Tom Mulherin’s high school hockey crystal ball

This truly is a strange column.

Don’t get us wrong – winning predictions are great. Fantastic, even. It’s equally as good of a feeling when the predicted winners come true, as it is a weird feeling to prefer that the team lost in a one-goal thriller. “Careful what you wish for,” and all that is certainly some writing on the wall, but the crystal ball is not about high win percentages. We really want our games of the week to be tight, with significant implications.

So, even though last week’s 9-8-1 mark brought the season’s win percentage below .700 for the first time, the 15 games decided by two goals or less – out of the 18 selected – makes it the best week of the year yet.

Or maybe it’s just what we tell ourselves to make it seem better.

Regardless, it was the kind of parity-fueled week we’ve been expecting to finally hit in Hockeyland. For the boys, St. John’s of Shrewsbury put an exclamation point on its start to Catholic Conference play (see below). Arlington Catholic is on a roll, beating Archbishop Williams. Framingham earned a huge win over Weymouth. Hingham was shut down by Catholic Memorial before edging Arlington, which rolled past a Reading group that had tied St. John’s Prep. Nauset and Hanover gave a thrilling preview of what makes the Div. 3 title race exciting.

And for the girls, all but one game selected was decided by two or less. Signature wins between Div. 2 threats from Westwood (over Duxbury) and King Philip (over Medfield) stood out.

Here’s to hopefully another big week of predicting cutthroat play in meaningful matchups:

LAST WEEK’S RECORD: 9-8-1

OVERALL RECORD: 40-16-6 (.694)

AVERAGE MARGIN: 2.16 goal differential

**WINNERS in ALL-CAPS**

BOYS

WEDNESDAY

ST. JOHN’S (S) at Malden Catholic, 5 p.m. – Since an upset loss to Arlington Catholic, St. John’s (7-2) has won six straight, including signature victories over Catholic Memorial, St. John’s Prep and Xaverian. Malden Catholic is the last team left for a perfect start in Catholic Conference play. The Lancers (3-5-1) have some lopsided losses to their name, but a tie against Pope Francis and a win over BC High has shown they can rise up big.

SANDWICH at Martha’s Vineyard, 5 p.m. – The top two teams in the MIAA’s first set of Div. 4 power rankings square off for the first time. Martha’s Vineyard’s (6-3) hot start has cooled off a bit, which Sandwich (6-3) could take advantage of.

MILTON at Needham, 6 p.m. – Needham (4-2-2) is 4-1 since a 0-1-2 start, with its only loss in that stretch coming in overtime to red-hot Arlington Catholic. Big opportunity for a statement showing for the Rockets, but Milton (6-1) is perfect outside of a lopsided loss to Div. 2 juggernaut Canton.

READING at Winchester, 7:45 p.m. – Two Middlesex League Liberty contenders looking to rebound. Reading (5-1-1) just lost its first game to Arlington, 4-0. Winchester (4-3) has dropped two straight since beating Arlington, including a 7-1 rout against Hingham. Should be as high-charged of a league battle as there is.

THURSDAY

Essex Tech at SHAWSHEEN, 7:10 p.m. – Essex Tech (7-2-1) has lit up a three-game win streak with 22 goals since it was shut out by Chelmsford. Shawsheen (7-1-1) hasn’t been held under three goals once. Could have some fireworks in a Div. 3 top-10 matchup to look out for.

SATURDAY

HANOVER at Scituate, 1 p.m. – It took defending Div. 3 state champion Nauset – in overtime – for someone to finally beat Hanover (8-1) within a sensational start. The Hawks get fellow Div. 3 contender Scituate (6-3-1) twice in a week’s span, both ranking in the MIAA’s top-four in the first set of power rankings.

ARCHBISHOP WILLIAMS at Pope Francis, 2 p.m. – It’s been a rocky stretch for Pope Francis (5-4-2) since the Pete Frates Winter Classic, winning just one of its last four games. Counting on the increased parity of Div. 1 to shine through here for a true threat in Archbishop Williams (5-4), which edged the St. Mary’s of Lynn team the Cardinals just lost 7-3 to at home. A Pope Francis win would be a meaningful rebound.

