10 leftover Patriots thoughts and nuggets on the coaching search and 2024 season

It’s over.

The football, the firing, the drama. It’s almost time to turn the page again with a new regime.

But until then, here are 10 leftover thoughts on the Patriots’ 2024 season and coaching search:

1. Patriots’ unsound search

Rushing to hire the best head-coaching candidate available is logical enough on the surface. Just set up an interview, and seal the deal.

And Mike Vrabel, to be clear, has always been the best candidate this cycle.

He owns a 54-45 record as a head coach, despite never working with an elite quarterback. He reached an AFC Championship Game and clinched the conference’s No. 1 seed in separate seasons. The floor for Vrabel’s second head-coaching run figures to be some version of his first, whereas projecting how a first-timer like Ben Johnson would function as a head coach — as talented and creative as he might be as a coordinator — is impossible.

But setting aside the brazenness with which the Patriots flouted the Rooney Rule this week, and the larger conversation around NFL’s diversity hiring practices, expediting this search was a business mistake.

The Patriots have fallen behind the times organizationally. Widening this search to interview more candidates would have let ownership pick the brains of the NFL’s best coaches about what drives their success and how their franchises run. It would have yielded valuable perspectives from competitors about how the Patriots operate, their roster and blindspots.

New England Patriots owner Robert Kraft speaks at Gillette Stadium on Jan. 6, 2025. (Nancy Lane/Boston Herald)

The Krafts eschewed all of that by hitting fast-forward on this search; a search where half of the interviews included candidates who haven’t coached in the NFL since 2022.

Second, everything about this search reeked of what you would call urgency at best, or desperation at worst. Firing Mayo immediately after the game. Interviewing said unemployed coaches, Byron Leftwich and Pep Hamilton, 48 hours later seemingly to clear a hiring roadblock.

By the time Vrabel flew in Wednesday night, his bargaining position with the Patriots had strengthened without him saying the word. All of ownership’s actions to that point undercut their own leverage and screamed a lack of a backup plan.

Which, again, hiring the best coach should be the goal. But anyone following this search could reasonably assume Vrabel might ask for the moon and make almost any demand of the Krafts, and they would probably throw in a few stars as sweeteners just to get a deal done.

Not the type of deal-making you like to see from leadership, even if Vrabel deserves the moon and hiring him might be all that matters.

2. Deep-dive leftovers

In reporting for the story I co-authored with the Herald’s Doug Kyed this week on the Patriots’ 2024 season, there were a few nuggets left on the cutting room floor.

New England Patriots head coach Jerod Mayo gets a hug from Dell Pettus as he walks off the field after the game at Gillette Stadium. (Nancy Lane/Boston Herald)

(Author’s note: this occurs with all enterprise journalism, where as much information is gathered as possible in the reporting process and then streamlined when writing to present most pertinent information in order to tell an accurate, fair and representative story.)

For example, the Patriots typically spent less time in meetings the night before games under Jerod Mayo than they did under Bill Belichick. Two sources said they didn’t see a connection between decreased meeting time and team’s performance, noting sometimes Belichick would keep his meeting shorts or the messaging could vary; from hype-up videos to detailing why the team “sucked.”

“There was no real rhyme or reason why Bill – I mean, in his mind I’m sure there was – changed his meetings, but to the player there wasn’t,” one source said.

As for Mayo, his issues establishing a clear vision for the program persisted throughout the year.

“I think Jerod had a vision on what he wanted to try to do,” a team source said. “Did he execute that? At times, yes. At times, no.”

As amother source put it: “This year was the oddest.”

3. Leftover quote I

New England Patriots defensive lineman Christian Barmore looks at Davon Godchaux on the bench after the defense gave up a touchdown during a game at Gillette Stadium. (Nancy Lane/Boston Herald)

“Problems with the run defense came up with guys doing on their own that the coaches were not teaching. They were doing s— on their own, sometimes taking the easy way out.” — team source on 2024 defense

4. Leftover quote II

“I really thought (Ja’Lynn) Polk was gonna have a good year. He’s very talented, and now it’s just him getting a belief back in himself. He had a good camp, a comfortable preseason, but you can’t get down on yourself. Just gotta delete social media.” — a Patriots player on second-round rookie receiver Ja’Lynn Polk

5. Assistants could stay

The arrival of a new Patriots head coach may not guarantee all assistants are let go.

From what I’ve heard, I wouldn’t be surprised if a few staff members want to stay and stick in 2025. Others, including defensive coordinator DeMarcus Covington, have already begun exploring opportunities.

6. What’s next for Wolf?

New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye (10) stands on the sideline next to Eliot Wolf, the team’s executive vice president of player personnel, during the first half of a NFL preseason game against the Carolina Panthers on Aug. 8 in Foxboro. (AP Photo/Mark Stockwell)

On Monday, Kraft said not only would executive vice president of player personnel Eliot Wolf help lead the team’s head-coaching search, but remain on staff with senior personnel executive Alonzo Highsmith.

