Up to 90,000 banking, legal and accountancy jobs based in London are forecast to move to other parts of the country over the next five years, bringing an estimated £9 billion boost to regional economies including Manchester, Birmingham and Leeds, according to analysis by Robert Walters, the listed recruitment company.

The recruiter estimates that figure could rise to £15 billion once the spending of relocated workers in their new home towns, and the extra work generated for local supply chains, is taken into account.

Robert Walters said more companies were looking to move some of their teams out of London because of the cost of running a business in the capital, where a shortage of prime office space has pushed rents to record highs.

The 90,000 roles represent 2.5 per cent of London’s overall workforce. Robert Walters predicts that up to 12,000 jobs will have moved out of the capital by the end of 2027, rising to 45,000 by 2029. Senior leadership teams are expected to remain in London, with companies instead bolstering junior ranks with local talent.

“Our forecast indicates a rebalancing of the scales towards stronger regional jobs growth over a widespread shift of business activity away from London,” said Jonny Bohane, of Robert Walters’ market intelligence team.

The analysis used past job relocations by major UK employers to establish a baseline, then combined Robert Walters’ own placement volumes with LinkedIn movement data to project regional hiring demand. The model also factored in office capacity, hybrid working levels, the depth of local talent pools, regional development initiatives and government decentralisation programmes.

The northwest of England, including Manchester and Liverpool, is forecast to be the biggest beneficiary, with 22,500 jobs expected to move there by 2031. Bohane’s team estimates this could inject up to £2.25 billion into the region’s economy, “reinforcing its status as the UK’s second hub for growth and innovation”.

About a fifth of the relocated positions, up to 18,000, could end up in the Midlands, principally Birmingham, bringing a £1.8 billion economic boost, the report said. Yorkshire stands to attract about 13,500 roles, adding £1.35 billion to the local economy. Most of the remaining 36,000 or so jobs are expected to move to other major regional cities including Bristol, Edinburgh, Glasgow, Cambridge, Newcastle, Liverpool, Reading and Cardiff.

Daniel Harris, UK managing director at Robert Walters, said he expects the trend to accelerate as “cost considerations remain high, and hybrid working allows organisations to build more geographically diverse teams”.

“Manchester, Leeds and Birmingham are the engine rooms of activity,” Harris said. “Over the last decade, these regional centres have become key career destinations for UK white-collar workers. They offer a significant presence of high-profile, multinational employers, vibrant cultural scenes and leisure opportunities, as well as a lower cost of living compared to the capital.”

Several large employers have already made similar moves. Birmingham is home to Deloitte’s second-largest UK office, Siemens moved its UK headquarters from Surrey to Manchester in 2019, and the Bank of England has committed to basing one in ten of its staff in Leeds by 2027, although only 156 employees had registered interest in transferring to its Leeds hub by late last year.

The forecasts align with the devolution agenda of Andy Burnham, the prime minister, who has promised to deliver “good growth in every postcode” and wants to reduce the country’s reliance on London, which accounts for about a quarter of the UK’s economic output. Last month he opened a northern branch of Downing Street, No 10 North, as part of his plans for wider political devolution and regional economic growth.

“The appeal of these regional cities shouldn’t be underestimated. But growth isn’t determined by businesses relocating or creating new jobs alone,” Bohane said. “When professionals move into an area, the benefits ripple through the local economy. Increased demand supports everything from transport and housing to cafés, co-working spaces and the wider network of local businesses that keep these cities running.”