One last step before the Super Bowl.

The Patriots will kick off an AFC Championship Game in Denver today for the third time in 12 years, hoping this time they finally tame the Broncos at Mile High.

Drake Maye and Co. are 5.5-point road favorites, following convincing wins over the Chargers and Texans to open the playoffs, and an ill-timed, season-ending ankle injury for Denver starting quarterback Bo Nix last weekend. In his place, the Broncos will start former Patriots draft pick Jarrett Stidham, who hasn’t attempted a pass in an NFL game since the end of the 2023 season.

While Stidham is an unknown, Denver’s defense is guaranteed to send pressure at Maye, having posted the fifth-highest blitz rate in the league during the regular season. How can Maye combat the Broncos’ blitz? And will the Patriots continue to dial up their own biitz pressure as their defense enjoys a late renaissance?

Here’s what to watch for in the AFC title game:

When Patriots run

Rhamondre Stevenson is at the top of his game.

Stevenson shed six tackles last week versus an elite Houston defense, ripping off a 20-yard run early before helping to salt the game away late with several carries of five-plus yards in the fourth quarter. Stevenson leads the Patriots in rushing this postseason, while averaging 4.6 yards per carry. Expect offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels to run Stevenson inside, where the Broncos are a little softer than other areas against the run, especially versus groupings with six offensive linemen; a staple of the Pats’ recent game plans.

Overall, though, Denver’s is a top-5 run defense with talent across the board. If Stevenson can’t crack the Broncos front, it will be up to rookie TreVeyon Henderson, whose speed remains as tantalizing as his impatience is frustrating. Henderson can create explosive runs when he finds space, though that will be tough to come by after Denver allowed just six runs of 20-plus yards during the regular season.

When Patriots pass

Unlike the Texans and Chargers, who posted two of the lowest blitz rates in the league, Denver will send the house at Maye.

The good news for the Patriots is Maye was among the NFL’s best quarterbacks versus the blitz this season, and his receivers are coming off an impressive showing to beat tight man-to-man coverage. Maye went 7-of-10 for 100 yards and three touchdowns versus Houston’s man coverage, a key battleground the Pats will revisit in Denver. The Broncos played the third-highest rate of man-to-man this season at 37.7%, per SumerSports; a reflection of their confidence in their cornerbacks, including Patrick Surtain II, the reigning Defensive Player of the Year.

Up front, the Patriots must find a way to block edge rusher Nik Bonitto, who led the Broncos with 14 sacks during the regular season and had another last weekend versus Buffalo. Denver led the league in sacks with 71 thanks to more players than Bonitto, but he is best positioned to exploit the ongoing struggles of rookie left tackle Will Campbell. In the playoffs, Campbell has allowed eight pressures, including three sacks.

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) fumbles the ball while being tackled by Denver Broncos linebacker Nik Bonitto (15) during the second half of an NFL divisional-round playoff game, Saturday, Jan. 17, 2026, in Denver. (AP Photo/Jack Dempsey)

One other name to watch: defensive lineman Zach Allen. He had just seven sacks during the regular season, but led the league with 47 QB hits and made the All-Pro team as a menace versus the run and pass. Allen hit Bills quarterback Josh Allen last weekend, and could strip-sack Maye (six fumbles this postseason) if given the chance.

If Maye has time and protects the ball, expect him to take more deep sideline shots to Kayshon Boutte and Kyle Williams around middle targets to tight ends Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper. Denver’s otherwise elite pass defense ranks 18th against tight ends by DVOA.

When Broncos run

After Maye’s ball security, this matchup could swing the game more than any other.

If Denver can’t run the ball, it’s virtually impossible to see Stidham carry the Broncos to victory against a defense with Milton Williams, Christian Barmore and Christian Gonzalez expecting pass. By shutting down Houston’s run game, Patriots defensive play-caller Zak Kuhr was able to send all kinds of man-blitzes, zone blitzes and other pressure calls to confuse C.J. Stroud. That run defense started what proved to be a dominant performance.

Meanwhile, the Broncos field an average run-blocking offensive line, per most metrics, while rookie RJ Harvey has taken most of the carries after starter J.K. Dobbins suffered a serious foot injury in early November. Harvey was held to just 20 yards on six carries during the divisional round, after finishing with 540 rushing yards and seven touchdowns during the regular season. Fellow backup Jaleel McLaughin (5.1 yards per carry) is another option out of the backfield, a runner who can be harder to tackle than expected at just 5-foot-7.

Keep an eye on linebackers Robert Spillane and Christian Elliss. Both veterans are coming off outstanding performances against the Texans. If they plug their gaps and finish tackles, it should be a long day for Denver on the ground.

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When Broncos pass

What will Stidham do? It’s almost impossible to say until kickoff.

Stidham delivered his last pass attempts during the last start he made two years ago in a trying 2023 season for Denver. He completed 60.6% of his passes for 496 yards, two touchdowns and an interception, plus seven sacks. Stidham now has three years in Sean Payton’s offensive system, which, combined with his plus arm strength, should open up the entire playbook for him.

But aside from expecting Stidham to take some shots downfield, the Patriots are likely to focus on the pass-catchers around him, starting with Courtland Sutton. As the Broncos’ leading receiver, he caught 74 passes for 1,017 yards and seven touchdowns. Sutton could draw a part-time shadow assignment from Christian Gonzalez, who occasionally shadowed No. 1 receivers this year.

After Sutton, Denver has wide receiver Troy Franklin, tight end Even Enrgam, Harvey and wideout Marvin Mims rounding out its top targets. Of that group, only Franklin and Harvey scored multiple touchdowns. If Kuhr is confident in his matchups, he could return to the same blitzing well to harass Stidham and hope for a mistake.

And if the Patriots don’t, they better have Franklin and Mims covered downfield. Mims scored a game-tying, 26-yard touchdown last weekend versus Buffalo. He and Franklin split a lot of Denver’s snaps from the slot, while Sutton works outside.

Game pick

Patriots 26, Broncos 20