getsy said the next week. “Half the time, they don’t. But also you get to see — we were in 21 personnel (two running backs, one tight end, two wide receivers) — so you got to see kind of what their plan was. Were they going to go big, or were they going to go sub-defense? They went sub-defense.

“Justin did a great job. He checked the protection. He just didn’t react the right way. When you make the protection and you know you have the guy free, you’ve got to drift right and throw it. And he didn’t do that. But he did the hard part. He recognized the defense that they had never shown us. He handled it with the right protection adjustment. He just didn’t handle the next part of it right.”

The Vikings sacked him twice in the first five snaps and knocked him out of the game in the third quarter with the thumb injury when he tried to buy time — holding the ball for more than six seconds against a three-man rush — and was hit from behind.

It looked eerily like Fields’ first career start against the Cleveland Browns in Week 3 of 2021, when coach Matt Nagy designed a game plan to help Fields identify the coverages pre-snap. It was a complete failure. The offensive line was overrun, Fields was sacked nine times and the offense managed a meager 47 yards on 42 snaps.

“I heard about the criticism of Luke Getsy: ‘Why do you make that call?’” said one veteran scout who did an extensive review of the Bears earlier this season. “Because it’s a successful call. The quarterback just has to get the ball out of his hands. It’s a good play. They’re in off, soft man coverage. They’re all open. He pulls the ball down. I don’t know what that part of it is.

“He’s gotten a little tougher stepping up into the rush, staying in the pocket and stepping up and letting that ball go against duress. He’s been hit in the mouth a few times, which we didn’t see in the past. Really, he was always backing out or escaping. He got better at that and then against Minnesota he regressed. There’s just no consistency in decision-making ability, instincts in the pocket as far as where to move to, where it’s coming from, pre-snap reads, processing what he sees pre-snap to post-snap — there’s a disconnect in there somewhere.

“I want to like him. The guy has a huge arm and he’s a rare athlete. The rest of it hasn’t come together. Not on a consistent basis. Won’t turn the ball loose. Pulls the ball down on simple reads.”

A member of Nagy’s coaching staff confirmed that the plan against the Browns two years ago was designed to simplify things for Fields and provide a road map, if you will, of where the ball needed to go. In the immediate aftermath, it was apparent that strategy bombed and there simply wasn’t a lot of help around Fields on the roster.

“Matt was trying to give Justin a clean picture,” the assistant said. “Thought it would help him see the issues easier if everyone was removed from the box. In hindsight, it didn’t really matter.”

Say what you want about Nagy, but what the Bears did against the Vikings in Week 6 wasn’t anything out of the ordinary and was designed to help thwart a pressure-happy defense.

Eventually, a young quarterback has to prove he can play from the pocket and deliver the ball on time. Only so many things can be defined through design and play calling. An offense cannot simply live with the quarterback on the edge of the defense, where Fields has proved capable of big plays.

There are five or six instances a game in which the quarterback has to make a big-time throw from the pocket when the picture has changed from pre-snap to post-snap. He has to find an open target and deliver the ball. For the top 10 quarterbacks in the league, that is routine.

The scout said one other major takeaway he had from studying Fields was that he’s reluctant to throw the ball in the middle of the field, pointing out the big plays against the Commanders to Moore came along the boundary.

“He will not throw a post,” the scout said. “He has pulled that ball down repeatedly when it comes to open receivers over the middle of the field. It happened to him against Minnesota. He turned down three different wide-open posts against Kansas City. Stared at them and whether he can’t read the safety’s shoulder position, I don’t know. The safety is turned away from the receiver, he’s turned his shoulders to the sideline and the post is going right up the middle of the field. There’s no way the safety can make the play. He pulls it down. Did it three times.

“I don’t know if the majority of his picks have happened just over that linebacker level and he’s not confident lofting it or he’s had some safety picks. He won’t turn it loose there. Now, the boundary, that’s where he’s comfortable.”

The Bears have been clear that Fields will be the starter when he’s healthy. This is the 10th game he will miss because of injuries in his career, plus one more for illness. The last seven games is a good stretch for him to show where he stands three years into his career. Of those seven opponents — including two games against the Lions — only the Vikings (18th) and Arizona Cardinals (17th) rank in the bottom half of the league in pass defense.

Maybe Fields can stack some impressive outings like he had against the Broncos and Commanders, but history tells you it’s incredibly rare for quarterbacks with as much experience as he has to go from being so inconsistent to inspiring confidence. Especially for a team like the Bears that likely will be picking near the top of the draft.

And a Bagent-led victory against the 1-7 Panthers would improve the chances of Carolina’s pick that the Bears own winding up at No. 1 or No. 2.

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