New chief baseball officer Craig Breslow has a lot of work to do, and coming off a third last-place finish in four years the Red Sox are looking at a busy offseason.

That being said, Breslow isn’t exactly inheriting a complete tear-down either.

As disappointing as this past season was, the club’s emerging core of talented young players collectively took a big step forward. Between those standouts and the impact players who remain under contract, the Red Sox may only be a handful of big moves away from reasserting themselves as playoff contenders.

Even with much of the roster locked in, there are still a number of key players whose futures remain uncertain.

So who is likely to return? Who does the club need to make a decision on? Who do Red Sox fans need to follow as the offseason ramps up in the coming weeks? Here’s a complete breakdown of the roster, including those under contract, those who are either free agents or arbitration-eligible, and how the pieces should all fit together.

Contract figures listed are courtesy of Spotrac and media reports and reflect the deal’s remaining length and value. Arbitration figures are based on MLB Trade Rumors’ estimates, and free agent figures are based on the player’s most recent contract.

Under contract

Rafael Devers (10 years, $313.5 million), Trevor Story (4, $95m), Masataka Yoshida (4, $74.4m), Chris Sale (1, $27.5m), Garrett Whitlock (3, $16.5m), Kenley Jansen (1, $16m), Chris Martin (1, $7.5m), Rob Refsnyder (1, $1.85m)

The Red Sox currently have eight players under contract for 2024 and beyond, and next season they will collectively earn approximately $126.77 million. Three of those players are signed with Boston for at least four years, most notably Rafael Devers, whose 10-year, $313.5 million contract extension is set to officially begin.

Boston also has two of its other top hitters — Trevor Story and Masataka Yoshida — locked up long term, and top relievers Kenley Jansen and Chris Martin aren’t going anywhere either. Chris Sale is now entering the final year of his five-year extension, and though he’s battled injuries throughout that contract he is currently healthy and for now should slot into next season’s starting rotation.

The other two with a modicum of certainty are Garrett Whitlock and Rob Refsnyder. Whitlock agreed to an early extension in April 2022 that could keep him in Boston through 2028 if the Red Sox eventually exercise a pair of future club options, and the team has expressed hope they can reach similar deals with other young standouts like Triston Casas and Brayan Bello in the future.

As for Refsnyder, he’ll retain his current role as a lefty-killer off the bench.

Free agents

Justin Turner (2 years, $21.7 million, player option declined), Corey Kluber (1, $10m, club option declined), Adam Duvall (1, $7m), James Paxton (1, $4m), Adalberto Mondesi (1, $3.045m)

Unlike last winter the Red Sox do not have any free agents whose departure would cause widespread angst across New England. This time last year Red Sox fans were sweating over the looming (and eventual) departures of Xander Bogaerts and Nathan Eovaldi, but the club has already ensured history won’t repeat itself, locking up Devers to his big extension last December to avoid another year’s worth of drama and bad vibes.

That being said, the club does have one pressing decision to make.

Justin Turner declined his $13.4 million player option for 2024 on Friday, making the veteran designated hitter Boston’s most interesting free agent. The soon-to-be 39-year-old will receive a $6.7 million buyout, meaning he’ll only need a one-year, $6.7 million deal to make up the money he would’ve made by exercising his option. After hitting 23 home runs with 96 RBI last season, he’ll recoup that money easily.

Whether he’ll return to Boston is another matter. Turner quickly became a beloved figure in the clubhouse and within the organization and obviously still has plenty of gas in the tank, but his presence as the everyday DH also forced the Red Sox to play inferior defensive players in the field on a regular basis. If Turner signs elsewhere, the club could play Yoshida at DH more often and give Devers and Casas more days off their feet, which would both improve the team defensively and allow all three to keep their legs fresh deep into the season.

Turner’s future with the Red Sox is a real question that Breslow will have to figure out, but the other free agents are much more cut and dry.

Adam Duvall had a productive yet injury-plagued season, but after a summer trying to find regular playing time for four starting-caliber outfielders the Red Sox seem likely to consolidate at that position, and letting Duvall walk would be the simplest way to do that. James Paxton is in a similar boat. He was briefly and unexpectedly among Boston’s best starting pitchers this past spring but ran out of gas in the second half and doesn’t fit the profile of “reliable innings-eater” the rotation needs.

