Over the past few years, the AL East has been an unforgiving gauntlet, and those who weren’t on top of their game risked being left in the dust. That’s been the story for the Red Sox, who have been a middle-of-the-road club consigned to the basement in back-to-back seasons thanks in large part to the strength of their division rivals.

But that may no longer be the case this year.

Consistently among the top teams in the American League since the start of the decade, the Tampa Bay Rays and Toronto Blue Jays have slipped from their perch and struggled through the season’s first month and a half. Now the two former World Series contenders face a difficult road to get back into playoff contention, potentially making Boston’s path forward much easier in the process.

Entering the weekend, the Rays stood fourth in the AL East at 19-20 and the Blue Jays fifth at 17-21. The Red Sox have yet to play either club, but starting Monday they’ll face Tampa Bay seven times in 10 games and later Toronto six times in nine games between June 17-26. They’ll ultimately play the two AL East rivals a combined 26 times.

In recent years those matchups have been lopsided, so Tampa Bay and Toronto taking a step back would be a potentially massive development for Boston. But why is this happening? And is each team just off to a slow start or could this just be the beginning of a protracted slide?

Rays riddled by injuries

No team has consistently gotten more out of less than Tampa Bay. Despite its financial limitations, the Rays always seem to find a way to compete, but even an organization with as much depth and savvy as Tampa Bay can only take so many hits before the ship starts taking on water.

The trouble dates back to last season when three of the club’s top starting pitchers underwent elbow surgery. Jeffrey Springs isn’t expected back until around the All-Star Break, Drew Rasmussen until the second half and ace Shane McClanahan likely not until 2025.

Beyond that, the Rays also lost their top three left-handed hitters — Brandon Lowe, Josh Lowe and Jonathan Aranda — to injury in the spring, along with young starting pitchers Taj Bradley and Ryan Pepiot, plus top relievers Pete Fairbanks and Colin Poche.

Given all of that, it’s no wonder the Rays have stumbled out of the gate.

“I think the Rays’ biggest issue so far is they haven’t had the team on the field that they expected in spring training,” said Marc Topkin, who covers the Rays for the Tampa Bay Times. “I agree that they’ve had a disappointing start, (manager) Kevin Cash says as much repeatedly, but they’ve kind of straightened themselves out.”

After falling to 14-18 on May 1, the Rays have since settled down and won five of their last seven games entering Saturday. They’re finally getting some help off the IL, with Josh Lowe and Bradley returning in the past week and Brandon Lowe and Fairbanks on rehab assignments. The hope is guys like Aranda and Poche won’t be far behind, and that Pepiot’s stay on the IL after getting hit in the leg by a line drive won’t be a long one.

But injuries aren’t the only explanation for Tampa Bay’s slow start. Several of the club’s biggest bats, including Randy Arozarena, Yandy Diaz and Harold Ramirez, haven’t performed to expectations. As of this writing Arozarena was batting .143 with a .533 OPS and Diaz .237 with a .595 OPS, but Topkin said the Rays don’t believe there’s anything more going on than just a slow start and with time the bats will get going.

“I think they’re going track record with (Arozarena) that he’s going to get it figured out,” Topkin said. “And Yandy Diaz won the batting title last year and his walks have been down so he’s been striking out a bit more, so I think they figure that’s going to settle down as well.”

Tampa Bay Rays player Jose Caballero, right, celebrates with Richie Palacios after scoring on an RBI single by Yandy Diaz off Detroit Tigers starting pitcher Jack Flaherty during the second inning of a game Wednesday, April 24, 2024, in St. Petersburg, Fla. (AP Photo/Chris O’Meara)

One uncomfortable element of Tampa Bay’s current position is the status of Wander Franco, the ultra-talented 23-year-old shortstop who has been accused of engaging in an inappropriate relationship with a minor. Franco, who hasn’t played since last August, is under investigation and according to recent reports will be formally charged with commercial sexual exploitation of a minor in his native Dominican Republic. Depending on how the legal process plays out Franco may never play in MLB again.

Obviously the ramifications of Franco’s situation go far beyond the diamond, but strictly from a baseball perspective his absence has left a void that can’t be easily filled. That being said, Topkin said the organization isn’t dwelling on Franco and appears to have moved on.

“There’s not a lot of talk about Wander,” Topkin said. “Yes, he was a very good player for the Rays last year, but they don’t act like they’re waiting for him to come back or expect him to come back and make an impact.”

Jays underperforming

Unlike Tampa Bay, whose problems are obvious, Toronto’s woes are much harder to explain.

The Blue Jays boast an impressive collection of talent on both sides of the ball, including a young core of All-Stars led by Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Toronto has suffered a few injury setbacks like everyone, but by and large the club is close to full strength and on paper should be right up there with the Baltimore Orioles and New York Yankees atop the AL East.

But for whatever reason the Blue Jays haven’t been able to get out of their own way.

After a disappointing offensive season in 2023, Toronto’s woes have lingered and what should be a formidable lineup has proven shockingly punchless. Bichette, Guerrero and four-time All-Star George Springer have all gotten off to poor starts, and as of this writing the Blue Jays have averaged 3.58 runs scored per game, which ranks fourth-worst in MLB.