“We are looking for people working together and they will be staying on,” Kraft said.

Now the question is: for how long?

Wolf could lose a power struggle to the new head coach, who will likely want a hand-picked partner leading the personnel department. My gut feeling is Wolf and the Krafts would be open to his demotion, should it come to that. Wolf is a scout at heart and would otherwise be staring at a third move for his family in five years, while he remains on the cusp of one day becoming a general manager.

If he can remain in New England, maintain a high-ranking position in the front office and interview elsewhere for GM jobs, why not take that opportunity over a firing?

Of course, whether Wolf keeps his job or is offered a demotion may not be up to him. Kraft sounds like he has Wolf’s back, as the Patriots continue to acclimate to a Packers-style scouting system and operation.

“Yeah. I think that the department evolved a lot, and a lot of things were changed. We changed our grading system this year and have done things,” Kraft said Monday. “Our drafts have not been good for a while. If you want to compete long term and be good in this league, you’ve got to have good drafts because those rookie contracts allow you to go out and get the people you need.”

Even if Wolf and Highsmith continue to lead the personnel department through the draft, there is precedent for a lame-duck GM losing his title in mid-May, when most front office shuffling occurs around the NFL. In 2017, the Bills hired Sean McDermott as their head coach, kept incumbent GM Doug Whaley in place, then fired Whaley after the draft so McDermott could work with former Panthers colleague Brandon Beane.

Since then, McDermott and Beane have led the Bills to an AFC East title in five of their eight years working together.

7. Way-too-early draft prediction

Penn State defensive end Abdul Carter (11) pass rushes during the third quarter of an NCAA college football game against Washington, Saturday, Nov. 9, 2024, in State College, Pa. (AP Photo/Barry Reeger)

“With the No. 4 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, the New England Patriots select … Abdul Carter, defensive end, Penn State.”

In a draft class light on blue-chip players, Carter is the rare premium talent at a premium position. Carter profiles as a prototypical Patriots edge rusher, standing at 6-foot-3 and 251 pounds with the ability to drop into coverage. He earned All-American honors, tallying 68 tackles, 12 sacks and 24 tackles for loss last season.

The Patriots finished the season as arguably the worst pass-rushing team in the NFL, and if Christian Barmore’s future is uncertain over his blood clots, this need becomes even greater.

Two notes: offensive line remains their top need, and this selection presupposes two quarterbacks and Colorado wide receiver/cornerback Travis Hunter are selected in the top three.

8. The cost of winning

By beating the Bills in their regular season finale, the Patriots dropped from the No. 1 overall pick in the draft to No. 4. How much did that drop hurt, exactly?

New England Patriots quarterback Joe Milton III throws during the first half of an NFL game, Sunday, Jan. 5, 2025, in Foxboro. (AP Photo/Robert F. Bukaty)

According to Rich Hill’s draft trade value chart, which is annually updated to reflect how teams treat draft picks in trades, the Patriots lost 509 points of value AKA more than half of what the No. 1 overall pick is worth on its own. That drop in value is roughly equivalent to losing another top-5 pick, per Hill’s chart, or a first-round pick between 10th and 15th overall paired with a high second-round pick or a late first-rounder, second-round pick and third-round selection.

It’s unclear if the Patriots could have fetched a typical return for the No. 1 overall pick, with Miami’s Cam Ward and Colorado’s Shadeur Sanders seen as the only worthy first-round picks at quarterback. However, treating the No. 1 pick as being worth 1,000 points, they are now stuck with a pick worth 491. (Most NFL teams abide by charts like this over Jimmy Johnson’s original model that inspired better, modernized versions.)

9. Re-sign Jonathan Jones

The elder statesman of the Patriots defense, Jones deserves to return in 2025.

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Yes, he’s past his prime. But Jones can serve as an off-the-bench utility man in the secondary, playing deep safety, nickelback or outside corner depending on matchups or teammates’ health. He’s also a living, breathing example of why hard work can work in the right program, having lived the last 3-4 years of the Patriots’ dynasty.

Jones was one of the few true leaders on defense last season, something the Patriots sorely need heading into next year. He is now among their top internal free agents, along with tight end Austin Hooper, defensive lineman Deatrich Wise and quarterback Jacoby Brissett.

10. Super Bowl pick

I’ll go Chiefs-Eagles, pt. II.

Here’s hoping for a changeup, like the Bills, Lions, Ravens, Vikings or hell, even the Chargers crashing the party. But I can’t pull myself away from picking Patrick Mahomes and a well-balanced, experienced team with high-end talent in the Eagles, who upset a banged-up Lions team en route to New Orleans.

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