Red Sox roster projection: Who will emerge in cutthroat rotation battle?

Coming off a disappointing three-year stretch, the Red Sox took an important step forward last season, making the playoffs for the first time since 2021. Despite losing in the American League Wild Card Series to the Yankees, the club went into the offseason with high hopes that it could keep the momentum going and potentially compete for a World Series in 2026.

Whatever your thoughts about this winter, it has certainly been an active one.

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Since the offseason began chief baseball officer Craig Breslow has swung a league-high 12 trades, completely revamping the club’s pitching staff while clearing out a number of depth pieces who no longer factored in to the club’s future. The Red Sox also didn’t sign a free agent until January, losing out on top target Alex Bregman before pivoting to right-hander Ranger Suarez.

Now the Red Sox enter the new season with arguably the best starting rotation in baseball, but also a lot of unanswered questions about how the rest of the roster will fit together.

With pitchers and catchers set to report Tuesday, the Red Sox still need another infield bat and have questions surrounding their disjointed outfield picture. The club is also overflowing with depth starters while remaining alarmingly short on traditional relievers.

Amid that uncertainty, the only thing we can say for sure is that a lot will change between now and Opening Day. But for now, here’s our first crack at projecting the Red Sox’s 26-man roster.

Garrett Crochet will lead a Red Sox rotation that should rank among the best in MLB. (AP Photo/Frank Franklin II)

Starting rotation

MLB: Garrett Crochet (L), Ranger Suarez (L), Sonny Gray, Brayan Bello, Johan Oviedo

MiLB depth: Connelly Early (L), Payton Tolle (L), Kyle Harrison (L), Shane Drohan (L), Tyler Uberstine, Jake Bennett (L)

60-day IL: Tanner Houck

Traded: Patrick Sandoval (L)

The first four spots in the rotation should be locked in. Garrett Crochet will almost certainly be the Opening Day starter, followed by Ranger Suarez, Sonny Gray and Brayan Bello in some order.

But the last rotation spot will be the most hotly contested job in all of camp.

In all likelihood there are six starters who have a realistic shot of opening the season in the rotation, those being Johan Oviedo, Kutter Crawford, Patrick Sandoval, Kyle Harrison, Connelly Early and Payton Tolle. Barring an exceptional showing in camp, Early, Tolle and Harrison will most likely start in Triple-A, leaving Oviedo, Crawford and Sandoval as the favorites.

For our purposes we’ll pencil in Oviedo as the No. 5 starter. The Red Sox gave up a significant asset in top outfield prospect Jhostynxon Garcia to get him and he pitched well down the stretch after returning from Tommy John surgery last summer.

The big question for the Red Sox is what they’ll do with the two veterans who don’t make the cut.

One option is rolling with a six-man rotation, which would keep Crawford or Sandoval in their preferred role while building in extra rest for the others. But a six-man rotation usually works better in theory than in practice, and with an off day in each of the first four weeks of the season, rest isn’t going to be a concern out of the gate.

That being the case, the more likely scenario is the odd men out would move to the bullpen, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if Sandoval wound up being traded instead.

Sandoval has little experience as a reliever and has pitched exclusively as a starter since 2022. He is also slated to earn just over $9.1 million in 2026, which according to Red Sox Payroll on X/Twitter ranks 10th on the team. That’s a sizable investment in a pitcher who projects as a back-of-the-rotation arm and who is coming off an entire year lost to Tommy John surgery.

But Sandoval has pitched well before, posting a 2.91 ERA in 148 2/3 innings for the Angels back in 2022, so it stands to reason there should be interest if Craig Breslow opts to make him available.

With Crawford better suited for bullpen duty and Early and Tolle waiting in the wings, don’t be surprised if such a deal comes together before Opening Day. Of course, it could only take an injury or two to completely change the picture, so Sandoval might still have a chance to suit up for the Red Sox after rehabbing with the club all last year.

Garrett Whitlock is coming off a brilliant season pitching out of the Red Sox bullpen. (AP Photo/Charles Krupa)

Bullpen

MLB: Aroldis Chapman (L), Garrett Whitlock, Justin Slaten, Greg Weissert, Zack Kelly, Jovani Moran (L), Ryan Watson, Kutter Crawford

MiLB depth: Tyler Samaniego (L)

As loaded as the Red Sox are with starting pitching depth, the bullpen is shockingly light on bodies. Right now the club only has eight traditional relievers on the 40-man roster, leaving hardly any depth should an injury arise between now and Opening Day.

Assuming Crawford or another starter candidate fills the long-relief role, the rest of the bullpen looks practically set. Aroldis Chapman will return as the closer, Garrett Whitlock as the top set-up man, Justin Slaten, Greg Weissert and Zack Kelly have clear paths as mid-leverage options, Jovani Moran is the favorite to be the lone non-closer left-hander and Ryan Watson should be a lock as a Rule 5 pick.

