MLB Notes: Which Red Sox could be among All-Stars announced today?
No Red Sox players were selected as starters in the MLB All-Star fan vote, but several still have strong arguments to suit up for the American League on July 16. We know at least one will hear his name called Sunday when pitchers and reserves are announced at 5:30 p.m., but if things break Boston’s way you could make a case the Red Sox could have as many as five candidates with a realistic shot at making the team.
Who might those be, and what arguments do they have working in their favor? Let’s run down the list in order of most to least likely.
Tanner Houck, RHP
If there’s anyone who could be considered an All-Star lock, it’s Tanner Houck. The right-hander is enjoying the best season of his career and by all metrics ranks among the top pitchers in the AL through the first half.
Entering the weekend Houck ranked fifth in the AL in innings pitched (111), fifth in ERA (2.68), ninth in bWAR for pitchers (2.7), and 10th in strikeouts (106) and walks and hits per innings pitched (1.045). He’d pitched into the sixth inning in every outing up until last Saturday’s rare dud against San Diego and Friday’s rain-disrupted outing in New York, and he owns arguably the best pitching performance by any starter in the league this season, throwing a masterful complete-game shutout on April 17.
Depending on how he pitches in his remaining starts before the All-Star break, Houck could even have an argument to start the game.
The 28-year-old’s case stacks up well against the other top pitchers in the league, a group that includes Kansas City’s Seth Lugo, Baltimore’s Corbin Burnes, Detroit’s Tarik Skubal and Chicago’s Garrett Crochet, among others. Houck’s ascension is even more remarkable when you consider he may not have started the season in the rotation at all if not for Lucas Giolito’s season-ending injury, but he’s run with the opportunity and should be rewarded with his first career All-Star selection Sunday.
Jarren Duran, OF
By all accounts Duran should be an All-Star lock, but his candidacy is so unique that it wouldn’t be a shock if he winds up being the game’s biggest snub.
Why should Duran be an All-Star? As of this writing Duran is tied for second among all AL outfielders in bWAR with a 4.7 mark, behind only New York’s Aaron Judge, even with Yankees star Juan Soto and ahead of Cleveland’s Steven Kwan and Houston’s Kyle Tucker. He also leads the league with 10 triples, ranks second in doubles (24) and fourth in extra-base hits (44), behind only Judge, Gunnar Henderson and Bobby Witt Jr.
On top of that, Duran has played in every game this season and ranks third in the AL in hits (103), fifth in stolen bases (21) and sixth in runs scored (59). Defensively he’s been outstanding too; according to Fangraphs Duran ranks second among AL outfielders with 13 defensive runs saved and he also boasts a 1.3 defensive bWAR (fourth in the AL overall).
It would be crazy to leave that guy off the AL roster, right? Well, if Duran gets snubbed it will probably because he has two main factors working against him.
The first is name recognition. Duran only became a regular MLB player last season and hasn’t attained the star power of guys like Judge, Soto or Houston’s Tucker, even if his production has put him in that stratosphere. The other problem is his surface-level numbers don’t immediately jump off the page, as you wouldn’t necessarily see a guy who’s batting .282 with 10 home runs and 40 RBI and think “that guy’s an All-Star.”
Hopefully game will recognize game and the players will give Duran the support he lacked from the fans, but this will be a fascinating subplot to follow, both when the rosters are announced and when the inevitable injury substitutions fill out the final spots in the coming days.
Rafael Devers, 3B
Cleveland’s Jose Ramirez won the fan vote in a runaway, and even if he hadn’t he’d still have been the most deserving candidate to start at third base for the AL. After him it’s a toss-up between Rafael Devers and Baltimore’s Jordan Westburg, and though both players have arguments in their favor the Red Sox slugger deserves to get the nod if it comes down to an either-or choice.
As of this writing Devers leads all qualifying AL third baseman in OPS by a wide margin (.932), ranks second to Ramirez in home runs (18), total bases (158), runs scored (52) and RBI (51). Westburg, on the other hand, has the edge on Devers in bWAR (2.7 to 2.4) and hits (87 to 80).
