Welcome to the postseason.

The Patriots are set to play their first home playoff game in six years Sunday at 8 p.m. ET. The postseason matchup at Gillette Stadium will be the Patriots’ first playoff game overall since the 2021 season, when they went one-and-done with a wild-card round loss to the Bills on the road.

This year’s squad is set up for more success, but their first-round matchup with the Chargers won’t be easy. The Chargers have a franchise quarterback in Justin Herbert, a playoff-tested head coach in Jim Harbaugh and one of the NFL’s best defenses.

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The Patriots, meanwhile, have a new identity under head coach Mike Vrabel, an MVP candidate in Drake Maye and a defense returning two key starters.

Here are 10 things we’re watching Sunday night.

• Will the Patriots’ approach work? All week, players have been preaching not to “change the macaroni and cheese.” What does that mean? Don’t change the recipe just because it’s the playoffs. The Patriots want to prepare the same for Sunday night’s game as they have all season, which makes sense, because the team is 14-3 and the No. 2 seed in the AFC. The playoffs are a different animal, however, and most of the Patriots’ roster is making their postseason debuts. Players seem locked in this week, and they face a tough, but winnable matchup.

• Former Patriots head coach Bill Belichick said this week that the Pats have to get out to a hot start against the Chargers. Much was made this summer about Maye knocking off jitters early in games. Fast forward 18 weeks, and Maye paces all quarterbacks in first-quarter expected points added (EPA) per play and completion percentage over expected (CPOE).

• The Patriots’ defense ranks 18th in first-quarter EPA per play, 26th in first-quarter success rate, 21st in first-quarter EPA per dropback and 16th in first-quarter EPA per rush. It’s actually surprising that they rank that well in those metrics, since it feels like they’ve allowed a touchdown on the first drive of most games. If the Patriots can get out to an early lead and stop the Chargers early, that could make them one-dimensional and heavily dependent on two backup tackles to protect Justin Herbert in the passing game.

• That leads to the next thing we’re watching, and that’s whether or not the Patriots have the ability to exploit Chargers left tackle Jamaree Salyer and right tackle Trey Pipkins. The Patriots do not have a top-tier pass rusher, but they still rank 10th in NFL Pro’s pressure rate. They’re 19th in ESPN’s pass-rush win rate. K’Lavon Chaisson has been a nice find on a one-year deal in free agency and leads the team with 54 pressures. Defensive tackle Christian Barmore has struggled at times against the run but ranks highly among interior defenders with 50 total pressures. Outside linebacker Harold Landry returned to practice this week after missing two games, and defensive tackle Milton Williams was activated off injured reserve last week and looked spry against the Dolphins. It feels like enough to disrupt Herbert.

• Among 37 qualified passers, Herbert ranks 11th in PFF’s passing grade under pressure with a 56.1 mark. For comparison’s sake, Maye is fifth with a 61.8 mark. Herbert has a 74.4 passer rating under pressure, while Maye’s passer rating under pressure is 90.4

• The Chargers have two dangerous pass rushers in Khalil Mack and Tuli Tuipulotu. If this was last season, or even 2023, that would be a major problem for the Patriots. But the Pats’ front office bolstered their offensive line by signing right tackle Morgan Moses and selecting Will Campbell in the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft. Both players have been massive upgrades and rank among the top half of NFL tackles. Campbell returned from IR last week and looked back to himself.

• The Patriots ranked as one of the NFL’s top run defenses through the first 10 weeks of the season. Then Williams went on injured reserve, then linebacker Robert Spillane went down, then defensive tackle Khyiris Tonga dealt with multiple ailments, and then Landry sat out two weeks, and the unit got shaky against the ground game. How well the unit can stop the run without Tonga could decide this game. It’s massive to get Williams, Spillane and potentially Landry back. But can they be as effective and jell as a unit right away?

• Herbert threw four interceptions in last year’s playoff loss to the Texans, and the last thing he wants is a repeat of that performance. The Patriots haven’t generated four turnovers in a game all season. Starting cornerbacks Christian Gonzalez and Carlton Davis have yet to intercept a pass. It doesn’t necessarily need to be Gonzalez or Davis, and the Patriots will welcome forced fumbles, as well, but the Patriots need to be able to take the ball away. Prior to the Patriots’ Week 16 win over the Ravens, they really prioritized punching the ball out. They did it twice against the Ravens and again in Week 18 against the Dolphins. Herbert has also had some fumbling issues since injuring his left hand in Week 13. He’s fumbled five times over his last four games.

• The Patriots’ run game has come on strong over the second half of the season with rookie TreVeyon Henderson and veteran Rhamondre Stevenson showing the ability to rip off big plays. Stevenson, especially, has been fantastic over the final four weeks. It’s going to be tough sledding against the Chargers’ defense, but both backs need to continue to run decisively. More importantly, they need to continue to hold onto the football.

• Game prediction: Patriots win 24-21. It won’t be easy, but the Patriots are a good team, and the Chargers have enough flaws to exploit. The Patriots should advance.