Patriots-Jets preview: Can Jerod Mayo’s Pats pull a Thursday Night Football upset?

No time to look back.

Four nights later, the Patriots are kicking off again.

In their only primetime game of the year, the Pats will battle the rival Jets tonight at 8:15. Aaron Rodgers and Co. have flown home after collecting their first win of the year, a 24-17 road triumph over the Titans. But like the Patriots, they sit at 1-1 with a struggling pass offense and a defense that’s suffered a couple significant injuries.

The Jets are nonetheless slated as 6.5-point favorites in their home opener.

Here’s what to watch for tonight in New Jersey:

When the Patriots run

After piling up 185 rush yards last Sunday, don’t expect the Pats to take their foot off the gas now.

If anything, facing a Jets run defense that’s allowed 4.7 yards per carry and ranks bottom 10 by DVOA and Pro Football Focus grades, Rhamondre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson might see the ball more than ever. The only question is how well their offensive line can clear rushing lanes.

The Patriots will start their third different left tackle in as many games, with Vederian Lowe (knee) ruled out and rookie Caedan Wallace in line to take his place. Starting center David Andrews and right tackle Mike Onwenu are also banged up with fresh injuries. Onwenu’s play will be particularly key, after the Pats averaged 6.4 yards per play when rushing behind him against Seahawks.

From a matchup standpoint, however, Andrews’ play will be paramount. All-Pro defensive tackle Quinnen Williams is the lone game-wrecker left on the Jets defensive front. If the Pats can block him up on early downs, they can control the game.

When the Patriots pass

Since DeMario Douglas went catch-less against Seattle, the Patriots have all but advertised they plan to get their dynamic slot receiver the ball.

Jacoby Brissett: Patriots plan to attempt more downfield passes

Jacoby Brissett said as much Tuesday. Jerod Mayo declared Monday the Pats must get the ball downfield. Stats aside, Douglas remains their best separator and receiver over the middle. If offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt can scheme Douglas some touches in space, he should make the Jets pay. New York has logged 27 missed tackles, per PFF, and ranks among the sloppiest tackling teams in the league.

Beyond play-calling, the key to jump-starting the Pats’ passing attack will be protection. Brissett has come under fire on 45% of his dropbacks, an untenable number over a full season. Lucky for the Pats, New York lost starting defensive end Jermaine Johnson to a season-ending injury, and the Jets’ pressure rate ranks among the lowest in the league through Week 2.

But if the offensive line proves again shaky early in the game, more screens and quick passes could help offset whatever pressure the Jets do bring.

When the Jets run

New York Jets running back Breece Hall stiff-arms New England Patriots safety Kyle Dugger during the second quarter of a game at Gillette Stadium. (Nancy Lane/Boston Herald)

Statistically, Jets running back Breece Hall has stumbled out of the blocks this season. The Patriots can’t afford to be the team that lets him reach full speed.

Hall is a powerful runner with breakaway speed he’s yet to show off, averaging just 3.9 yards per carry with a season-long rush of 30 yards. As an offense low on perimeter weapons, the Jets want a balanced attack that heavily features their star back, who ran for 178 yards last year at New England.

Therefore, the loss of run-stuffing linebacker Ja’Whaun Bentley to a torn pec could hardly come at a worse time for the Pats. Their defense will need big nights from defensive tackles Davon Godchaux and Daniel Ekuale, plus Bentley’s chief replacement, Raekwon McMillan. So far, McMillan, who played well against Seattle and is amid his eighth NFL season, sounds ready for the task.

“I can just go out there with the same mentality that he has: be physical in the run game, play the passing lanes right and just be a presence in the middle of the defense,” he said this week.

When the Jets pass

In both games this season, the Patriots’ defensive game plan has started with Christian Gonzalez shadowing the opposing No. 1 receiver. It would be a surprise to see that change tonight.

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Jacoby Brissett: Patriots plan to attempt more downfield passes

Jets star Garrett Wilson is coming off consecutive 1,000-yard seasons to open his career, and remains far and away the best wideout on the roster. In his only prior meeting with Gonzalez, the Patriots’ former first-round pick scored a win, holding Wilson to five harmless catches for 49 yards. Speaking this week, Rodgers praised Gonzalez, whom he met last season while they rehabbed from season-ending injuries.

“I think he’s a great player,” Rodgers said. “He was in our rehab at the Achilles factory in the offseason. Wasn’t rehabbing an Achilles, but he was out there. Got to know him just a little bit. He’s a great kid. He’s super, super talented. I mean, he is an elite player.”

Up front, the Patriots need Keion White (four sacks) to continue applying pressure. Until Joshua Uche or Deatrich Wise (questionable, shoulder) prove otherwise, there are no other pass rushers winning consistently on passing downs. The Patriots could opt to blitz Rodgers, who is 5-of-10 for 49 yards against extra rushers this season, per PFF; but that assumes they feel confident in 1-on-1 coverage down field.

After Wilson’s team-high 17 targets, Hall (14) and veteran receiver Allen Lazard (13) are the only Jets to see more than five passes this season. Lazard has eight catches for 100 yards and two touchdowns.

Game pick

Jets 20, Patriots 19

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