Devers’ strongest argument in his favor, besides the sizable lead in homers and OPS, is his other rate stats. He’s batting .284 with a .372 on-base percentage and .560 slugging percentage, all of which are better than Westburg’s .280/.328/.508 line. He also boasts superior advanced metrics, per Statcast.
Westburg’s best counterargument is his defense. There’s no denying the Oriole has been the better fielder, but while it hasn’t been reflected in the numbers, Devers has made considerable strides defensively this season and hasn’t been the liability he’s been in the past.
Reasonable people could look at either Devers and Westburg and opt for either one, but how will the players vote? We’ll find out, but Devers may have the advantage here considering he’s a two-time All-Star who has been performing at a high level for eight years, whereas Westburg is only in year two and is just now beginning to establish himself at the game’s highest level.
Kenley Jansen, RP
The Red Sox actually have a bunch of relief pitchers who could plausibly make a case for being All-Stars, Brennan Bernardino and Zack Kelly chief among them. But since typically only closers get All-Star nods, the only one from the Red Sox bullpen with a shot is Kenley Jansen.
And he does have a real good shot.
Jansen was Boston’s lone All-Star representative last season and remains one of the most highly respected players in the game. He just tied Francisco Rodriguez for fifth on the all-time career saves list (437) and this year he’s putting together another excellent season.
As of this writing Jansen has a 2.08 ERA with and 34 strikeouts over 30.1 innings, and he’s converted 17 of his 18 save opportunities. His 94% save percentage is tied for the best in the AL among closers with at least 13 saves, and he ranks near the top of the league in most other relevant categories too.
The other factor working in Jansen’s favor is there aren’t many other closers who should be stone-cold locks.
We know Emmanuel Clase will make the team. Cleveland’s closer has been an All-Star each of the past two years and is running away with the AL saves lead again. It’s a good bet Oakland’s Mason Miller will be another. He’s posted 64 strikeouts in 36.2 innings and is exactly the type of young talent the commissioner’s office will want to showcase — plus, the Athletics need at least one All-Star and he’s by far their best candidate.
Outside of those two, can you really say anyone else has been definitively better than Jansen?
Baltimore’s Craig Kimbrel and New York’s Clay Holmes have a few more saves, but that’s also a product of them playing for better teams who have provided more save opportunities. Kimbrel might get a slight edge thanks to his higher strikeout rate, but Holmes has allowed way more baserunners and lately has been a complete mess.
Look no further than Friday night’s debacle and the way Yankees fans reacted after he gave up Masataka Yoshida’s game-tying home run with two outs and two strikes in the ninth.
Texas’ Kirby Yates and Los Angeles’ Carlos Estevez will have arguments as well, but by day’s end Jansen should hopefully be able to call himself a five-time All-Star.
Connor Wong, C
Baltimore’s Adley Rutschman was a no-brainer to start for the AL at catcher, but Connor Wong has quietly put together an exceptional second season as Boston’s starter and deserves to be in the All-Star conversation.
The problem for Wong is he might face the stiffest competition of the bunch.
Kansas City’s Salvador Perez is probably the favorite to earn the back-up catcher spot on the players’ ballot thanks to his superior counting stats and stronger name recognition. Perez has played in 24 more games than Wong, mainly because he only catches about half the time and otherwise slots in at first base or designated hitter. As a result he’s gotten nearly 100 more plate appearances and has built up a big edge in home runs (14 to 7), hits (87 to 71) and RBI (55 to 31).
But in terms of efficiency? Wong is up there with the best.
Of all AL players with at least 200 plate appearances (not just catchers), Wong ranks fourth in batting average (.316) and 11th in on-base percentage (.371). He tops Perez in those categories plus OPS (.820 to .800), and also Los Angeles’ Logan O’Hoppe, likely the other primary candidate for an AL catching spot.
Will Wong be an All-Star? Odds are probably not, but the fact that he’s played himself into the conversation in just his second full season as a starter speaks to his improvement and is a great sign for both his and the Red Sox future.
