MINNESOTA at PURDUE

When: 2:30 p.m. Saturday
Where: Ross-Ade Stadium, West Lafayette, Ind.
TV: NBC
Radio: KFAN, 100.3 FM
Weather: 50 degrees, sunny, 5 mph east wind
Betting spread: Purdue, -1

Records: Minnesota (5-4, 3-3) coughed up a 26-21 lead in final minute to lose 27-26 to Illinois on Saturday. Purdue (2-7, 1-5) has lost four straight since a 44-19 win over Illinois in late September. Gophers can reach bowl eligibility with one more win; Boilermakers can’t go bowling this postseason.

History: The Gophers had won four straight against Purdue before the 20-10 home loss last October. P.J Fleck has never faced new Boilermakers head coach Ryan Walters, but Walters’ defenses at Illinois had success against Minnesota in 2021 and 2022.

Key matchup: Gophers offensive tackles vs. Purdue defensive ends. Nic Scourton and Kydran Jenkins share the Big Ten lead with seven sacks apiece, while Aireontae Ersery and Quinn Carroll have had up and down pass-blocking grades from Pro Football Focus.

Who has the edge?

Gophers offense vs. Purdue defense: Minnesota had trouble running the ball against Illinois last week, averaging 3.3 yards per rush. Walters, a former Illini defensive coordinator, has brought similar principles and play-calling to Purdue. … QB Athan Kaliakmanis had a 90.6 grade from PFF last week, fourth-highest in the nation, but he still needs to put together a full four quarters. The Boilermakers have some playmakers in the secondary in Cam Allen and Dillon Thieneman. Allen has 12 career interceptions. … Until last Saturday, only two Gophers had receiving touchdowns (Daniel Jackson’s seven and Le’Meke Brockington’s one). But Brevyn Spann-Ford and Elijah Spencer each recorded their first against the Illini. WR Corey Crooms will look to bounce back from his dropped TD vs. Illini. … DEs Jenkins has stacked up 40 pressures and Scourton has 29 this season. (Even Scourton’s lower total would lead Gophers’ defensive line.) Harbaugh said both of them have NFL futures and are “two of the best pass rushers we’ve seen.” They Gophers will likely try to chip them with tight ends and tailbacks. EDGE: Purdue 

Gophers defense vs. Purdue offense: Minnesota’s defense was torched by Illinois’ WR Isaiah Williams last week. He had a Big Ten-best 13 receptions for 131 yards and two touchdowns. Purdue will look to go to receiver Deion Burks nearly as much. DC Joe Rossi sees similar athleticism and speed in both wideouts and Rossi will need to find better ways to take Burks away from QB Hudson Card. … FS Tyler Nubin tied a U program record with 12 career INTs against Illinois, but he was a culprit in the game-losing TD, too. Look for Nubin to be more locked in as his Gopher career comes to a close. He had a game-sealing pick late in the win at Purdue in 2021. Card, a Texas transfer, has thrown eight INTs in nine games this year. … As a walk-on last year, RB Devin Mockabee had the first 100-yard rushing game of his career. Rossi noted Mocabee’s ability to make tackles miss. He has put up 558 yards in nine games this year. … Purdue lacks efficiency in pass game with 6.0 yards per attempt, which is 124th in the nation. EDGE: Gophers 

Special teams: K Dragan Kesich was named semifinalist for Lou Gross award. He is 18 for 21 on the year, with a streak of 10 straight makes. … KR Tyrone Tracy took one to the house in the season-opening loss to Fresno State. The Gophers have been susceptible to allowing a bing return once in a while. EDGE: Gophers 

Prediction: This is the best chance in the final three games for the Gophers to reach bowl eligibility. But the betting line shows this as a toss-up and given Minnesota’s defensive letdowns against Big Ten West it’s hard to see otherwise. Gophers, 24-23

Related Articles

Gophers men’s basketball coach Ben Johnson higher on recruiting class than national rankings

Gophers football: Ski-U-Jah! Minnesota celebrates breakout play of Jah Joyner

Key Gophers football commitment Koi Perich gets offer from Ohio State

What’s biggest difference in Gophers men’s basketball after last two season openers?

AP survey finds 55 of 69 schools in major college football now sell alcohol at stadiums on game day