That would leave rookie lefty Tyler Samaniego, who has yet to appear in a big league game, as the only reliever currently on the 40-man roster on the outside looking in.

Expect the Red Sox to add to this group in the coming weeks. The club could use another lefty option to compete with Moran and Samaniego for a job, and a number of non-roster invitees will likely get a shot to make the team as well.

Some non-roster relievers to watch on the outset of camp include lefty Alec Gamboa, who is coming off a strong season in Korea, as well as righty Kyle Keller, who reportedly signed with the Red Sox on a minor league deal earlier this week after a solid four-year run in Japan.

Carlos Narvaez enters his second full season in the majors as the clear favorite to serve as Boston’s starting catcher. (AP Photo/Paul Beaty)

Catcher

MLB: Carlos Narvaez, Connor Wong

MiLB depth: Mickey Gasper, Matt Thaiss, Jason Delay, Nate Baez, Nathan Hickey, Ronald Rosario

The Red Sox have done a lot to bolster their organizational depth at catcher this winter, but the big league picture remains unchanged. Barring any unexpected developments Carlos Narvaez will enter the season as the starter and Connor Wong will remain his primary backup.

Mickey Gasper is effectively third on the depth chart, though he’ll be used all over the field as well, and Matt Thaiss, Jason Delay, Nate Baez, Nathan Hickey and Ronald Rosario are all non-roster invitees who will be tasked with shouldering the load throughout the spring.

Red Sox shortstop Trevor Story is expected to anchor an infield group that still has a lot of question marks. (Nancy Lane/Boston Herald)

Infielders

MLB: Willson Contreras (1B), Isiah Kiner-Falefa (2B), Trevor Story (SS), Marcelo Mayer (3B), Romy Gonzalez (Util.), Nate Eaton (Util.)

MiLB depth: Kristian Campbell, David Hamilton, Nick Sogard, Gasper, Tsung-Che Cheng, Brendan Rodgers

15-day IL: Triston Casas (1B/DH)

The Red Sox infield picture remains incomplete.

All offseason Craig Breslow has spoken about the need to add an impact bat, preferably an infielder who can hit for power from the right side. The club did bring in one player who fits that profile, acquiring Willson Contreras in a deal with the St. Louis Cardinals, but it’s clear the Red Sox still need at least one more who can round out the lineup.

Until that happens, the club will have to make do with what it has.

Contreras and Trevor Story are obvious locks to start, and the second and third base jobs will presumably go to some combination of Romy Gonzalez, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Marcelo Mayer or Kristian Campbell. My guess at the outset is that Mayer will start at third, one of Kiner-Falefa or Gonzalez will start at second, the other will serve as a utility player off the bench and Campbell will start the season in Triple-A, where he can get regular playing time.

That would leave one bench spot up for grabs, and given the way club officials have spoken about him this offseason it would appear Nate Eaton has the inside track over David Hamilton, Nick Sogard, Gasper, recent waiver pickup Tsung-Che Cheng and Brendan Rodgers, a former Gold Glove winner who has reportedly signed with Boston on a minor league deal.

Red Sox outfielder Roman Anthony will be looking to take a big step forward in his first full season as a big leaguer. (Matt Stone/Boston Herald)

Outfielders

MLB: Roman Anthony (LF), Ceddanne Rafaela (CF), Wilyer Abreu (RF), Jarren Duran (OF), Masataka Yoshida (DH)

MiLB depth: Campbell, Braiden Ward

The Red Sox outfield picture is weird.

Right now the club has more starting-caliber outfielders than it can reasonably accommodate. The only way Anthony, Rafaela, Abreu, Duran and Yoshida can all take the field at once is by having Rafaela play second, something the club understandably wants to avoid. Four of those five also bat lefty, so there aren’t any sensible platoon options to help.

On the flip side, the Red Sox also have hardly any outfield depth behind those five who are well suited for a big league bench job. Campbell is arguably the best choice, but at this stage in his career he needs regular playing time and would be better off starting in Worcester than filling a Rob Refsnyder-type role off the bench in Boston.

Gonzalez and Eaton can both play in the outfield too, so it’s not like the club doesn’t have any reserve outfielders it can call upon, but if one of the five “starters” is taking up a bench spot, that leaves the Red Sox with one fewer reserve available for utility duty. And after them, there aren’t any other outfielders currently on the 40-man roster. Braiden Ward, a non-roster invitee acquired in the Brennan Bernardino trade this winter, is probably the next man up.

Expect a shakeup here between now and Opening Day. Maybe the long-hypothesized Duran or Abreu trade comes to fruition, or perhaps the club will find a taker for Yoshida. Even if the Red Sox don’t move one of their main guys, adding a proper replacement for Refsnyder as the right-handed bench outfielder would be a good idea.

One way or another, the Red Sox have a lot to figure out over the next month and a half.

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