Diagnosis, pitcher: Could Red Sox pitcher benefit from making Koufax-esque adjustment?
“We just have to throw strikes,” Alex Cora said by way of assessing Brayan Bello and the starting rotation, as a whole.
Solution, obvious.
Execution less so.
Bello owns a 5.55 ERA and minus-0.5 WAR through 14 starts this season. Over his nine starts since coming off the 15-day injured list on May 12, it’s a 7.05 ERA over 44 ⅔ innings. In June, the right-hander, 25, failed to complete five innings in three of five starts, and allowed at least two earned runs, two walks, and five or more hits in each game.
According to Baseball Savant, Bello’s season ranks in the 22nd MLB percentile or worse in value for pitching run (2nd), fastball run (10th), breaking run (6th), and offspeed run (22nd). He’s significantly worse than average in expected ERA (32nd percentile) and expected batting average (37th), K% (35th), BB% (34th), and hard-hit rate (32nd). It’s a sharp contrast to his ground-ball rate, elite in the 9nd percentile.
“He had a good bullpen yesterday,” the Red Sox manager said. “They feel good about the stuff, we just have to throw strikes.”
The Red Sox had a day off Thursday, and are off Monday in Miami as well.
“I think it was more about just unplugging for a little bit, a few days,” Cora said. “Work on a few things, and hopefully on Wednesday he feels better.”
Bello working on “a few things” doesn’t include mechanical tweaks though, the manager clarified.
“Stuff-wise, he’s a lot better than last year,” Cora assessed. “Velocity’s good. I mean, he said it the other day, ‘I wish I’m throwing 92 and throwing strikes,’ instead of 97-98 mph and not being able to locate.”
What the Sox skipper described is not unlike the problem that plagued Sandy Koufax early in his career. As a young flamethrower, the Dodgers legend struggled with command until his catcher, Norm Sherry, suggested shaving a few miles off. Thus, a Hall of Fame career – albeit one cut tragically short by elbow ailments – was set in motion. Bello is in the 80th MLB percentile in fastball velocity; perhaps other aspects of his game would benefit if he took things down a notch.
With Bello, however, the chaotic heat may be somewhat inadvertent.
“It’s not that he’s trying to throw harder, just physically he’s a lot stronger and this is where he’s at. His arm is a lot quicker,” Cora explained. “Probably he feels it, but that’s something more for him than for me.”
Asked if perhaps Bello is putting additional pressure on himself following the pre-arbitration extension he signed in March, his manager said that was also a better question for the pitcher.
“That’s something you got to ask him,” Cora said. “I do believe he’s acting the same way, you know, he’s just getting hit.”