It’s almost as if Mike Vrabel spoke this season into existence.

Win the division. Host playoff games. Compete for championships.

Vrabel first voiced his goals at his introductory press conference in mid-January, the honeymoon phase of his honeymoon phase as the Patriots’ head coach. In that same press conference, Vrabel also said he wasn’t sure if the Patriots were even good enough to “take advantage of bad football.” He was right to feel that way about a franchise coming off consecutive four-win seasons and suffering from organizational rot.

Now, how long ago does that feel?

The Patriots can clinch a division title Sunday with three games still to play on their schedule. Already, they might be the best team in the AFC. Their quarterback ought to be the MVP.

Forget exploiting bad football. How about expecting to beat good teams?

Win or lose this weekend against Buffalo, the Patriots have inarguably established themselves as a Super Bowl contender and one equal to the Bills, something that seemed impossible just three months ago. Buffalo, after all, is one of two NFL teams to reach the divisional round of the playoffs each of the last five years. That streak started when the Bills overtook the AFC East in 2020, the dawn of the ongoing post-Tom Brady era which has been a dark time in New England right up until this September.

Since then, the Pats have been reborn thanks to Vrabel, Drake Maye and a roster that has rapidly coalesced around its quarterback. That roster believes in them both, and has since the beginning, when Vrabel echoed his goals in one of his first team meetings back in the spring.

Win the division. Host playoff games. Compete for championships.

“Seeing how serious he was about it (in the meeting) made me like, ‘You know what? He’s a serious man, a man of his word. So I’ll do whatever it takes,’” Pats safety Jaylinn Hawkins said. “And we all want that, not just him. So I’ll do everything I can to help this team get there.”

In a matter of hours, the Patriots could cross off their first goal. Within weeks, they should kick off their first postseason game in six years. Weeks after that, the Super Bowl awaits.

How have the Pats returned to the top so quickly? Start here.

Coaching

New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye (10) talks with offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels before the NFL game against the New York Giants at Gillette Stadium on Monday night. (Photo By Matt Stone/Boston Herald)

The hallmark of good coaching is progress.

Progress takes form in player development, team improvement over the course of a season and how often mistakes, big and small, are corrected instead of repeated.

Development stories abound on this roster. Look no further than Maye, who has ascended faster than anyone inside or outside the building expected. At 23 years old, Maye is authoring the most accurate passing season of the modern era; a credit to offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels and new quarterbacks coach Ashton Grant who devised and executed a development play to fortify his footwork and pocket movement.

Maye’s No. 2 receiver, Kayshon Boutte, is another success story. He leads the Patriots with six touchdown catches just two years after seeing seven total targets as a rookie. Boutte’s maturation is a reflection of his work under new wide receivers coach Todd Downing, whose two decades of league experience was missing on last year’s green, ineffectual coaching staff.

Not to mention, this staff has begun to pluck low-hanging fruit with its play-calling and play design that were left to rot last year. The Patriots rank seventh in play-action rate after ranking second-to-last a year ago. Mind you, their run game is hardly much better, while their passing numbers have exploded thanks to changes, like play-action, that afford Maye clearer reads and his receivers more room to run.

Defensively, after losing coordinator Terrell Williams to a medical leave in September, the Pats have nonetheless built a top-10 unit by Expected Points Added (EPA). The highest compliment they deserve is how they do simple things well. The Patriots were the worst tackling team in the NFL through Week 3, but now have the fewest missed tackles in the league, per Pro Football Reference.

Under new defensive play-caller Zak Kuhr, the Patriots have also allowed the fewest explosive plays this season after getting torched by long runs and deep passes in September. According to SumerSports, the Pats have allowed the fewest runs of 10-plus yards and fewest passes of 15-plus yards in the league.

Patriots inside linebackers coach Zak Kuhr as the Patriots take practice at Gillette. (Staff Photo By Stuart Cahill/Boston Herald) .

Quarterback play

What more can we say about Maye?

He’s accurate throwing to all levels of the field, the best deep passer in the league, a threatening scrambler, sound decision-maker and rapid processor. He’s a demon against disguised coverage and the blitz. He is comfortable inside the pocket, outside the pocket, under pressure and on quick throws as well as off-schedule, long-developing plays.

Maye, in a matter of three months, has leapt to superstardom.

There is no glaring weakness in his game, nor coverage that solves him. No player is more responsible for the Patriots’ ascent than Maye, and it’s not close. Their passing offense is both explosive and consistent down-to-down thanks to him, ranking third in dropback success rate and second by total EPA.

Can you name another elite player on his offense? No. It’s Maye and Maye alone.

Value free-agent signings

Pick any champion or surprise playoff team of the modern era, and you will find middle-class veterans out-playing their contracts to drive winning.

