Patriots film review: Why Sunday’s regular-season finale offered a roadmap to Super Bowl

Sunday’s tape, believe it or not, is the roadmap.

The leaks in this Patriots defense?

Patched with a few red-zone stops and a couple of turnovers.

The offense? That league-leading, high-powered, high-flying offense, occasionally grounded by an inefficient run game?

Lifted by four explosive runs that covered as much ground as if the Pats had instead churned out 20 straight carries at six yards a pop.

Create explosive runs and turnovers, easier said than done, yes. But nothing’s easy now.

Welcome to the NFL playoffs.

“You’d better be able to (run the ball) in the tournament, and you’d better be able to take care of the football,” Mike Vrabel said Sunday. “You’d better be able to create some turnovers, and you have to have efficient quarterback play. That’s no secret. … That’s what it comes down to.”

The Patriots’ 38-10 blowout of Miami both punctuated their regular season and offered an outline for how they can complete a Super Bowl run. The path is narrow and rocky, starting with three games in as many weeks, all against high-caliber opponents. But the path is there.

More than ever, the Pats must leverage their strengths, such as Drake Maye’s deep ball, and mitigate their weaknesses, like their pass rush. There are no more soft schedule safety nets or easy outs. Only tough football and hard truths.

Even if Sunday played out like the walk in the park it should have been versus the JV Dolphins, the Patriots now need no further reminder of how they must play to extend what’s been a storybook season.

Here’s what else the film revealed about the Pats’ latest win, with all personnel, play-calling and team efficiencies tallied before Maye was pulled with 11:01 remaining:

Drake Maye

14-of-18 for 191 yards, TD, 41 rushing yards

Accurate throw percentage: 82.4%

Under pressure: 4-of-5 for 57 yards, 7 rushing yards

Against the blitz: 8-of-9 for 110 yards

Behind the line: 2-of-2 for 9 yards

0-9 yards downfield: 7-of-8 for 69 yards

10-19 yards downfield: 2-of-3 for 64 yards

20+ yards downfield: 2-of-4 for 49 yards, TD

Notes: It’s hard to completely isolate a quarterback’s performance when his run game racks up 243 yards against a defense forced to divide its attention. To wit: Maye was a perfect 6-of-6 for 94 yards off play-action.

But in the few moments Maye was forced to extend possessions, be it on third-and-long, the hurry-up drive before halftime or other obvious passing situations, he predictably delivered.

Maye resisted the temptation to force a pass to the double-covered Stefon Diggs and DeMario Douglas on his first scramble, a 7-yard rush that moved the chains. He created two explosive gains, first by rolling right and drawing defenders to eventually crack open a throwing lane to Hunter Henry and a 29-yard completion. Later, he slid up inside the pocket to avoid pressure and floated a 34-yard pass to Diggs.

Maye never threw into Miami’s occasional three-deep looks designed to discourage his dangerous deep ball. But when the Dolphins gave him proper 1-on-1 opportunities outside, such as his 15-yard touchdown to Rhamondre Stevenson, Maye capitalized. All together, his decision-making was sound, he threw just one inaccurate pass within 20 yards of the line of scrimmage and didn’t risk a turnover.

That’s a great day at the office, even if he locked on to a receiver here or there. This performance was even better than the box score showed.

Critical areas

Foxboro, MA – New England Patriots linebacker Elijah Ponder recovers a fumble during the second quarter of the game at Gillette Stadium. (Nancy Lane/Boston Herald)

Turnovers: Patriots 0, Dolphins 2

Explosive play rate: Patriots 16.1%, Dolphins 5.5%

Success rate: Patriots 69%, Dolphins 41%

Red-zone efficiency: Patriots 4-5, Dolphins 1-3

Defensive pressure rate: Patriots 38.7%, Dolphins 30%

Offense

Game plan

Personnel breakdown: 40% of snaps in 11 personnel, 23% of snaps in 12 personnel, 5% of snaps in 13 personnel, 12% of snaps in 21F personnel, 5% of snaps in 21H personnel, 10% of snaps in 22 personnel, 5% of snaps in jumbo personnel.***

Personnel production: 65% success rate in 11 personnel, 70% success rate in 12 personnel, 0% success rate in 13 personnel, 80% success rate in 21F personnel, 100% success rate in 21H personnel, 75% success rate in 22 personnel, 100% success rate in jumbo personnel.

