The Patriots should be 2-0.

Instead, they have two big problems.

No. 1: pass protection.

For a second straight week, Jacoby Brissett came under fire like he was playing out of a trench. Brissett faced pressure on 44% of his dropbacks, a frighteningly high percentage that matched the sky-high pressure rate he saw at Cincinnati. In the last nine days, the Patriots have also lost one left tackle to injury and another to irony in that Chukwuma Okorafor, well, left.

No. 2: the play-callers are green.

Seattle out-foxed offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt and turned defensive coordinator DeMarcus Covington’s aggression against him in critical situations Sunday. The Seahawks protected themselves against all of Van Pelt’s deep play-action shots, while Seattle offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb burned the Pats’ trademark all-out blitzes for a touchdown in the first quarter and two back-breaking first downs in overtime.

All three times, Grubb predicted blitz, got blitz and burned blitz. And did I mention Seattle stole from a Bill Belichick blocking scheme to beat it? More on that later.

The Patriots’ wide receivers live at the intersection of their offensive problems. They cannot catch the ball if Brissett is not protected and/or if Van Pelt doesn’t scheme targets for them. The wideouts were held to three catches for 19 yards.

So what happened? In addition to bringing a barrage of pressure, the Seahawks defended half of the Patriots’ passing plays in man-to-man and allowed three yards per play. Playing zone, they dropped into a mix of traditional spot-drop and other versions with matchup principles, yielding just 5.5 yards per dropback.

Sacks don’t tell full story behind Patriots’ offensive line woes

That split, and how effective Seattle was playing both coverage families, says everything about the Pats’ passing woes: blame belongs to everybody. The truth about wide receivers is coaches get them open versus zone, but they must free themselves against man-to-man. Neither happened often enough, especially in light of the Patriots’ protection issues.

And yet, the Pats were still just one field goal and one defensive stop away from their second upset in as many weeks; meaning this loss is shared by those phases, too, and they enjoyed small successes along the way.

Here’s what the film revealed about the Patriots’ loss:

Critical areas

Turnovers: Patriots 0, Seahawks 0

Explosive play rate: Patriots 7.5%, Seahawks 3.0%

Success rate: Patriots 44%, Seahawks 49%

Red-zone efficiency: Patriots 2-4, Seahawks 1-3

Defensive pressure rate: Patriots 27%, Seahawks 46.8%

Jacoby Brissett

Foxboro, MA – New England Patriots quarterback Jacoby Brissett gets off an incomplete pass as he is hauled down during the third quarter of the game at Gillette Stadium. (Nancy Lane/Boston Herald)

15-of-27 for 149 yards, TD

Accurate throw percentage: 76.2%

Under pressure: 4-of-11 for 47 yards, 3 sacks

Against the blitz: 3-of-4 for 32 yards

Behind the line: 2-of-2 for 37 yards

0-9 yards downfield: 11-of-14 for 97 yards

10-19 yards downfield: 2-of-4 for 15 yards, TD

20+ yards downfield: 0-of-1

Notes: Believe it or not, Jacoby Brissett is playing well enough.

Through two weeks, he ranks 10th in QBR, a refined version of passer rating that (unlike its namesake) accounts for fumbles, scrambles and game situations. He ranks 10th in success rate, a reflection of how well a quarterback keeps his offense on schedule.

This, of course, does not square with Brissett’s traditional box-score stats or the eye test. The chief reason for those discrepancies is Brissett’s greatest strengths – avoiding sacks and protecting the ball – are not captured by traditional metrics, which also do not consider his atypical circumstances. Again, consider the avalanche of pressure he’s facing.

Brissett has been hit or hurried 28 times, but despite that, he’s allowed pressure to result in sacks – a quarterback-driven stat – just 14% of the time. It’s a miracle. And it’s keeping the Patriots’ offense alive, because sacks kill drives.

You saw this Sunday, when the Patriots punted on every possession Brissett went backwards. Whereas, when he avoided pressure, they often scored. Brissett ripped two completions after side-stepping rushers on the first touchdown drive. Then he beat a blitz on the Pats’ next series, which led to a field goal, and scrambled to sustain a field goal drive later in the first half.

As a passer, Brissett has not been overwhelmingly accurate or aggressive. The so-so accuracy is a staple of his game as one of the NFL’s 20th-to-30th-best quarterbacks. This is no surprise.

