Patriots mailbag: Defense must replicate dominant performance to advance

The Patriots are deep in preparations for Sunday’s 3 p.m. divisional-round playoff game against the Texans at Gillette Stadium.

Our readers have questions about the matchup, Christian Gonzalez’s health and what to expect out of Drake Maye.

Let’s answer them in our weekly mailbag.

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@DDeFlip8: Gonzo gonzo gonzo.. any update? What are his chances to play? If he’s out do we switch to a mainly cover defense and abandon man? Who’s more important for their team to have Gonzo or Nico for the Texans ?

Both the Patriots and Texans have major injury question marks heading into this week’s matchup. Gonzalez is in concussion protocol after exiting Sunday’s wild-card round win over the Chargers with a head injury.

The player he would most likely match up against in shadowing situations, Texans wide receiver Nico Collins, is also in concussion protocol after suffering a head injury in Monday night’s win over the Steelers.

Passing through concussion protocol is a five-step process, and losing a day, like Collins has in a short week, is significant.

We’ll know much more about both of their situations on Wednesday, when we’ll see if they’re able to practice in non-contact jerseys. If Gonzalez is able to get on the field in a red non-contact jersey Wednesday, then he has a shot to play.

Head coach Mike Vrabel was asked about Gonzalez twice on Monday.

“We’ll go through whatever the steps are that would require him to pass through whatever he needs to do,” Vrabel said on WEEI. “So without having seen him today, I can’t sit here and speculate. I just know that they wouldn’t let him go back in the game.”

Vrabel added in his press conference: “I would say that he would be in the protocol. How long that lasts, I don’t know, but when you don’t return to the game, when they won’t let you go back in the game, that would put him in the protocol. So, wherever that goes, that goes. … Hopefully, we’ll get him back.”

Vrabel sounded hopeful, but concussions can obviously be tricky, and the team won’t want to rush him back, even in a playoff situation.

The Patriots might lean a little more heavily into zone if Gonzalez can’t play. And as for who’s more important, I might say Collins. That’s nothing against Gonzalez, but Texans QB C.J. Stroud really struggled Monday night against the Steelers. He needs all the help he can get.

If Gonzalez can’t play, then Charles Woods would likely elevate into a starting role. If Collins can’t play, then Christian Kirk, Jayden Higgins and Xavier Hutchinson would likely all see their roles increase.

@jpftw: What needs to happen for a Patriots win/Texans win? In those scenarios, what went wrong/right for us?

This game really comes down to the gap between Drake Maye and Stroud at quarterback and the gap between the Texans’ defense and the Patriots’ defense, and which is bigger.

Maye is a better quarterback than Stroud. The Texans’ defense is better than the Patriots’ defense.

If the Patriots’ defense can continue to play like they did against the Chargers, exploiting a questionable Texans offensive line, forcing mistakes out of Stroud, playing sticky coverage against their wide receivers and making them one-dimensional by stopping running back Woody Marks, then the Patriots will likely win.

But that hasn’t been the Patriots’ defense that we’ve seen all season.

So, if they can’t, then Maye needs to elevate his game even higher against a Texans defense that makes opposing quarterbacks play worse than Cam Ward or J.J. McCarthy. Their EPA (expected points added) per pass this season ranked league-lowest at -0.26. Ward ranked last among qualified QBs with a -0.23 EPA per play. Maye led the league at +0.25. The Texans only allowed a positive EPA per play once this season, and that came Week 1 against the Rams.

Fortunately for the Patriots, Maye has been PFF’s eighth-highest graded QB under pressure this season. Stroud, meanwhile, ranks 33rd out of 41 QBs. So, getting pressure on the Texans QB is paramount.

@tre_fal: Is this game where the Patriots can run the ball right at the Texans to mitigate the pass rush?

No, not exactly. The Texans’ run defense isn’t as good as their pass defense, but they still rank 11th in EPA per rush. They’ve only allowed a positive EPA per rush in six games this season.

That being said, expect the Patriots to come out and run the ball. Rhamondre Stevenson has been incredible for the last five weeks, and rookie TreVeyon Henderson can rip off a big play at any moment.

@ReallJayr: Why not get your speed guys more involved like Henderson or Kyle Williams?

I don’t think it was for a lack of effort. Henderson carried the ball nine times in Sunday’s win. He just didn’t do much with his opportunities. Williams played 21 snaps and caught one 7-yard pass.

There are other players on offense who have proven more trustworthy than Williams, so you don’t want him to cut into their snaps too heavily.

@wil_adv: Hi Doug. Against the Chargers, the Patriots’ defense seemed suffocating, unlike anything I’ve seen in the regular season. Is this a postseason effect? ​​Thanks for the great work. Wilson

Hey Wilson, I think it’s a combination of different things.

First, it was absolutely massive to get Milton Williams, Robert Spillane and Harold Landry III back in a two-week span. Second, the Chargers’ porous offensive line played a massive role in how the Patriots were able to play. Third, the Patriots made some stylistic changes, blitzing the Chargers heavily once they were forced to be a one-dimensional passing team.

Can they do it again? Maybe. They can’t be predictable, but the Patriots’ pass rush proved they can get home when blitzing last week, and Stroud doesn’t fare well when blitzed.

@midwestgirl1987: Do you think that Tonga has a chance to play this Sunday?

He was spotted on Friday without pads but doing some running. So, that appeared to be a good sign for his injured foot.

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