First-down down play-calls: 52% run (83% success rate), 48% pass (73% success rate)

Play-action rate: 26.1%

Mike Vrabel makes case for Patriots QB Drake Maye to win MVP

A run-heavy opening script yielded exactly what Josh McDaniels wanted: domination and displacement of a bad Dolphins back seven.

The Pats hammered Miami between the tackles on their first two drives, handing off to Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson on inside zone, duo and one draw play. Around those runs, the Pats hit Miami with a 35-yard flea flicker and an end around to exploit the poor discipline of their defensive backs. But no Dolphins defender erred worse than linebacker Tyrel Dodson; a clear target on Stevenson’s 15-yard touchdown and non-factor on multiple interior runs.

McDaniels used a sixth O-lineman on roughly one-quarter of snaps for a third straight week, this time deploying backup Thayer Munford as a fullback, a tight end in motion and an extra offensive tackle near the goal line. The jumbo trend bears monitoring given its recent success and how McDaniels has diversified Munford’s usage. The Pats had an 81% success rate Sunday on plays with six offensive linemen and Maye on the field.

Otherwise, McDaniels relied on fairly standard pass concepts, including a regular play-action rate and excluding a shovel pass near the goal line. Maye’s scrambles helped the Patriots stay on track during a few series and escape trouble against a couple well-timed Miami calls that eliminated Diggs and took away his early reads. But when an offense is as successful as the Patriots were on first down, dominating via both run and pass, that speaks chiefly to two things: physicality and a sound plan.

Player stats

New England Patriots’ TreVeyon Henderson celebrates his touchdown with Rhamondre Stevenson during the first quarter of Sunday’s game at Gillette Stadium. (Nancy Lane/Boston Herald)

Broken tackles: RB Rhamondre Stevenson 4, RB TreVeyon Henderson 3, RB D’Ernest Johnson, QB Drake Maye, QB Joshua Dobbs

Pressure allowed: Team 3 (2 QB hits, hurry), C Garrett Bradbury (hurry), RG Mike Onwenu (hurry), QB Drake Maye (hurry)

Run stuffs allowed: Team, LG Ben Brown, Bradbury

Drops: N/A

Notes

Rhamondre Stevenson piled up more than 100 rushing yards after contact, per Pro Football Focus; a number that is often cited to demonstrate poor run-blocking but Sunday highlighted his outstanding contact balance. Stevenson slipped tackles on his season-long 56-yard run and 20-yarder, bouncing off hits and running with power and vision not seen from him since September.
Running like this, Stevenson is a weapon again. And his blitz pickup remains invaluable, as seen on Drake Maye’s 16-yard completion to Hunter Henry in the second half when he aborted a play fake to stop a free runner cold. And how about those hands?
Stevenson caught his 15-yard touchdown on the same concept the Patriots almost scored on in Baltimore, a double-move down the right sideline. Expect them to keep that handy for the playoffs.
Josh McDaniels’ use of empty formations from large and small personnel groupings, as seen on that touchdown, clarifies coverage mismatches for Maye, who can often find one matchup he likes between the running backs, Stefon Diggs or Hunter Henry. It’s another wrinkle, like passes from the six O-linemen groupings (100% success rate), that helps the Patriots keep defenses honest without overwhelming skill-position talent.
TreVeyon Henderson’s impatience flashed a few times, and left rushing yards on the table. But his physicality between the tackles seems to inspire more confidence in the coaches, as it should. Not to mention he’s a walking explosive play whenever he’s afforded space on the outside.
Welcome back, Will Campbell. The first-round rookie showed zero rust in his return from IR. He sealed off stud Dolphins defensive tackle Zach Sieler on TreVeyon Henderson’s two-yard touchdown in the fourth quarter and posted a clean sheet in pass protection, save for a QB hit on a screen pass where the Pats invited pressure to open room downfield.
Great game from veteran right guard Mike Onwenu, who allowed one pressure but otherwise won most of his run-blocking battles and helped create a few wide rushing lanes inside.
Another week, another hat tip to Henry for his run-blocking. The Pats trusted their tight ends to handle Dolphins edge defenders on several occasions, and Henry did the job; not to mention his team-high five catches and sweet one-handed grab in the second quarter.
The Patriots divided Mack Hollins’ snaps between Kayshon Boutte, Kyle Williams and Efton Chism. The rookies both stuck their noses in as run-blockers, with Williams fighting to the end of Stevenson’s 20-yard run and Chism setting up his 35-yard gain on the flea flicker with strong blocking efforts before the play.
Diggs recorded two of his three catches on first down, including his 34-yarder on a deep in-cut in the second half. The Pats might be wise to begin feeding him on early downs before defenses, like the Dolphins’ and Buffalo’s before them, can send double-teams on third-and-long.
Backup offensive lineman Thayer Munford whiffed blocking the Patriots’ first run, but otherwise mowed defenders down as a fullback and moving tight end. Will he keep the job if and when defensive tackle/fullback Khyiris Tonga returns from injury? Maybe play them both?

