Patriots-Bills preview: How Drake Maye can finish the season with a win
Ready or not, here it comes.
The Patriots’ season will end with a whimper Sunday, when the Bills visit and plan to play mostly backups after locking up the No. 2 seed in the AFC playoffs. Buffalo has little reason to game plan specifically for the Pats and risk injury to its best players. In fact, head coach Sean McDermott said quarterback and league MVP candidate Josh Allen will only start Sunday to maintain his personal streak of 114 consecutive starts.
As for the Patriots, offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt said Drake Maye will start and could finish the game. Maye was listed on the team’s practice report with a new right hand injury, though the rookie all but cleared himself this week saying he felt “great.” The only question now is, how long will Maye play?
Fellow first-year quarterback Joe Milton III, the only Patriots rookie not to take a snap this season, took his first starting reps of the season in practice this week; potentially an indication the staff could split time between him and Maye. After all, the Patriots are incentivized to lose, with the No. 1 overall pick in hand. Though, Van Pelt, Maye and Mayo insisted all week they planned to go all out to beat Buffalo.
Will they do it? Can they do it? Here’s what to watch for in Foxboro:
When the Patriots run
Few players could use a strong finish more than Rhamondre Stevenson.
New England Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson (38) carries the ball for a touchdown against the Buffalo Bills during the second quarter of an NFL football game, Sunday, Dec. 22, 2024, in Orchard Park, N.Y.. (AP Photo/Jeffrey T. Barnes)
The serial fumbler ran for minus-one yard last weekend against the Chargers on two carries, and has dropped the ball every game going on six weeks now. Stevenson is also down to 3.9 yards per carry on the season, after opening with his only 100-yard game of the season. Antonio Gibson remains the Pats’ best player at breaking tackles, something he did five times in their first matchup with Buffalo.
In that game, the Patriots also leaned heavily on their outside zone scheme, and involved Maye as a runner four times. Will Van Pelt go back to the same wells on Sunday?
When the Patriots pass
Maye’s play under pressure has waned the last two weeks, starting with a lackluster second half at Buffalo when he threw a costly interception and flipped a backwards lateral for a defensive touchdown. If Maye can protect the ball, the Pats will have a real shot.
Given their success in the first meeting, look for the Bills to try and pressure Maye again Sunday. That means extra rushers on blitzes, as well as creative simulated pressures that send four rushers from unusual places in the defense. To counter, Maye will need to find slot receiver DeMario Douglas in space and/or his tight ends over the middle of the field. Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper have been the Patriots’ most consistent players all season, and figure to factor heavily into Sunday’s plan.
Patriots rookie QB Joe Milton takes first first-teams reps of season in practice
That said, all could change if Milton sees the field. The rocket-armed rookie can and should look long, which would mean targets for Kayshon Boutte and fourth-round pick Javon Baker, who profiled as a big-play threat as a draft prospect but still doesn’t have a catch in the NFL.
When the Bills run
Even if Allen only plays a series or two, the Patriots must be mindful of the quarterback run game. Mitchell Trubisky, his veteran backup, can scoot and may be involved on designed runs or tempted to scramble against a defense that has generated minimal pressure this season.
In the traditional run game, James Cook has enjoyed a brilliant year with 981 yards and 15 touchdowns. He rushed for 100 yards on the dot against the Patriots two weeks ago, ripping off a 46-yard touchdown in the first half and a 12-yard run that effectively ended the game in the final minutes. Naturally, the Pats had breakdowns on both plays; one on the edge and another inside.
Veteran defensive lineman Davon Godchaux and linebacker Jahlani Tavai figure to key the Patriots’ ability to stop the run in the middle, while Keion While and Anfernee Jennings must keep contain on the edge.
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When the Bills pass
Time to man up.
Two weeks ago, the Patriots played more than 60% of their passing snaps in man-to-man coverage. Veteran corner Jonathan Jones successfully shadowed the Bills’ top target and slot receiver, Khalil Shakir, while Christian Gonzalez shut down one side of the field. Even though Gonzalez is out Sunday, the Pats are likely to stick to man coverage, just as they did last weekend versus the Chargers. That will allow them the best chance to evaluate young corners like Alex Austin and Isaiah Bolden.
Up front, generating sacks, hits and hurries figures again to be a struggle. White, Jennings and Jeremiah Pharms Jr. are the only defenders to generate multiple pressures in a single game since November. Meanwhile, the Bills’ offensive line ranks among the best pass-protecting units in the league.
Game pick
Buffalo 24, Patriots 20