The poor showing is especially striking given the attention Toronto has paid to bringing the best out of its hitters.

“The team spent the entire offseason saying we’ve worked on our internal processes with the offense,” said Kaitlyn McGrath, who covers the Blue Jays for The Athletic and recently wrote a piece breaking down the club’s slow start. “They took Don Mattingly, who had been the bench coach and moved him into what they’re calling the offensive coordinator role, and they brought in another hitting coach, so there’s been this focus on overhauling the offensive process, how they do things internally, to spur on the hitters and hope they can hit more to their career potential. And it’s just not started out that way.”

The Blue Jays also didn’t do much to bolster their roster, though it can’t be said they didn’t try. For a brief moment this winter it appeared they had landed two-time MVP Shohei Ohtani, only for the reports he was Toronto-bound to prove premature. He ultimately signed with the Dodgers, and after the ill-fated pursuit, the Blue Jays changed gears and decided to double down on their existing club. They allowed third baseman Matt Chapman to leave in free agency, signed complimentary pieces like veteran designated hitter Justin Turner and infielder Isiah Kiner-Falefa, and otherwise bet on their returning talent to run it back.

That extended to the club’s starting rotation, which included four starters who made 31 starts, avoided injury and consistently delivered each time they took the mound in 2023. Jose Berrios and Yusei Kikuchi have continued to perform, but Kevin Gausman and Chris Bassitt have each stumbled early and the fifth spot has proven to be a revolving door.

On top of that the bullpen has been a disaster, collectively posting a league-worst 5.26 ERA, and it’s often seemed like whenever the Blue Jays come through in one area, something will go wrong in another.

“When you add it all up, you’re not scoring runs, and the odd time they do score runs then the bullpen gives up the lead,” McGrath said. “It’s an element where all aspects of the team are kind of underperforming and also you add in things aren’t clicking at the same time.”

Should Rays, Jays worry?

So far the Red Sox have been able to capitalize on Tampa Bay and Toronto’s struggles, largely staying above .500 and in third place despite a litany of injuries and some inconsistent play. Boston will have to take care of its own business if it hopes to remain a potential playoff contender, but can the Red Sox count on the Rays and Blue Jays to stay on the mat?

Toronto Blue Jays first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr., left, is too late with a high catch to make a play on Washington Nationals runner Jacob Young at first base during the first inning of a game Sunday, May 5, 2024, in Washington. (AP Photo/John McDonnell)

That’s difficult to say.

Both Tampa Bay and Toronto are capable of playing much better than they have through the first six weeks, and there’s good reason to believe both can turn things around. The Rays are already starting to get healthier, and if fixtures like Arozarena and Diaz can start producing, then it’s not hard to imagine Tampa Bay making a run.

“I think it would be foolish to make any judgments after five or six weeks of the season,” Topkin said. “I definitely wouldn’t rule the Rays out at this point, if they get healthier you’re going to see them get on a bit of a roll.”

For Toronto, Gausman already seems to be settling into a rhythm after a rocky start and Bassitt’s track record suggests his numbers will even out in the end. As for Bichette, he’s been one of the most reliable contact hitters in baseball for years, so like Arozarena and Diaz the expectation is it’s only a matter of time before he gets going.

“He’s been so consistent over the bulk of his career in terms of being someone who can hit,” McGrath said. “We don’t think this is going to continue for him, you kind of bet on a guy like Bo to be able to figure it out.”

But can the same be said about Toronto’s other big hitters, particularly Guerrero? McGrath said that’s the million dollar question, because since finishing runner-up in the 2021 MVP vote the slugger hasn’t been able to come close to those same heights.

“It’s something that has followed him since then,” McGrath said. “People are trying to figure out ‘is this guy a superstar or is he just a very good player?’ ”

Given that Toronto’s farm system isn’t particularly deep, the clock is ticking for the Blue Jays to make the most of its window. McGrath said the organization’s current timeline roughly coincides with Bichette and Guerrero’s impending free agency following next season, so depending on how things play out, Toronto may have a difficult decision to make in July as far as whether the team will buy or sell at the trade deadline.

There’s no question the Blue Jays are committed to winning — the franchise has made historic investments over the past few years — but after getting swept out of the Wild Card round each of the last two years, there are real questions about how sustainable the current course actually is.

“They haven’t delivered that winner yet, so you start asking questions about the organization too, is there going to be change coming at the top?” McGrath said. “Those are all big questions the organization is going to be wrestling with, and the way the season has started this year, some of those questions are starting to bubble up now.”

One thing is for sure, Tampa Bay and Toronto are more vulnerable now than they’ve been in years. The clubs have consistently had the Red Sox number and Boston’s 19-45 head-to-head record against them since 2022 is likely the single biggest factor behind their back-to-back last-place finishes.

If this year is really going to be different, then Boston has to flip the script and knock their rivals down a peg every chance they get. Otherwise it’s going to be the same old story, with an ending that’s become all too familiar around here.