In the AFC East, there are three contenders and the Patriots.

The Pats are widely projected to again finish fourth in the division as they charge headlong into a rebuild. Meanwhile, at different sportsbooks the Bills, Dolphins and Jets are favored to win the AFC East. Buffalo has made the playoffs five straight years, Miami each of the last two, and the Jets are counting on a healthy Aaron Rodgers to carry them over the line in an all-in season.

So, who will win the division?

And who are the Patriots most likely to surprise?

The Herald’s Patriots beat writers preview the division.

Buffalo Bills

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) reacts after scoring a touchdown against the Kansas City Chiefs during the second quarter of an NFL AFC division playoff football game, Sunday, Jan. 21, 2024, in Orchard Park, N.Y. (AP Photo/Jeffrey T. Barnes)

Offense: Stripped of his two leading receivers, Josh Allen is being asked to do what several franchise quarterbacks have done before him: win with less.

This offseason, the Bills traded Pro Bowl wideout Stefon Diggs and lost fellow starter Gabriel Davis to free agency. To replace them, Buffalo signed a few complementary veterans and drafted second-round rookie Keon Coleman, a big-bodied outside target who has drawn rave reviews from offensive coordinator Joe Brady this summer.

Aside from Coleman, Allen has veterans Curtis Samuel, Marques Valdes-Scantling and Mack Hollins out wide, plus slot receiver Khalil Shakir (39 catches, 611 yards, two touchdowns last year). The Bills are also expected to feature tight ends Dalton Kincaid and Dalton Knox, possibly as part of their base personnel grouping. Up front, their downhill run game will again flow through 1,000-yard rusher James Cook and a beefy offensive line led by left tackle Dion Dawkins.

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Defense: Out with the old, in with the new.

The Bills cut ties with several veterans, including longtime safeties Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde, as part of a youth movement designed to get faster and cheaper. Their defense now revolves around inside linebacker Terrel Bernard, a firecracker who exploded for 143 tackles, 6.5 sacks and two interceptions last season during a breakout year. Bernard’s play will be critical to replacing newly injured Matt Milano (torn bicep), one of the last remaining pillars of Buffalo’s defense since head coach Sean McDermott took over in 2017.

Elsewhere, the Bills will again feature a solid pass rush, with edge rushers Gregory Rousseau and Von Miller surrounding defensive tackle Ed Oliver. Veteran cornerback Rasul Douglas is back, as is talented nickeback Taron Johnson. Questions persist regarding Buffalo’s other secondary spots and its depth overall.

Bottom line: Expectations for the Bills are lower than they’ve been in years. But that doesn’t mean Allen and Co. should be counted out just yet, even if they look ripe to split with the Patriots again after going 1-1 in their showdowns last year.

Miami Dolphins

Miami Dolphins wide receiver Tyreek Hill (10) celebrates a touchdown with quarterback Tua Tagovailoa during the second half of an NFL football game against the Buffalo Bills in Orchard Park, N.Y., Saturday, Dec. 17, 2022. (AP Photo/Adrian Kraus) (Adrian Kraus, AP)

Offense: It was a good offseason to be a star player on the Dolphins’ offense. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa signed a four-year, $212.4 million contract and wide receivers Jaylen Waddle (three years, $84.75 million) and Tyreek Hill (three years, $90 million) got new deals, as well.

The Dolphins also brought on Odell Beckham Jr. to be their third wide receiver. At this point in his career, OBJ has a bigger name than impact, and he remains on the PUP list with an undisclosed injury he’s been nursing all summer.

The Dolphins are expected to be high-powered once again on offense with the help of speedy running backs Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane with head coach Mike McDaniel calling plays.

Defense: It’s a new era on defense as McDaniels replaced legendary coordinator Vic Fangio after just one year with Anthony Weaver and a mostly new staff.

General manager Chris Grier had to clear salary cap space and in doing so lost defensive tackle Christian Wilkins, cornerback Xavien Howard and linebacker Jerome Baker.

The Dolphins did a pretty good job of replacing those guys on paper with Calais Campbell, Kendall Fuller and Jordyn Brooks.

Bottom line: The Bills are expected to win the division, but the Dolphins will certainly be competitive. Their over/under win total is 9.5.

New England Patriots

New England Patriots Jacoby Brissett gets ready to throw during the first half of the NFL pre-season game against the Philadelphia Eagles at Gillette Stadium. (Photo By Matt Stone/Boston Herald)

Offense: A new era, a new coaching staff, a new quarterback.

Not much is set in stone for the Patriots’ new offense under Alex Van Pelt, except Jerod Mayo has declared they intend to be a run-focused team. That puts a lot on the shoulders of veteran running backs Rhamondre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson, plus an offensive line that spent much of the summer shuffling players around. In the passing game, DeMario Douglas was the team’s most efficient and explosive target, while all the quarterbacks leaned heavily on tight ends Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper.

And don’t forget about rookie receivers Ja’Lynn Polk and Javon Baker. Polk earned starting reps at the end of training camp and should see plenty of opportunity so long as he’s competing with veterans like K.J. Osborn and Tyquan Thornton.

Defense: After trading Matthew Judon, and losing defensive tackle Christian Barmore indefinitely to blood clots, the Patriots are counting heavily on their lone blue-chip talent left — Christian Gonzalez — to find his old form.

In four games last season, Gonzalez shadowed opposing No. 1 receivers and won Defensive Rookie of the Month in September. The former first-round pick is back to health, and will have a strong safety tandem next to him in the secondary with Kyle Dugger and Jabrill Peppers. Up front, the Patriots need 2023 second-rounder Keion White to break out as a pass rusher after he tallied a single sack last season, while veterans Davon Godchaux, Ja’Whaun Bentley and Jahlani Tavai hold down what should be a sturdy middle of the defense.

Bottom line: The talent is the talent, meaning this should be a tough season in Foxboro. The good news: the Patriots are aiming for 2025 and beyond, and they’re well-positioned to continue rebuilding, especially if they clinch another top-5 pick.

New York Jets

New York Jets cornerback Sauce Gardner during an NFL football game against the Pittsburgh Steelers at Acrisure Stadium, Sunday, Oct. 2, 2022 in Pittsburgh, Penn. (Winslow Townson/AP Images for Panini) (Winslow Townson, AP)Offense: The Jets are hoping quarterback Aaron Rodgers lasts more than four plays before suffering a season-ending injury this year.

On paper, the Jets should be formidable this season with Rodgers under center throwing to Garrett Wilson and Mike Williams, handing off to Breece Hall and being protected by Tyron Smith, John Simpson, Joe Tippman, Alijah Vera-Tucker and Morgan Moses.

And you know that if one of those offensive linemen goes down, Rodgers’ buddy David Bakhtiari, still a free agent, is just a phone call away.

The only thing that can bring this unit down is an injury to Rodgers or offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett’s playcalling.

Defense: Defensively, the Jets’ secondary should have no problem making plays with one of the league’s most consistent cornerback groups headlined by Sauce Gardner but also featuring D.J. Reed and Michael Carter II.

Defensive tackle Quinnen Williams is one of the league’s best, but the Jets need to figure out their situation on the edge, where Haason Reddick continues to hold out. If Reddick doesn’t play, the Jets needs breakout campaigns from young pass rushers Jermaine Johnson and Will McDonald.

Bottom line: The Jets, like the Dolphins, have an over/under win total of 9.5 wins. It’s a three-man race between the Bills, Dolphins and Jets for the AFC East crown. If Rodgers can get back to his MVP-caliber ways, the Jets could take this thing.