But Brissett must attack more downfield. Of course, he will need help. That starts with Van Pelt’s play-calling and the receivers separating deep, since the offensive line’s current slate of injuries indicates the pass protection will get worse before it gets better.

Offense

Foxboro, MA – Offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt talks with Jacoby Brissett during the fourth quarter of the game at Gillette Stadium. (Nancy Lane/Boston Herald)

Game plan

Personnel breakdown: 58% of snaps in 11 personnel, 33% snaps in 12 personnel, 6% snaps in 13 personnel, 3% in jumbo personnel.***

Personnel production: 31.5% success rate in 11 personnel, 54.5% success rate in 12 personnel, 75% success rate in 13 personnel, 100% in jumbo personnel.

First-down down play-calls: 64% run (44% success rate), 36% pass (40% success rate)

Play-action rate: 20.6%

Offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt worked from another run-heavy plan built on man-blocked runs (power, counter and duo) and the belief the Patriots had receiving mismatches in tight ends Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper. Henry piled up 109 yards working the vacated middle of the field against Seattle’s two-deep structure early, often sitting down against zone. Hooper even shared the field with him in obvious passing situations, playing half of the Patriots’ third-down snaps before halftime.

Targeting the tight ends helped avoid matchup problems outside, where Seattle cornerbacks Devon Witherspoon and Riq Woolen could handle every Patriots receiver they faced. When Van Pelt wanted to take shots outside, Seattle was prepared; something Brissett mentioned post-game citing a “tell.”

If there was a tell, it may have been game situation. The Seahawks short-circuited Van Pelt’s first deep play-action pass from midfield (a popular area for shot plays) with a blitz on first-and-10. Later, after the Patriots defense had forced a turnover on downs, Seattle dropped two safeties 30 yards downfield to deny a play-action bomb Van Pelt called on the next play from scrimmage (a popular time for shot plays). Brissett scrambled.

Overall, the Pats stalled when the Seahawks began flexing their coverage advantage in the second quarter, pivoting to more man-to-man and loaded boxes. After posting a 56% success rate on their opening three drives, the Pats produced a dismal 23.5% success rate over their next four possessions, which stretched into the fourth quarter. It was then that the offense finally freed itself with an adjustment.

Van Pelt called four outside zone runs in five plays at the start of their last touchdown drive. Within those calls, he sprinkled in a pin-and-pull variation to keep Seattle off-balance; a scheme that includes man and zone-blocking principles and birthed rushes of nine and later 45 yards for Antonio Gibson.

But forced to pass in the final minute and start of overtime, the Patriots had no shot. Their 31.5% success rate from 11 personnel (three wide receivers, one running back, tight end) is downright abysmal, and yet that has been their most common personnel grouping in each of the first two games. Changes are due: either in the snaps allocated to these receivers or a wholesale shift toward multiple tight ends or running backs.

Player stats

Foxboro, MA – New England Patriots’ Rhamondre Stevenson scores during the fourth quarter of the game at Gillette Stadium. (Nancy Lane/Boston Herald)

Broken tackles: RB Rhamondre Stevenson 3, RB Antonio Gibson 3, QB Jacoby Brissett

Pressure allowed: LT Vederian Lowe 4 (3 hurries, QB hit), RG Layden Robinson 4 (3 hurries, sack), RT Mike Onwenu 3 (2 hurries, QB hit), LG Michael Jordan (sack), QB Jacoby Brissett (sack), Team (hurry)

Run stuffs allowed: Team 3, Onwenu

Drops: TE Hunter Henry

Notes

Right now, this offense is a fastball pitcher who throws gas — and that’s it.
The Patriots have no established changeup or Plan B. They can bludgeon opponents with their run game, and do so with increasing efficiency whenever they beef up their personnel. The more tight ends and extra offensive linemen, the better.
But zooming out, little about this operation feels sustainable without an early lead. Brissett is propping up their passing attack with veteran savvy and sack avoidance, but eventually pressure breaks everything.
Brissett flashed said savvy catching Seattle’s defense unsettled on a quick snap before his touchdown pass to Ja’Lynn Polk in the first quarter. He made a high-low read to his left, drawing the nearby safety away from the throwing window he wanted, then ripped his pass for Polk.

