Callahan: The Patriots will need Josh McDaniels’ best to beat the Texans

FOXBORO — Distilling this magical season into the simplest story possible, Mike Vrabel got the Patriots started.

Drake Maye carried them here.

Now, Josh McDaniels must push them forward.

In the Wild Card round, the Pats beat the Chargers on the shoulders of their defense, an option available to them again this Sunday, albeit an unlikely one given last weekend was the first time they kept an opponent under 10 points all season.

Even against a hellacious Houston defense, the Patriots’ shortest path to victory is to ask Maye to carry them yet again. But to ace the toughest test of his career, he will need protection. He will need an adequate run game. He will need McDaniels to be the offensive coordinator he’s been most of this season — if not even better.

“I think (McDaniels), more than any coordinator I’ve played for, understands our strengths, and understands the defense’s strengths, as well,” Pats center Garrett Bradbury told me. “And I just feel like he does a great job of putting us in a position to succeed, whether it’s a position group or the offense as a whole. He knows where the problems are, and how we can solve them.”

The problem the Texans defense poses isn’t like the one the Chargers presented last weekend, when they held the Patriots to 16 points, or the Bills last month when they left Foxboro with a win. Their defenses tried to confuse Maye with disguise, and at times succeeded. Houston’s coaching staff, however, could email its game plan tomorrow and still win because they orhcestrate maybe the simplest scheme in the league; a play style that sets the terms of engagement to their opponents before kickoff.

Every Houston foe knows how it will be defended, and still can’t find its way out of the box built around them because of the Texans’ talent. That box works like this: the Texans play a four-down front style that majors in a few zone coverages, sprinkles in some man-to-man and a blitz here or there. They’re immovable against the run. Their cornerstones are edge rushers Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter, who combined for 27 sacks this season and power an elite pass rush that allows for schematic simplicity behind them.

Inside linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair and safety Jalen Pitre patrol the middle, hunting for turnovers and hitting anything that moves. Both had cases to be All-Pros this year, as Anderson was.

New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye is sacked by Houston Texans defensive end Will Anderson Jr. (51) during an NFL game on Sunday, Oct. 13, 2024 in Foxboro. (AP Photo/Charles Krupa)

“Those guys, especially the linebacker level, they’re going to try to take your head off,” Maye said. “And I respect them for it. They do it at a really high level.”

Outside, cornerbacks Derek Stingley Jr. and Kamari Lassiter caught eight interceptions during the regular season. More often than not, the Texans keep eyes on the quarterback in zone coverage, looking to jump throws and prevent scrambles.

As for the Patriots, McDaniels’ system is predicated on the idea of having an answer to every defense ever designed. The idea being, so long as Maye, Bradbury and/or the receivers read the defense correctly, they can overcome any blitz or coverage by checking to the right play or adjusting post-snap. It’s a way to nullify a talent deficit — like the one they will see Sunday against a host of Texans Pro Bowlers and All-Pros — and combat increasingly complex defenses with layer upon layer of offensive options.

But on Wednesday, Bradbury indicated the Pats plan to do the opposite and meet simple with simple, something Maye reiterated after practice.

“If the defense is gonna be predictable, and they have confidence in what they do, then we’re gonna do the same thing and just play with confidence,” Bradbury said in the locker room. “We’re gonna execute the plays, and there might be some dirty four or five-yard runs, but we’re gonna commit to it.”

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“Scheme-wise, just do things that we’re good at and try to find a way every week to scheme something up if we see it,” Maye said. “But at the same time, just try to stay ahead of the chains and know what type of game it is.”

Still, McDaniels will need a Plan B.

The Patriots might seize on the times Anderson and Hunter are catching a breather by calling deep pass plays, just as they did versus Myles Garrett and an elite Browns pass rush earlier this year (another defense that runs a simple scheme). The Texans can be had on play-action. And the Patriots’ recent rushing success in jumbo packages with six offensive lineman — from which they’ve average 8.2 yards per carry since the bye week — feels encouraging.

But Houston’s defense ranks where it ranks because it has dismantled game plans, hopes and dreams all season. By repeating the same handful of calls, the Texans understand where their weak points are, and how opponents will attack them, then wait and swarm to the ball. And that’s if they haven’t crushed the quarterback first.

For this magical season to continue, the Patriots must stress their base plays and cleverest counters. They must time their best calls at the best times. And there’s a decent chance that might not be enough Sunday, especially if Maye throws an interception or suffers a strip sack early on.

In that case, Maye will need a pick-me-up from the coach who’se guided him here and, more than any other coach standing on the sideline Sunday, can guide these Pats forward.

Welcome back to the divisional round, Josh.

No pressure.

 

 

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