Fifteen months ago, Drake Maye made his NFL starting debut in a 20-point loss to the Texans.

Oh, how far he’s come.

For the first time since last season, Maye and the Patriots will battle Houston for the right to play in the AFC Championship Game. The Pats opened the week as slight home favorites and received more good news during the week. Star cornerback Christian Gonzalez was cleared to play after suffering a concussion last weekend, while Houston will be without its No. 1 receiver, Nico Collins, due to the concussion he sustained in a Wild Card win at Pittsburgh.

But Collins’ absence won’t help Maye when he goes head-to-head with the AFC’s best defense in the toughest test of his career.

How can Maye overcome the ferocious, fast-flowing Texans?

Here’s what to watch for in Foxboro:

When Patriots run

Maye led the Patriots with 66 rushing yards in their Wild Card win over the Chargers. If he does it again Sunday, that’s a good sign.

While the Texans allowed just two scrambles per game during the regular season, they allowed 9.2 yards per scramble, the highest allowed average in the league. Maye’s legs could be the Pats’ best foil versus tight man-to-man coverage, something they’re likely to see from the Texans. But offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels might also leverage Maye’s athleticism in the red zone, where the Patriots have struggled lately, and will need to convert when opportunities arise.

New England Patriots’ Drake Maye scrambles during the second quarter of the win over the Chargers at Gillette Stadium. (Nancy Lane/Boston Herald)

If Maye is used on option runs, he could still hand the ball off to Rhamondre Stevenson, who’s breaking three tackles per game over the last three weeks. Stevenson (53 rushing yards versus Los Angeles) and Henderson have found wider rushing lanes lately, thanks to the Pats’ jumbo packages with six offensive linemen. However, those could be in short supply versus a Texans defense allowing a league-low 1.7 yards per carry to offenses using that type of personnel, per Sports Info. Solutions.

If the Pats stick with their traditional run games, it should still be tough finding yards against Houston’s second-ranked run defense. The key then will be patience with the idea that from a few short runs, Henderson might eventually break free for a long touchdown. Expect the Patriots to call several “duo” runs with two double-teams in the interior, one of the few concepts Houston has struggled with this year.

“There might be some dirty four or five-yard runs,’ Patriots center Garrett Bradbury said. “But we’re gonna commit to it.”

When Patriots pass

If there’s one matchup that could swing this game, it’s the Patriots’ offensive tackles versus Pro Bowl edge rushers Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter.

No pass-rushing duo in the league is more fearsome than Anderson and Hunter, who made the All-Pro team and Pro Bowl, respectively. They also finished fourth and fifth among all defensive ends by Pro Football Focus’ pass-rushing grades. Expect the Pats to help rookie left tackle Will Campbell and veteran right tackle Morgan Moses with quick passes, bootleg play-action throws and chips from running backs out of the backfield.

Patriots offensive tackle Will Campbell warms up prior to the start of an NFL game against the Carolina Panthers on Sunday, Sept. 28 in Foxboro. (AP Photo/Greg M. Cooper)

Even then, the Texans could force Maye to hold onto the ball with tight coverage. They rank second at defending tight ends by the opponent-and-situation-adjusted metric DVOA and third versus running backs. That will put more on the shoulders of ex-Texans receiver Stefon Diggs, who had just two catches in the Wild Card round.

Look for Maye to seek Diggs when Houston plays man coverage, something the Pats have struggled with at times this year. And DeMario Douglas, while quiet for most of the past two months, could factor, too.

“It’s gonna be huge for us to run routes the right way and be available for the quarterback,” Diggs said of facing man-to-man. “(There’s) gonna be a lot of contested catches, and things like that.”

In the secondary, All-Pro cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. has been susceptible at times when playing man coverage, but his ball skills (four interceptions) remain a threat. Avoiding turnovers will be paramount for a Patriots offense that knows it will be walking a tight rope most of the afternoon.

“They’ve got eyes on creating turnovers,” Maye said. “Their guys in the back end are great at getting their hands on the football and catching it when there’s somebody throwing it.”

When Texans run

Welcome back, Khyiris Tonga.

The Patriots’ veteran run-stuffer is back after missing the team’s last three games with a foot injury. His return gives them a full complement of defensive linemen, including Milton Williams, who starred last week versus Los Angeles. By making the Chargers one-dimensional, the Pats were able to ramp up their pass rush versus Justin Herbert and sack him six times.

Related Articles

Inside Patriots’ nearly flawless offseason that helped spark rapid turnaround

Patriots make series of roster moves ahead of divisional-round matchup vs. Texans

How the Patriots defense found a late-season identity by embracing the blitz

10 things to watch in Patriots’ divisional-round playoff game vs. Texans

New Patriots: Get to know standout free-agent offensive addition

Like Los Angeles, the Texans are cast as a poor rushing team by advanced metrics, ranked dead last by ESPN’s run-block win rate and fourth-worst in rushing offense by DVOA. Rookie running back Woody Marks could nonetheless create problems, coming off a 112-yard game at Pittsburgh last weekend with one touchdown. The Patriots must continue to tackle well and contain Marks on outside runs, which Houston uses to set up bootleg play-action throws.

Because even as the Texans’ run game appears weak on paper, Patriots coach Mike Vrabel sees a unit gaining momentum.

“I think they’re gaining confidence, it looked like, in the run game and the physicality in which they played with the other night at (Pittsburgh),” Vrabel said. “And when you can do that, then it marries with – your play-action opens up and your spaces over the middle open up. Your boot game, it all marries together. So that, to me, looks like what they would want to do.”

When Texans pass

No Collins, no problems?

The Patriots should enjoy significant matchup advantages outside with Gonzalez and Carlton Davis facing a receiving corps now reliant on rookie Jayden Higgins (41 receptions, 525 yards), third-year man Xavier Hutchinson and eight-year veteran Christian Kirk. Higgins has six touchdowns as a potential big-play threat who often towers over opposing corners at 6-foot-4. But if there’s a cornerback duo that can handle bigger receivers, it’s Gonzalez and Davis.

Defending tight end Dalton Schultz is another matter, given he led the Texans in catches and receiving success rate (60.4%), meaning more often than not Houston gains enough yards to stay on schedule or move the chains whenever he’s targeted. Covering Schultz should fall on safeties Craig Woodson and Jaylin Hawkins, though the Patriots’ best pass defense doesn’t start with coverage as much as a steady pass rush.

Houston quarterback C.J. Stroud, while talented, accurate and mobile enough to extend plays, melts under pressure and risks a turnover on 5.1% of dropbacks while under duress, per PFF. Expect the Patriots to send more blitz pressure, as they did against Herbert, and try to isolate  Williams against young Texans center Jake Andrews. After the Patriots’ matchups with Anderson and Hunter on the edge, this trench battle will be the best bellwether for this divisional-round showdown.

Game pick

Patriots 20, Texans 19