Beacon Hill budget writers warn of fiscal ‘winter’ already upon Massachusetts
Massachusetts’ fiscal winter isn’t on the horizon anymore. It’s already here.
That’s the message top Beacon Hill budget writers painted Wednesday as they offered a grim outlook for the state’s economic standing for the rest of fiscal year 2024 and outlined a slate of challenges Massachusetts could face as lawmakers craft the fiscal year 2025 budget.
Senate Ways and Means Chair Michael Rodrigues said it is essential for lawmakers in both the House and Senate to “remain clear-eyed” of declining tax revenues over the past seven months as they look ahead to the second half of the year and review Gov. Maura Healey’s $58 billion fiscal 2025 budget.
Considerable headwinds remain this fiscal year, the Westport Democrat told Healey and Administration and Finance Secretary Matthew Gorzkowicz, who were testifying before the Legislature’s two budget writing committees.
“As we saw just last week with January revenue collections for FY24 that are tracking well below benchmark to date, it places further stress and increasing downward pressures on the current FY24 budget. If this worrying trend continues over the second half of this fiscal year, it will require additional adjustments and solutions to bring our current budget into balance,” he said.
January marked the seventh straight month that revenue collections in Massachusetts came in below expectations, and the first month that returns even tracked under revised estimated Healey put in place earlier this year.
The Department of Revenue reported Monday that the state collected $3.5 billion in January, nearly 7% or $263 million lower than the new benchmarks Healey issued. The new expectations came after Healey cut $375 million from the fiscal year 2024 budget and reduced year-end revenue estimated by $1 billion.
Gorzkowicz told the Herald Tuesday that the administration is not currently planning more unilateral budget cuts but did not rule out the move. And on Wednesday, Healey acknowledged the revenue trends in Massachusetts have “changed.”
“Several years of pandemic related federal funding have gone away. We need to manage our spending and make smart strategic choices. That’s what our budget recommendation for this year does,” Healey said while defending her fiscal year 2025 proposal.
But House budget writer Rep. Aaron Michlewitz made clear that there are challenges in fiscal year 2024 that could have an impact on planning for the next fiscal year.
“We are hundreds of millions of dollars behind our benchmarks despite an already $1 billion downgrade earlier this year. Winter isn’t just coming, folks, it’s already here. But we will manage our way through this difficult period the same way we manage the prosperous revenue of the previous three years,” the North End Democrat said.