In that first quarter, Brissett was pressured on roughly one-quarter of his dropbacks. Down the stretch, he was hurried or hit on each of his last five pass attempts, the most critical in the game.
A couple solutions: going up-tempo to wear out full-time defensive linemen, and more quick-game concepts through DeMario Douglas. It’s inexcusable that Douglas has seen just four targets in two games, including the pass interference penalty he drew Sunday.
Douglas, as the Patriots’ best separator and weapon versus man-to-man, ought to be featured on pick-route combinations, screens and go-to concepts.
Van Pelt tried to free Douglas on a couple wheel routes that involved switch releases – where receivers criss-cross early in their patterns (possibly to confuse Seattle’s match coverage rules) – but the concepts took too long to develop.
More hard running from Rhamondre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson, who combined for 140 yards after contact, per Pro Football Focus.
Up front, right tackle Mike Onwenu played one of his worst games in recent memory. That performance – while better than what Vederian Lowe and Layden Robinson offered – deserves more scrutiny given the sizable contract he inked in free agency.
Still, the Patriots make their money running behind Onwenu. They averaged 6.4 yards per carry rushing behind their right tackle, including a couple weakside runs that allowed Onwenu to control the edge.

One exception: Stevenson’s touchdown run off the left side on a play called “G-lead,” where the playside guard pulls ahead. Fun wrinkle.
Stat to Monitor: The Patriots have been blitzed just six times in two games, yet are allowing one of the highest pressure rates in the NFL.
From the look-how-far-they’ve-come department: the Patriots played back-to-back games without a turnover for the first time since Dec. 1, 2022.

Defense

Game plan

Personnel breakdown: 51% three-corner nickel package, 25% dime, 22% three-safety nickel, 1% base, 1% goal-line.****

Coverage breakdown: 70% zone, 30% man

Blitz rate: 27%

Blitz efficacy: 69% offensive success rate and 13.2 yards per play allowed

The Seahawks waited them out.

Seattle knew the Patriots would eventually dip into their preferred Cover 0 AKA all-out blitz package, which features several variations but ultimately trusts their secondary to cover 1-on-1 downfield. The Seahawks burned them initially on Metcalf’s touchdown, then again on their final first-down conversions in overtime to set up a game-winning field goal.

Overall, Seattle quarterback Geno Smith went 10-of-12 for 171 yards, a touchdown, one sack and a scramble versus the blitz. The worst part? Seattle used a blocking scheme Bill Belichick concocted to beat his old defense.

During a divisional-round playoff game at Denver in 2006, the Patriots motioned a wide receiver to block an edge defender at the snap and eliminate the Broncos’ man advantage when running all-out blitzes that banked on the fact they could always rush one more defender than the offense could handle. That receiver, covered by a defensive back, temporarily left his defender in no man’s land and allowed Tom Brady extra time because his block prevented the defense from overloading the offensive line with blitzers. Eventually, the Broncos defender in coverage would blitz, too, but by then Brady had time to attack downfield, instead of throwing short.

That’s exactly what Smith did on Metcalf’s touchdown.

The Patriots’ initial plan consisted mostly of creative four-man pressures backed by soft zone, and one zone-blitz that triggered a Keion White/Daniel Ekuale sack. Defensive coordinator DeMarcus Covington allowed safety Kyle Dugger to make frequent checks at the line to combat Seattle’s regular audibles, but the Seahawks stayed a step ahead. Smith was hardly bothered after the initial sack, always detecting when and where the Patriots would send extra pressure.

It felt like the Pats were often pressing to force Seattle off-schedule, save for a fourth-and-1 stop early in the third quarter, and eventually ran out of options in overtime.

On the last possession before halftime, Covington called a zone blitz on third-and-7 at midfield, where the Seahawks needed at least 10 yards to get into field goal range. Anything short of the sticks, and they would have punted. They didn’t, they got more and eventually kicked a field goal.

His most curious call was another third-and-7 prior to the fourth-down stop, when Smith hit a 24-yard completion against a zone blitz that dropped White and Joshua Uche more than 20 yards downfield. Sometimes, it’s the simpler the better.