As for Adalberto Mondesi, due to lingering issues with his ACL rehab, he never played a game in Boston after being acquired for oft-injured reliever Josh Taylor. If the Red Sox do bring him back, it’ll be on a minor league deal.

Corey Kluber is unlikely to return after the Red Sox declined his $11 million club option. The 37-year-old endured a disappointing season and posted a 7.04 ERA in 15 appearances after originally slotting in as the club’s opening day starter. As of this writing the Red Sox have not announced a decision on left-handed reliever Joely Rodriguez’s $4.25 million club option, though after injuries limited him to just 10 appearances it seems unlikely the Red Sox will pick that option up.

Arbitration

Alex Verdugo ($9.2 million), Nick Pivetta ($6.9m), Luis Urias ($4.7m), Reese McGuire ($1.7m), John Schreiber ($1.3m)

Under MLB’s economic system, players with at least three years but fewer than six years of service time are eligible for salary arbitration if they haven’t already agreed to a long-term contract with their club. Those players negotiate their salary for the upcoming season with their club, and if the two sides can’t agree then each will submit a figure to a panel of arbitrators, who will pick one or the other (and nothing in between) to determine the player’s salary.

This year the Red Sox have five arbitration-eligible players, most notably Alex Verdugo, who is due to become a free agent after next season. In addition to their arbitration negotiations, the Red Sox are also expected to discuss a long-term extension with Verdugo, and if those talks break down then the outfielder could ultimately be traded.

The other name to watch here is Urias, whose projected salary likely exceeds what the Red Sox would be willing to pay him. That makes him Boston’s top candidate to be non-tendered, which means the club could decline to offer him a contract, making him a free agent.

The Red Sox have generally been good at reaching deals with their arbitration-eligible players and avoiding potentially contentious hearings, so expect Pivetta, McGuire and Schreiber to all be back next season without much of a fuss.

Pre-Arb/Team Control

Notable pitchers: Brayan Bello, Brennan Bernardino, Kutter Crawford, Tanner Houck, Zack Kelly, Mauricio Llovera, Chris Murphy, Josh Winckowski; Notable position players: Wilyer Abreu, Triston Casas, Bobby Dalbec, Jarren Duran, Ceddanne Rafaela, Pablo Reyes, Enmanuel Valdez, Connor Wong

This list is not comprehensive, there are about a dozen other pre-arb players with fewer than three years of service time who spent most of this past season in Triple-A or project as minor leaguers to start 2024 as well, but from a monetary perspective this group will barely move the needle when it comes to Boston’s total payroll.

Considering some of the names on this list, that’s great news for the Red Sox.

Brayan Bello was without question Boston’s top starting pitcher last season, and Triston Casas, Jarren Duran and Connor Wong were three of the club’s most impactful position players. The fact they cost Boston practically nothing gives the club a huge advantage and will free up resources for Breslow to go out and address the club’s holes through trades and free agency over the rest of this winter.

Takeaways

Unlike last winter, which saw tremendous roster turnover and several high-profile departures, the core of next year’s team is already in place.

The Red Sox are set at catcher with Wong and McGuire plus top prospect Kyle Teel on his way up through the minors, and the infield is mostly set in stone too. Devers will be the starting third baseman, Story the shortstop and Casas the first baseman, leaving only second as an area of concern. The club could roll with Pablo Reyes and rookie Enmanuel Valdez until top prospect Marcelo Mayer is ready for his MLB debut, or the Red Sox could seek a one-year veteran stopgap to shore up the position, with Toronto’s Whit Merrifield potentially an ideal fit.

The outfield is more in flux, but for now there are more bodies than the Red Sox have room for. Barring a trade or some other unexpected development, the club could stand pat and enter next season with the group of Yoshida, Duran and Verdugo, plus rookies Wilyer Abreu and Ceddanne Rafaela as internal alternatives.

Even the pitching staff isn’t too far from where it needs to be. The bullpen is in great hands with Kenley Jansen and Chris Martin back to lead the charge, and John Schreiber, Brennan Bernardino, Josh Winckowski and others should ensure there’s plenty of depth to cover innings behind them.

The trouble, as everyone knows, is the starting rotation. With no help coming through the farm system, the Red Sox need to bring in multiple proven starting pitchers to help support Bello, Sale and whoever emerges from the group of Nick Pivetta, Kutter Crawford, Tanner Houck and Whitlock.

Those high-end arms, plus a right-handed bat and maybe another left-handed reliever, should be at the top of Breslow’s wish list.