Consider Eagles linebacker Zack Baun, who earned an All-Pro nod playing for free-agent pennies in his first year in Philadelphia. Or Vrabel, who won three Super Bowls as a cog in the Patriots’ machine after being cast off in Pittsburgh. The examples are endless.

And the 2025 Patriots are no exception.

Outside linebacker K’Lavon Chaisson inked a 1-year, $5 million deal in free agency last March, a textbook flier contract. Today, Chaisson leads the team in total pressures with 47, according to Pro Football Focus. Around the time Chaisson signed, center Garrett Bradbury agreed to a 2-year deal with a base value of less than $10 million. Today, he’s the only player to play 100% of the Patriots’ offensive snaps, and their only starting lineman who’s yet to allow a sack.

Out wide, veteran journeyman Mack Hollins signed for just $3.5 million guaranteed over two years, and may have already exceeded the value of his contract. Hollins is a legitimate deep threat for Maye and ranks third on the team in catches, which is to say nothing of his ferocious run-blocking. And then, there’s Stefon Diggs.

New England Patriots wide receiver Stefon Diggs celebrates his touchdown during the third quarter of an Oct. 26 game at Gillette Stadium. (Nancy Lane/Boston Herald)

Diggs agreed to what was effectively a prove-it deal back in March. His contract carries a maximum value of $69 million over three years, but less than $17 million is guaranteed and a significant chunk is tied to incentives and roster bonuses. The Patriots can cut bait without much penalty this offseason, but don’t bet on it.

With 64 catches, 705 yards and three touchdowns, plus all he’s brought as an energizing force in the locker room, Diggs has delivered more than the front office could have ever dreamed when the two sides first reached terms midway through his recovery from a torn ACL tear. His deal is a steal.

Don’t forget emerging fan favorite and burly defensive tackle Khyiris Tonga or starting safety Jaylinn Hawkins, who’s pocketed 51 tackles, two interceptions and 1.5 sacks. Hawkins re-signed for one year at $1.8 million back in March.

Impact rookies

Before he landed on injured reserve, Will Campbell was a rare commodity.

He was a rookie left tackle treading water as an NFL starter, and sometimes drowning his competition on game days. Prior to his MCL sprain, he had graded out as a top-20 offensive tackle in pass protection and an average run-blocker at Pro Football Focus. Concerns about his wingspan and arm length are all gone, replaced by a confidence in his ability to develop into a franchise left tackle.

And Campbell’s not the only rookie making a splash. In fact, Patriots rookies have played more than 1,800 snaps this season, per SumerSports, sixth-most in the league.

Second-round running back TreVeyon Henderson and third-round receiver Kyle Williams have combined for eight touchdowns, each flashing elite speed while riding the rookie roller-coaster. Fellow third-round pick and guard/center Jared Wilson has started all 11 games he’s played in this season.

And everyone on the Patriots defense is looking up at fourth-round rookie starter Craig Woodson on the playing time leaderboard. He’s logged 757 defensive snaps, most on the team, and hardly looked out of place. The same could be said for kicker Andy Borregales, a sixth-round pick who’s gone 23-of-26 on field goals and made three 50-plus yard attempts in clutch time. That includes his game-winner at Buffalo in Week 5, a landmark moment this season.

Improved game management

New England Patriots head coach Mike Vrabel reacts during the second half of an NFL football game against the New Orleans Saints, Sunday, Oct. 12, 2025, in New Orleans. (AP Photo/Butch Dill)

Remember how frustrating it felt watching Jerod Mayo bungle clock management and in-game decisions last year?

Or Bill Belichick turtle on fourth downs so often he became the antithesis of the coach who once went for it on fourth-and-2 and his own 28 against the Colts?

Well, forget that. Under Vrabel, the Patriots are one of the sharpest situational teams in the league once again, thanks to sound clock management and a properly aggressive approach on fourth down. The Pats rank No. 1 in the league with a 77.8% conversion rate on fourth down, where they keep their offense on the field most times they’re in enemy territory with six or fewer yards to go. Their 14 conversions rank fifth-most in the NFL.

The Patriots rely on analytical models to guide their in-game decision-making, but all decisions fall to Vrabel and vice president of football operations and strategy John Streicher. With Streicher in his ear on game days, Vrabel has manipulated critical game situations in the Pats’ favor, such as Maye taking an apparent dive on first-and-goal to keep the clock running with less than two minutes left before halftime in Tampa Bay. That ploy minimized any time the Buccaneers would have left to answer a potential touchdown after that drive.

Three plays later, Maye tossed a 1-yard touchdown to Diggs on fourth-and-goal with 0:00 left on the clock. The Patriots later held on to win by five.

