Global shipping remains a vital link in international trade. Image: Wilfredor, Wikimedia Commons, CC0 1.0 (public domain dedication). Image source and licence.

Global trade is proving more resilient than many businesses expected, but its recovery is increasingly shaped by two powerful forces: investment in artificial intelligence (AI) and geopolitical disruption. New trade data show that demand for semiconductors, servers and other technology equipment is helping to offset pressure on shipping, energy and travel. The result is a world economy in which some industries and regions are expanding quickly while others face higher costs and weaker demand.

AI investment is becoming a major engine of goods trade

The World Trade Organization (WTO) raised its forecast for global merchandise trade volume growth in 2026 to 3.9%, from 1.9% in its March forecast. It expects growth of 4.1% in 2027. The WTO said the stronger outlook reflects both supply-chain adaptation and strong investment in AI-related infrastructure.

AI-enabling goods, including semiconductors and servers, accounted for 47% of the growth in global merchandise trade by value in the first half of 2026. Trade in these products increased by 67% year on year. This illustrates how investment in data centres and computing capacity is influencing activity far beyond the technology sector: it supports demand for electronics, advanced components, industrial equipment and international logistics.

Supply chains are adapting, but disruption has not disappeared

Businesses have continued to adjust routes and suppliers in response to disruption affecting energy, fertiliser and transport markets. The WTO reported that global container throughput remained resilient, rising 3.9% year to date through July. Alternative suppliers and shipping corridors helped limit the impact of reduced energy exports from the Middle East.

Adaptation, however, does not mean that disruption is cost-free. Longer routes, higher fuel prices and uncertainty can increase freight and insurance costs, delay deliveries and tie up working capital. Smaller importers and exporters often have less bargaining power and fewer alternative suppliers than large multinational companies.

Services trade faces a different set of pressures

The outlook for services is less favourable than for goods. The WTO expects commercial services trade volume to grow by 3.3% in 2026, down from its earlier 4.8% forecast, before accelerating to 6.4% in 2027. Transport and international travel are particularly exposed to higher energy costs and disruptions to routes.

Digital services have been more resilient. The WTO reported that computer services exports rose by 18% year on year in the first quarter of 2026 and an estimated 12% in the second quarter. Financial services exports also increased. These figures underline an important shift: international trade is no longer defined only by ships carrying physical goods. Software, cloud services, financial products and other digitally delivered services are increasingly important parts of cross-border commerce.

The recovery is uneven across regions

The WTO’s October projections point to significant differences between regions. Asia is expected to record the fastest merchandise export growth in 2026, at 9.9%. North America is projected at 5.7%, Africa at 5.6% and South America at 3.4%. Europe’s merchandise exports are projected to edge down by 0.1%, while the Middle East faces a much sharper contraction in the WTO forecast.

These projections should not be read as a simple ranking of economic performance. Export growth depends on the mix of products a region sells, its exposure to energy and transport shocks, exchange rates, investment cycles and the performance of its trading partners. A region can also experience strong growth in one industry while other sectors struggle.

What businesses should watch next

For companies involved in international trade, the current environment makes flexibility especially valuable. Businesses can review supplier concentration, identify alternative shipping routes, monitor freight and energy costs, and test how sensitive their margins are to delays or sudden price changes. Technology firms and manufacturers should also consider whether their supply chains can keep pace with demand for AI-related equipment.

Governments face a related challenge. Open and predictable trade rules can help companies find alternative suppliers and keep essential goods moving. At the same time, investment in ports, digital infrastructure, skills and energy resilience can help economies capture more of the opportunities created by technological change.

Conclusion: resilience will depend on adaptation

The latest trade figures show that global commerce can adjust to serious shocks, but the benefits are not shared equally. AI investment is providing a strong boost to technology-related goods and digital services, while transport, travel and energy-sensitive industries remain vulnerable. For businesses and policymakers, the central task is to build supply chains and institutions that can adapt without sacrificing efficiency, competition or access to international markets.

Sources and further reading

World Trade Organization: AI boom and trade resilience to Middle East crisis lift outlook, but gains to be uneven (8 October 2026)
International Monetary Fund: World Economic Outlook, October 2026 – Resilience Under Strain, Urgent Choices
Wikimedia Commons: Cargo ship.jpg – image details and CC0 licence

Looking Times publishes independent explanatory coverage of the global economy, international trade, business and technology. Forecasts are estimates from the institutions cited and may change as new information becomes available.