Patriots mailbag: Trying to explain second-half offensive struggles
The Patriots finally had their winning streak snapped, now they’ll look to clinch a playoff spot this weekend.
All it takes is a Patriots win over or a tie with the Ravens, a Colts win or tie, or a Texans loss or tie.
Let’s get into your questions in this week’s mailbag.
@ReallJayr: What’s going on with Josh McDaniels in the 2nd half of games
There’s a pretty concerning trend in the second half of games dating back to the start of November for the Patriots’ offense.
In the first half of games since Week 9, quarterback Drake Maye is completing 73.2% of his passes for 927 yards with seven touchdowns and one interception, plus 17 rushing attempts for 82 yards with two touchdowns and five sacks. His EPA per play is +0.35, and his success rate is 57.1%.
In the second half of games since Week 9, Maye is completing just 57.0% of his passes for 614 yards with one touchdown and three interceptions, plus 17 rushing attempts for 30 yards with no touchdowns and 10 sacks. His EPA per play -0.07, and his success rate is 38.9%.
Overall, the Patriots’ EPA per play in the first half of those games is +0.27, and their success rate is 52.8%. In the second half of those games, their EPA per play is -0.06, and their success rate is 36.6%.
Those numbers include three 50-plus yard touchdown runs from rookie running back TreVeyon Henderson.
There are certainly some extenuating circumstances in play. The Patriots have been playing with the lead in all but one of those six games, so they’re playing more conservatively, but games have been pretty close against the Falcons, Buccaneers, Bengals and Bills. So, it’s also possible that defenses are just figuring them out.
The most concerning game was, obviously, against the Bills, but the Patriots have scored just four touchdowns in the second halves of games since Week 9, and three of those were those long touchdown runs from Henderson. They’ve only had one longer, extended touchdown drive in that span, and that came in the third quarter of their win against the Jets on a six-play, 69-yard drive.
@ofibroso: Milton Willians or Will Campbell who comes back first?
Williams is eligible to return first. He can come off injured reserve in Week 17 against the Jets. Campbell can return in Week 18 against the Dolphins.
Somewhat surprisingly, the Patriots actually miss Williams more than Campbell so far.
The Patriots’ run defense has been among the worst in the NFL since Williams suffered his ankle injury in Week 11, ranking 30th in EPA per rush and 31st in success rate.
Before Week 11, they were fourth in EPA per rush and eighth in success rate. It certainly didn’t help that the Patriots were without linebacker Robert Spillane in Week 15 against the Bills, as well.
Campbell’s replacement, Vederian Lowe, hasn’t been perfect through 2.5 games, but he hasn’t allowed a sack. He’s let up one QB hit and six hurries in 85 pass-blocking snaps.
@Thecolours: Who do you think Vrabel would rather play in the wild card round? The Texans or the Bills for a 3rd time.
That’s a great question. I can’t read Vrabel’s mind, but I think you’d prefer to take your chances with the Texans, even though they are also a well-rounded team.
Since Texans QB C.J. Stroud came back in Week 13, their offense ranks 11th in EPA per play, and their defense is eighth.
On the entire season, the Texans’ defense ranks first in EPA per play, and their offense ranks 18th, but that includes time when Davis Mills was at quarterback.
The Bills have already beaten the Patriots once, and Sunday’s loss was pretty demoralizing for New England, giving up a 21-point lead.
@clayvc: What’s up with Diggs’ usage?
It was very surprising to see Stefon Diggs play just half of the Patriots’ offensive snaps (26) on Sunday. You’d think you’d want Diggs to play as much as possible in a game in which he’s obviously very motivated against his former team.
The Patriots used a lot of varying personnel packages in Week 15, playing multiple snaps in a pony formation with Henderson and fellow running back Rhamondre Stevenson sharing the field. Fullback Jack Westover played eight snaps, offensive tackle Thayer Munford was on the field for 10 snaps as an additional blocker, defensive tackle Khyiris Tonga played one snap at fullback, and wide receivers DeMario Douglas (10 snaps) and Kyle Williams (five snaps) both got work. The Patriots also used tight ends Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper on the field together multiple times.
Still, Mack Hollins (41 snaps) and Kayshon Boutte (39 snaps) both got more work than Diggs.
It could be a way to keep Diggs fresh, but the Patriots were coming off the bye in what should have been a must-win game. It seems the Patriots favored mixing up personnel packages over giving Diggs more snaps. Ultimately, it didn’t work.
@jordsmith897561: Who do you think gets the boot once we activate Campbell and Williams from IR? Most likely Gregory is a strong candidate, but who for Campbell? Munford good TE3 and has lots of game experience. Don’t want to lose Caeden either, he’s young and has potential OT/G flex. Foxboro Flu?
That’s another very good question. Since the Patriots signed Chad Muma off the Colts’ practice squad, they can’t cut him for three weeks. So, that takes him out of the equation.
Some other potential options are running back D’Ernest Johnson (and finding another third running back to bring off the practice squad), tight end CJ Dippre, Munford or cornerback Miles Battle. Johnson and Battle might be the easiest to get through waivers and onto the practice squad.
Munford has been dressing over rookie Marcus Bryant as the Patriots’ backup tackle, so there’s no reason to cut him at this point.