Player stats

Foxboro, MA – New England Patriots’ Kyle Dugger celebrates stopping the Seattle Seahawks on fourth down during the third quarter of the game at Gillette Stadium. (Nancy Lane/Boston Herald)

Pressure: DL Keion White 4 (1.5 sacks, QB hit, hurry), LB Raekwon McMillan 2 (2 hurries), S Kyle Dugger (sack), DL Daniel Ekuale (0.5 sack), OLB Joshua Uche (QB hit), DL Deatrich Wise (hurry), DL Jeremiah Pharms Jr. (hurry), DB Marcus Jones (hurry), Team (hurry)

Run-stuffs: Team 2, Wise

Pass deflections: CB Christian Gonzalez, S Jaylinn Hawkins, Jones, Wise

Missed tackles: Jones 3, Dugger, McMillan, White, LB Jahlani Tavai, LB Anfernee Jennings

Notes

Again, the Patriots tasked Christian Gonzalez with shadowing an opposing No. 1 receiver. This time, the shadow waned as the game wore on.
Gonzalez rarely saw Metcalf in man-to-man, as the Pats played a lower rate of man coverage than normal; possibly afraid of their matchups or Seattle’s big-play ability. Gonzalez gave up four catches as Metcalf’s primary defender, and was in the vicinity for his 56-yard touchdown, which busted a bad max blitz call.
Overall in man-to-man, Smith went 8-of-12 for 101 yards with a sack and two drops. Brutal numbers for a defense that prides itself on playing straight up.
Kyle Dugger took responsibility for Metcalf’s touchdown post-game, and otherwise played an excellent game with a short-yardage stop and a sack.
Dugger and Peppers again played 100% of the team’s defensive snaps, followed by Gonzalez and linebacker Jahlani Tavai at 99%. Tavai becomes an irreplaceable cog in this defense now with Ja’Whaun Bentley lost for the season.
Up front, the same can be said for Keion White, who is the only threatening pass rusher on this roster right now. The Pats are playing nose tackle Davon Godchaux in certain passing situations, and he combined with fellow D-tackle Daniel Ekuale to play almost 100 combined snaps.
It’s time to call up Alex Austin as the team’s new No. 3 cornerback. The Seahawks picked on Marco Wilson, who rotated with veteran Jonathan Jones, and played 20% of the defensive snaps. Wilson got flagged for pass interference and gave up a long catch.
No, Jones should not have been flagged for defensive pass interference in overtime. Yes, the Patriots had chances to stop Seattle after that, and didn’t.
Rough game for Marcus Jones, who missed three tackles and got lucky on a Seahawks drop. Overall, Seattle dropped five passes, including two by Metcalf.
Another nice outing for the run defense, though the Seahawks’ offensive line hardly struck any fear, playing with subpar guards and a third-string right tackle.

Special teams

Foxboro, MA – New England Patriots place kicker Joey Slye’s field goal attempt was blocked during the fourth quarter of the game at Gillette Stadium. (Nancy Lane/Boston Herald)

Tight end Austin Hooper stopped no one on Seattle’s fourth-quarter field goal block that may have kept the Patriots from a regulation win. The Seahawks overloaded his half of the line, and Julian Love flew right by.
A strong day from punter Bryce Baringer, who averaged 47.3 net yards per boot and dropped half of his six punts inside Seattle’s 20-yard line.
There was one exception: his final punt in the first half that landed in the middle of the field, where returner Dee Williams zipped 23 yards to give his offense a short field with 0:35 left on the clock.

Studs

TE Hunter Henry

A career-high 109 receiving yards says it all.

RB Antonio Gibson

Gibson’s 45-yard run started by forcing a missed tackle and finished as the Patriots’ longest play of the day. He was, for one game, better than Stevenson, even in limited action.

Duds

RT Mike Onwenu

The Patriots need more from their best offensive linemen, especially in pass protection.

LT Vederian Lowe

Currently out with a knee injury, it says something the Patriots would be better off with Lowe, who has allowed four pressures in back-to-back games.

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Statistics for passing depth, broken tackles and missed tackles courtesy of Pro Football Focus.

*Explosive plays are defined as runs of 12-plus yards and passes of 20-plus yards. After turnover margin, explosive play rate is the metric most strongly correlated with winning.

**Success rate is an efficiency metric measuring how often an offense stays on schedule. A play is successful when it gains at least 40% of yards-to-go on first down, 60% of yards-to-go on second down and 100% of yards-to-go on third or fourth down.

***11 personnel = one running back, one tight end; 12 personnel = one running back, two tight ends; 13 personnel = one running back, three tight ends; jumbo = two halfbacks, three tight ends.

****Base defense = four defensive backs; nickel defense = five defensive backs; dime defense = six defensive backs; goal-line defense = three defensive backs.