Schoen: What Biden & Trump must do to ‘win’ 1st debate

After months of back and forth between the Biden and Trump camps, the two sides finally agreed on terms for a presidential debate, due to take place this summer, hosted by CNN. 

That voters would see these two in a televised debate was not a foregone conclusion. Trump had refused to debate during the GOP primaries, and for Biden, a lackluster performance could be fatal for his reelection chances, given the concerns over his age and fitness.

Although the incumbent generally has more to lose from a bad performance, in this case both sides must prove something to their base and to swing voters, while also soothing the concerns of the majority of Americans deeply upset with a rematch of the 2020 election.

Now that the two sides have agreed, it is crucial to understand what each candidate must accomplish if they want to “win” the debate and get a leg-up heading into an important summer ahead of the election. 

To that end, the first and most important thing for Biden is to prove that he is ambulatory and has the physical and mental stamina for a second term. It is impossible to understate how crucial it is for Biden to demonstrate that voters can trust him with four more years.

Just 4-in-10 (41%) registered voters – including 31% of Independents – believe Biden has the mental soundness to serve effectively as president, according to a recent Fox News poll

Moreover, with Vice President Kamala Harris’ approval rating at just 40%, if Biden cannot silence doubts over his age, voters will hardly feel comfortable giving him a second term with Harris in position to take over. 

On the issues, Biden will have to forcefully – and convincingly – defend his administration’s record, particularly on the economy and inflation. 

Too often, the president trumpets the strength of the macroeconomy, especially historically low unemployment, while appearing to gloss over the fact that Americans do not actually feel that the economy is good, despite impressive job growth and a stock market at record highs.

It is thus imperative that Biden shows that he understands the impact inflation is having on the finances of Americans, and conveys a plan to stop surging prices that goes beyond slamming corporations.

Further, the president also must show that he has concrete ways to address other hot button issues such as the Southern border, crime, as well as a strategy to end the wars in Israel and Ukraine in ways that are not perceived as weak or abandoning our allies.

In short, if Biden wants to “win” the debate, it is absolutely crucial that he outlines a genuine vision for a second term that improves the economy, secures the border, and projects American strength – not weakness – abroad. 

For his part, Trump has his own set of challenges that he must overcome if he wants to build on his slim lead in the polls and win over many voters who may not be enthusiastic about Biden, but are not yet convinced that Trump has the temperament for a second term. 

Most important for the former president is that he remains rational, and show that he offers more than just insults, but a specific, new direction for the country. 

Voters want to see that Trump can be responsible and trusted to lead in these times of immense economic and geopolitical challenges. They do not want to see that he is the same candidate who famously “prowled” behind Hillary Clinton in 2016, or who refused to denounce the white supremacist Proud Boys, instead telling them to “stand back and stand by.”

With that in mind, to “win” the debate, Trump must provide a genuine outline of his policies to address the very real challenges facing the nation while appearing presidential, eschewing the negative and authoritarian rhetoric he too often uses during the campaign.

Put another way, if all Trump does is insult Biden and Democrats, criticize the state of the country, and plays martyr, he will have done very little to sway voters concerned that his second term would be less chaotic than his first.

Ultimately, how both candidates carry themselves is as important in this debate as the policies they outline. With two well-known candidates, this first debate will give voters a taste of what a second term for either Biden or Trump will look like, and critically, whether they can be trusted with the presidency again. 

The good news for both candidates is that their vulnerabilities are also well-known, making it that much easier to prepare. Biden has known that voters are concerned about his age and fitness for a while now, and whether he cares or not, Trump knows voters are concerned about his temperament. 

Whichever candidate does a better job of addressing the concerns voters have and outlines a compelling vision for the country will seize the momentum heading into summer. Conversely, the candidate who is unable to soothe voters’ concerns will be at a considerable disadvantage until the second debate in September, and by that point, many voters will have already made up their minds.

Douglas Schoen is a longtime Democratic political consultant.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.

Previous post Editorial: Biden Administration’s take on the Bill of Rights
Next post DFLers say they’ve reached a deal on minimum wage for Uber, Lyft drivers