Here we go.

This one counts.

The Patriots will kick off their 2024 season soon in Cincinnati as the biggest underdogs of Week 1. The Pats are banking on a strong defense and capable run game to carry them in a developmental season, where team leadership has one eye on the future. Much is to be learned about new coach Jerod Mayo, first-year offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt and a roster that consists almost 50% of new faces.

That all starts Sunday.

Here’s how the Patriots’ season opener breaks down:

When the Patriots run

Rhamondre Stevenson is locked in as the Patriots’ new bell cow back. The only question is: who’s blocking in front of him?

The Patriots have shuffled their offensive line all summer, most notably moving Mike Onwenu from right guard to right tackle over the past few weeks. Onwenu, center David Andrews and left guard Sidy Sow would have formed a formidable interior, except Sow is out with an ankle injury and fourth-round rookie Layden Robinson will replace Onwenu at guard. That’s a lot of change around Andrews.

New England Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson #38 pushes down Carolina Panthers cornerback Lamar Jackson #31 during the first half of the pre-season game at Gillette Stadium. (Photo By Matt Stone/Boston Herald)

Schematically, the Patriots are also starting fresh with a new outside zone scheme that could coax a bounce-back year from Stevenson, who last year averaged a full rushing yard less than his breakout 2022 campaign. Stevenson ran behind zone-blocking in college, and it seems to suit his one-cut running style. Could he rumble to his first 100-yard game in almost two years?

Of note: the Bengals run defense ranked bottom-5 by yards allowed per carry and DVOA last year, and lost run-stopping defensive tackle D.J. Reader to free agency. His replacement, second-round rookie Kris Jenkins II, has been ruled out.

When the Patriots pass

Play-action, play-action, play-action.

Van Pelt’s offense is a big-play passing attack built off of run fakes. If the Patriots manage to keep the game close, expect Brissett to go deep off play-action to speedy third-year receiver Tyquan Thornton and free-agent addition K.J. Osborn. Thornton and Osborn took the majority of outside starting reps this summer around starting slot receiver DeMario Douglas, the team’s most trusted receiver.

The Pats also figure to lean heavily on tight ends Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper. But just like the run game, questions linger about the offensive line’s ability to pass-block, too.

New England Patriots tight end Austin Hooper #81 receives a catch from Jacoby Brissett during the first half of the NFL pre-season game against the Philadelphia Eagles at Gillette Stadium. (Photo By Matt Stone/Boston Herald)

Bengals defensive end Trey Hendrickson only amplifies that concern, coming off a 17-sack season. Hendrickson will likely command extra attention working against offensive tackles Vederian Lowe and Chukwuma Okorafor, perhaps with a double-team or chip from the tight ends. Handling Hendrickson will be paramount.

Not to mention, veteran defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo is one of the more creative blitz designers in the league, which has the Patriots’ attention.

“Those guys, they (blitz) — whether it’s the star, the nickel, the corner coming off the edge, the linebacker — they send people from everywhere, and they’re very fundamentally sound,” Mayo said this week. “We also have to be sound in our approach offensively.”

When the Bengals run

After trading longtime running back Joe Mixon, Cincinnati has opted to replace him with two players: Chase Brown and Zack Moss.

Between them, Brown is more of the home-run hitter, while Moss is a steady-eddy veteran. Expect the Bengals to test the interior of the Patriots’ defensive line without Christian Barmore. His replacement, Daniel Ekuale, is a 30-year-old, one-time pass-rushing specialist who started the Patriots’ preseason games and most 11-on-11 team periods in camp, but didn’t exactly receive a rave review from his position coach this week.

“He’s who we have. I think he’s had a decent camp, but s— or get off the pot, right?” said Patriots defensive line coach Jerry Montgomery. “It’s his time to shine, so take advantage of that opportunity.”

Behind Ekuale and longtime nose tackle Davon Godchaux, the Pats can reliably count on linebackers Jahlani Tavai and Anfernee Jennings. Last season, both ranked among the league’s best run-stoppers at inside and outside linebacker, respectively, per Pro Football Focus. Four-time captain Ja’Whaun Bentley will also man the middle again as a throwback, downhill run stuffer.

When the Bengals pass

Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow throws a pass vs. the New York Jets on Sept. 25 in East Rutherford, N.J. Burrow, who has 31 touchdown passes, presents a major problem for the Patriots. (Seth Wenig, AP)

Get your popcorn ready.

Patriots cornerback Christian Gonzalez could go head-to-head with Ja’Marr Chase, who called himself a gametime decision on Friday amid an ongoing contract dispute. Since entering the league as a top-5 pick in 2021, Chase has posted three straight 1,000-yard seasons, winning at all three levels and with speed, size and quickness. Gonzalez noted his smarts and route-running this week, too.

If he does play, Chase may be limited after hardly practicing this summer. That could leave Cincinnati without its two top receivers, after Tee Higgins was ruled doubtful with a new hamstring injury.

Still, triggering the Bengals’ passing attack is one of the best quarterbacks in the league: Joe Burrow. In his only career meeting with the Pats, a win in Dec. 2022, Burrow went 40-of-52 for for 375 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions. Coming off a season-ending wrist injury, he sounds better than ever.

“This is the best I’ve felt going into Week 1 since my rookie season,” Burrow told reporters this week.

Disguising coverage against Burrow and manufacturing pressure with good scheme will be crucial for the Pats, who lost their two best pass rushers this summer. Will new defensive coordinator DeMarcus Covington be up to the test?

Final pick

Bengals 20, Patriots 13