Patriots mailbag: Can Pats help rookie offensive starter?
The Patriots have made the AFC Championship Game for the first time in seven years, and they’re facing a familiar foe.
They’re heading back to Denver to play their third conference championship against the Broncos. The Patriots lost in Denver in 2013 and 2015.
They’ll try to change their fortunes this Sunday against Broncos backup Jarrett Stidham, who is filling for starter Bo Nix, who is out with a broken ankle.
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Let’s answer your Patriots questions in this week’s mailbag.
@AR58440224: What are the convos being had internally re: Campbell and Wilson? Between Bonitto, Cooper and their DL, Denver’s pass rush could ruin the game and our season. Frankly Brown has often outplayed Wilson and a healthy Lowe has been MUCH better this year. Will has been bad both games.
I would be shocked if there are any serious conversations being held internally to make a move with either player before Sunday’s AFC Championship Game against the Broncos. Mike Vrabel and the Patriots’ coaching staff have trusted Will Campbell and Jared Wilson all season, they’ve helped the Patriots get to this point, and benching them for Vederian Lowe and Ben Brown is no guarantee to help the situation.
The reality is Campbell, and Wilson to a lesser extent, need to be better. Campbell got beaten far too quickly on both of the strip sacks he allowed to Will Anderson. On one, he had help from TreVeyon Henderson, and it wasn’t beneficial. On the second strip sack, Campbell was beaten cleanly by Anderson in less than 2.5 seconds.
The Patriots face another really tough test this week with edge rusher Nik Bonitto and defensive tackle Zach Allen. Bonitto does most of his work from the right edge, meaning he’ll be going face-to-face with Campbell. Allen is a threat from the interior. The Broncos’ pass rush ranks third in ESPN’s pass-rush win rate and second in pressure rate this season.
If anything, Maye will need to be even more cognizant of his blind side, and Josh McDaniels will need to design plays to get the ball out even faster.
But, no, I would be shocked if the Patriots made a move to reshuffle the offensive line at this point.
@jordsmith897561: I am as I am sure we all are worried with the left side of the line. Why are we not seeing more help given to that side, more consistently? I know we jumbo sometimes, but just seems like we need to cover that side if we want to continue winning. The fumbles will catch up soon
When Campbell gets help, it doesn’t actually help, oddly enough.
Here’s a quote from him after Sunday’s win over the Texans: “Some of my plays from this year that, I wish I could have back, have came whenever I had help, which is weird as (expletive), quite frankly. I need to play better. I hold myself to a higher standard than what I put out tonight.”
They could try, but it seems to disrupt his timing more than anything else.
@BC101089: Any update on Hollins?
On Monday, Kayshon Boutte was certainly talking like Mack Hollins was going to be activated off injured reserve.
Vrabel was non-committal, however. We’ll see if he’s at practice Wednesday afternoon.
@Td196: If Stidham has an average game with no turnovers, do you think Denver has a chance to win? Or does he have to play at a Bo Nix level?
The short answer is yes. And I also believe the Patriots can’t count on Broncos QB Jarrett Stidham playing as poorly as Justin Herbert did in the wild-card round or as bad as C.J. Stroud played on Sunday, as odd as that sounds.
The Chargers and Texans knew they’d have to rely on Herbert and Stroud, so they lived and died with them. The Broncos aren’t going to be taking that approach with their backup quarterback.
But I also think it’s wrong to downplay or discount the Patriots’ defense. The unit has been forcing mistakes out of quarterbacks and are playing their best football of the season during the playoffs.
So, I still think the Patriots will win, and I think Stidham will struggle. But the Patriots can’t count on a four-turnover performance.
@grill_matthew: Stevenson gains yards and Henderson has been getting stuffed at the line of scrimmage. Is Stevenson going to get the ball more and Henderson less in Denver?
Most likely, yes. I think Rhamondre Stevenson would have received more carries if he wasn’t dealing with an eye issue on Sunday.
The Patriots really missed him when they had to count on Henderson in the early-down role.
@frizzaud: Who has been the most surprising free agent relative to expectations? Is it Bradbury? Moses? Tonga?
That’s a great question, because center Garrett Bradbury, right tackle Morgan Moses, defensive tackle Khyiris Tonga, wide receiver Stefon Diggs and linebacker Jack Gibbens are all worthy candidates.
I’m giving it to outside linebacker K’Lavon Chaisson, however. He wasn’t even expected to start, and he was one of the Patriots’ most impactful plays in Sunday’s win over the Texans with a sack and pressures on three of Stroud’s interceptions.
@ted_mcgregor: As the seasons gone on, the holes on the roster have gotten smaller and smaller. What to you is the most obvious roster related hole that still stands out? For me, it’s blocking TEs and proper FB, but I’m sure there are others.
I think the big one is still pass rush/edge defense help. Chaisson has been productive as a pass rusher, but it’s clear that Harold Landry isn’t feeling 100% physically, so the Patriots have had to rely on backups Anfernee Jennings, Elijah Ponder and Jahlani Tavai more and more.
@JuicePickm: How do you feel about the Broncos defense in comparison to the Chargers and Texans?
Here’s a quick breakdown, based on expected points added (EPA):
EPA per play: Texans first, Broncos eighth, Chargers ninth
EPA per pass: Texans first, Broncos ninth, Chargers 11th
EPA per rush: Texans fourth, Chargers fifth, Broncos ninth
So, they’re right up there, and probably realistically somewhere between the Texans and Chargers. They’re slightly more susceptible against the run than the Texans and Chargers.
@greenleaf_chris: Can anyone beat the NFC teams?
Absolutely. The Seahawks and Rams are good teams, but Sam Darnold is the Seahawks’ quarterback, and the Rams’ defense is flawed.
No team is unbeatable this season, which is why it’s such a great year for the Patriots to be having this run.
@jpftw: My wife is a Broncos fan. Do you have a guest bed I can crash on after all the trash talk this week?
No, but you can crash on our couch if you need to.
