By Panos Mourdoukoutas

Stocks declined for a fourth consecutive week as rising oil prices and higher Treasury yields weighed on investor sentiment and reduced appetite for risky assets.

The downturn came as continued disruptions to Middle East energy supplies pushed oil prices higher, fueling inflation fears.

At the same time, signs of a weakening labor market and the ongoing U.S.–Israel conflict with Iran complicated the Federal Reserve’s ability to provide clear guidance on monetary policy, adding further pressure on equities.

For the week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 2.11 percent to 45,577, closing at its weekly low. The S&P 500 dropped by 1.9 percent to 6,506, also closing near its weekly low. The Nasdaq Composite declined by 2.07 percent, while the Russell 2000 fell by 1.68 percent.

Market volatility eased earlier in the week but picked up toward the end, driven in part by the “triple witching,” the simultaneous expiration of stock options, stock index options, and stock index futures. The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index closed at 26.78, down by 1.51 percent for the week.

Stocks began the week higher on March 16 amid bargain hunting following the prior week’s sell-off, even as West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures approached the $100 mark in early trading.

Prices later reversed, settling 3.2 percent lower for the day on hopes of easing tensions in the Iran conflict.

“Due to fears of oil-induced inflation and a potential global slowdown, stocks are currently inversely correlated with oil prices,” Richard Saperstein, chief investment officer at Treasury Partners, told The Epoch Times.

He said this connection between stocks and oil prices is likely to be temporary and provides investors with an opportunity to increase “selective stock exposure” at favorable valuations.

“As hostilities will ease, oil prices should move lower, and stocks will then refocus on the favorable pre-hostility investment climate,” Saperstein said.

The pullback in oil prices supported equities throughout the session.

Treasury yields also eased, with the 10-year yield falling to 4.24 percent on March 16 after rising by 15 basis points to a more than four-week high the previous week.

By the market close, major indexes posted solid gains. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 rose by 1.22 percent and 1.01 percent, respectively, supported in part by positive developments from Nvidia’s GTC conference. The Dow and Russell 2000 gained by 0.83 percent and 0.94 percent, respectively.

Gains extended into March 17, led by the Russell 2000 and the Nasdaq, which rose by 0.66 percent and 0.47 percent, respectively. The S&P 500 and Dow posted smaller increases of 0.25 percent and 0.10 percent, respectively.

The gains in stocks came despite a rebound in oil prices, with West Texas Intermediate crude rising by 1 percent to $94.40 per barrel, recovering from a 5.3 percent drop the previous day.

Trading volume remained light ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

“The Fed is in a bind. Slower growth and a softer labor market would normally argue for easing monetary policy. But inflation remains sticky, while surging oil prices add another layer of uncertainty to the outlook. Complicating matters further, the next Fed chair will face continued pressure from the White House to lower interest rates,” Bret Kenwell, a U.S. investment analyst at eToro, told The Epoch Times.

On March 18, wholesale inflation price data came in above expectations ahead of the Federal Reserve’s rate decision announcement. The Producer Price Index rose 3.4 percent annually, exceeding forecasts of 2.9 percent. Core producer prices increased 3.9 percent, the largest gain in three years.

The data, combined with recent weaker employment figures, renewed concerns about stagflation, complicating the central bank’s dual mandate of achieving price stability and maximum employment.

The Federal Reserve held its benchmark rate unchanged at a target range of 3.5 to 3.75 percent.

“The Federal Reserve left rates unchanged and signaled the fog of war is making it harder to know what’s next for the U.S. economy,” Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, told The Epoch Times.

“Fed leaders currently predict an inflation shock from the war that will keep inflation elevated through the end of the year and make only one rate cut likely, but they are not forecasting stagflation. Fed leaders raised their GDP growth forecast for 2026 to 2.4 percent.”

“The Fed isn’t panicking about the Iran war yet, but the higher inflation estimate shows they’re ready to get more hawkish if needed. Policymakers are watching both sides of the mandate, but price stability is getting more important,” said David Russell, global head of market strategy at TradeStation.

Markets reacted negatively, with major indexes closing sharply lower. The Russell 2000 and Dow fell by 1.64 percent and 1.63 percent, respectively. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq dropped by 1.36 percent and 1.46 percent, respectively.

Selling pressure continued into the morning of March 19 as investors moved away from risk assets, including stocks, gold, silver, and bitcoin.

“Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting provided little comfort to an already jittery market, as it’s clear that the oil-driven spike, which is likely a temporary shock, is causing the central bank to delay any rate cut plans. That’s a disappointment for a market that earlier this year was pricing in a much more dovish central bank,” Dennis Follmer, chief investment officer at Montis Financial, told The Epoch Times.

Losses moderated later in the day. The Dow declined by 0.44 percent, while the Russell 2000 rose by 0.68 percent. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq posted modest losses of 0.27 percent and 0.28 percent, respectively.

Selling resumed on March 20, amplified by the “triple witching” and escalating geopolitical tensions, which pushed oil prices and bond yields higher. The 10-year Treasury note ended with a yield of 4.39 percent, getting closer to last year’s high of 4.59 percent.

David Laut, chief investment officer at Kerux Financial, told The Epoch Times that the market may not have reached its bottom and is still in the process of pricing in the Middle East conflict and the oil price outlook, as stocks have remained in negative territory year to date and hit new 2026 lows this week.

“Friday’s quadruple witching tends to bring about increased intra-day volatility, which may be exacerbated this time around as this stock market has already been on edge for weeks heading into Friday, given uncertainty from the Middle East conflict and what higher oil prices may mean for consumer spending and earnings,” he said.