Vrabel, however, isn’t entirely beholden to the numbers. Recognizing the importance of team morale facing quality opponents early in the season, Vrabel called for a field goal at the Bills’ 1-yard line with four seconds left before halftime in Week 5. That allowed the Patriots, then 8.5-point road underdogs in primetime, to trot into the locker room with confidence. They won by a field goal that night in one of the most hostile environments in football.

And Vrabel is no slouch when throwing the challenge flag, either. After posting the highest winning percentage on challenges of any NFL head coach from 2018-23, Vrabel’s won his last three challenges and 60% overall this season.

Culture

New England Patriots head coach Mike Vrabel celebrates wide receiver Kayshon Boutte’s touchdown during the first quarter of a NFL game against the New York Giants at Gillette Stadium. (Photo By Matt Stone/Boston Herald)

For all the opining coaches do about culture, what it means and why it’s important, it often boils down to two words: habits and attitudes.

What you enforce, and what you allow. Your messaging and consistency as a head coach, and how well a team not only follows your lead, but evolves in your image.

To anyone who has watched the Patriots for a single game this season, it’s clear they are a Mike Vrabel team. Sound, smart, physical and tough. The culture is strong in Foxboro again, rejuvenated and repaired after years of dysfunction.

The first step Vrabel took towards a new culture was prioritizing toughness and play demeanor when targeting new players in the draft and free agency.

“I think that’s probably the biggest way to build your culture, is getting the right people,” Vrabel said Friday, “and then maybe then they get – their behaviors lead to the culture that you want. And so, that’s probably the easiest way when you’re talking about toughness.”

Toughness is a non-negotiable part of playing for the Patriots. So is accountability and playing with relentless effort. Just ask D.J. James about effort’s role in Vrabel’s culture.

After making the 53-man roster outright as an unknown playmaking cornerback, the Patriots cut James a day after their season opener for lackadaisical play. Here one day, and gone the next, all because he committed a cardinal sin against the team. Effort and finish are combined as the first of four core program beliefs, which are listed on a sign in the Patriots’ meeting room.

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Vrabel also doesn’t compromise on physicality or his belief in running a merit-based program. Kyle Dugger, once one of the highest-paid players on the roster, was relegated from the first-team defense to the scout team during training camp and later traded because of his poor plan. Keion White, who often played with a lack of discipline and tumbled down the depth chart, got traded, too.

Off the field, Vrabel has also lived up to his word of caring about players by investing time this offseason through team-building exercises and meetings to get to know them. Players and coaches have shared their four H’s — hometown, heartbreak, hero and hope — before the team as a way of connecting and building bonds. After every game, Vrabel greets each player individually as they come off the field and enter the locker room.

All together, through gestures large and small and a steadfast commitment to his core beliefs, Vrabel has fostered complete buy-in from his team.

“I don’t know how he does it,” Diggs said earlier this season. “He got me to buy in, I’ll tell you that.”

Good fortune

Most great teams, and certainly every champion, find a four-leaf clover sometime during the season.

For the Patriots, good health is their clover. Milton Williams became their first starter to land on injured reserve after they played their 11th game. Will Campbell and Jared Wilson were carted off the field in Cincinnati, and yet both are expected to return this season.

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Luck factored into their offseason, too. The Patriots coveted Chris Godwin in free agency and had to settle for Diggs. They chased Ronnie Stanley and instead landed on Campbell. Both moves, with Diggs in the short-term and Campbell for the long haul, appear to be huge wins.

Strength of schedule has been another steady wind at the Patriots’ back. Their schedule is a historic cakewalk, according to the opponent-and-situation-adjusted metric DVOA. They have played or will play just four games against playoff opponents based on the current postseason picture, including two versus Buffalo.

This is a function of the NFL’s schedule formula, which weighs their last-place division finish last year, and good fortune, because opponents like the Ravens, Buccaneers and Bengals fell woefully short of expectations this year. But the Patriots’ season hinges on the division.

If not Sunday versus the Bills, ensuing games versus the Jets and Dolphins should decide their playoff seeding and perhaps fate. Once Vrabel voiced his plan to claim the AFC East back in the spring, one player, who has suffered under the Bills’ thumb every year since he entered the league in 2020, knew the Patriots’ only path would take them through Buffalo.

“They’ve won the division five years straight, so we have to eventually face them, and get back to that,” said outside linebacker Anfernee Jennings. “We knew that we couldn’t do all of that right at that moment. But if we knew we put the work in, and took it one day at a time and one game at a time, we’d have the opportunity to be in that position.”

And look around. Here they are.

Quote of the Week

“It’s important. It’s really important to do it here. We’ve got a chance to face (the Bills) head-to-head. I mean, there’s no better way to win the division than with the team that’s fighting to crawl back and to keep themselves as division champs. So, it’s an opportunity for us to do it here, do it versus them and control your own destiny. That’s what we have.” — Drake Maye on clinching the AFC East on Sunday instead of allowing Buffalo to linger in the division race