Waltham at TEWKSBURY, 6:20 p.m. – Nobody is off to more of a scorching start than Tewksbury (7-0), which has six straight shutouts and 48 goals in seven games. Waltham (9-0) is right there when it comes to dominant teams. Biggest test yet for both MVC/DCL foes.

SUNDAY

Catholic Conference Showcase (at Canton Ice House), 12:30 p.m., 1 p.m., 2:45 p.m. – Sparing ourselves from the cutthroat parity of the Catholic Conference here without making predictions, but this is always a great day with all six teams in the same barn after what will be a big week of conference play. Xaverian (8-1) challenges defending state champion Catholic Memorial (8-1-1) in the first game, BC High (4-4) and St. John’s of Shrewsbury battle in the other rink at 1 p.m., and St. John’s Prep (4-2-2) gets Malden Catholic at 2:45 p.m. Xaverian and St. John’s Prep play Wednesday, as do historic rivals CM and BC High.

GIRLS

WEDNESDAY

Boston Latin at BILLERICA/CHELMSFORD, 5 p.m. – Boston Latin (4-5-1) was Billerica/Chelmsford’s (4-2-2) peskiest thorn last year, knocking it out in the first round of the Div. 1 state tournament as the 22-seed. A lot of players return from that game on both sides, and this is the first matchup between the two since. Plenty of juice here.

Malden Catholic at ST. MARY’S (L), 5 p.m. – It’s been a near-perfect start for St. Mary’s (6-0-1) coming off a rebuild, at least from a record perspective. It has a huge week of tilts versus Div. 1 title contenders ahead of it, facing Malden Catholic here before reigning state finalist Bishop Stang on Saturday. A win here for either would be significant momentum within gauntlets of schedules, as the Lancers (5-3) face Duxbury on Saturday.

Archbishop Williams at NDA HINGHAM, 5:50 p.m. – Already a rematch from the Tenney Cup, which NDA (5-0-3) took 3-1 in late December. Nobody has been able to beat the Cougars yet, and they have the tools to get the job done again. But Archies (4-5) is far from an easy bout, and it looks to snap out of a funk and get back on the path of a title threat.

DUXBURY at Hingham, 6 p.m. – A Patriot League matchup to circle twice every year. Duxbury (7-3-1) just snapped out of a small skid, after topping the Milton powerhouse that handed Hingham (8-1-1) its only loss in the Tenney Cup. The Harborwomen also beat the Westwood contender that edged the Dragons. Both teams have their work cut out for them.

SANDWICH at Dennis-Yarmouth, 6 p.m. – Dennis-Yarmouth (5-3-1) took the season opener over Sandwich in the Judy Gormley cup and has been impressive since. Few have been as harshly tested as the Blue Knights (3-6) in the weeks since, though, and could gain some much-needed momentum in what would be a third win in four games.

SATURDAY

Winchester at BELMONT, 1 p.m. – The Middlesex League Liberty title race is off to a roaring start, with Belmont (5-2-2), Reading (5-0-2), Winchester (4-4) and Woburn (5-3) each showing the kind of level play and grittiness that makes the league one of the state’s tightest. Winchester just missing the scoring touch to turn some of its tight losses into wins. It could wear Belmont down, but the Marauders have hit a groove with a three-game win streak.

Reading at WOBURN, 2 p.m. – See above. Feels like exactly the kind of game that could be the Rockets’ first loss if it can best Winchester on Wednesday, almost simply for the sake of parity. Both Reading and Woburn have played strong in big matchups.

ARLINGTON CATHOLIC at Natick, 7:20 p.m. – Across their four losses this year, Arlington Catholic (2-4-2) has been outscored by a total of five goals. In eight games, it’s allowed more than two just once – a 3-3 tie with St. Mary’s in its last game. The Cougars have the defense to keep pace with stingy Natick (7-2) and could edge out a signature nonleague win – though the RedHawks could very well put up a shutout, too.

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