Defense

Game plan

Personnel breakdown: 57% base defense, 43% three-corner nickel package.****

Coverage breakdown: 84% zone, 16% man

Blitz rate: 38.7%

Blitz efficacy: 47% offensive success rate and 4.8 yards per play allowed

More zone, more blitz pressure.

The Pats stuck to a two-pronged approach Sunday, keeping all eyes on the backfield against a motion-heavy Dolphins offense while trying to heat up rookie quarterback Quinn Ewers in obvious passing situations. After getting gouged repeatedly by bootleg play-action passes, screens and space plays over their first two series, the Pats struck back with a short-yardage stop and forced fumble on the next two series.

Not much about their coverage plan nor personnel usage in neutral downs changed after that, save for a couple man-blitz calls that worked. Defensive play-caller Zak Kuhr majored in Cover 3 and Cover 4, with a small dose of Cover 2, including an early call disguised pre-snap as blitz pressure that failed because of a poor pass rush. The Pats preferred to play out of base personnel for most drives before garbage time.

Overall, talent won out over scheme Sunday, and winning the high-leverage moments — two turnovers inside the red zone, the aforementioned forced fumble and limiting a two-minute drill before halftime — carried this unit to a winning performance.

Player stats

Interception: S Jaylinn Hawkins

Forced fumbles: LB Jack Gibbens, LB Jahlani Tavai

Pressure: DL Christian Barmore 2 (sack, QB hit), OLB K’Lavon Chaisson 2 (sack, QB hit), OLB Elijah Ponder 2 (sack, hurry), OLB Anfernee Jennings 2 (QB hit, hurry), OLB K’Lavon Chaisson 2 (sack, QB hit), CB Marcus Jones (sack), DL Milton Williams (hurry), Eric Gregory (hurry)

Run stuffs: Team 3, DL Cory Durden, Williams, Jennings

Pass deflections: Gibbens 2, CB Carlton Davis

Missed tackles: S Craig Woodson 3, Durden 2, CB Kobee Minor, S Brenden Schooler, Davis, Gregory Jennings

Notes

You never would have known the linebacking corps was down its heart and soul. In place of the injured Robert Spillane, inside linebacker Jack Gibbens flew around to the tune of five tackles, a forced fumble and two pass breakups, one of which should have been an interception.
Gibbens flashed tremendous instincts versus a Dolphins offense designed to quickly displace defenders and create creases with motion and misdirection. Gibbens is a half-step slower and a bit lighter than Spillane, but he played like Spillane’s spitting image Sunday.
Two other unheralded stars: outside linebacker Anfernee Jennings and defensive tackle Cory Durden. Jennings was relentless from start to finish in his best game of the season, and his two pressures belie how much of a constant nuisance he was in Miami’s backfield.
Durden, meanwhile, factored into multiple run stuffs, including the third-and-1 stop that forced Miami to punt for the first time on its third possession.
So what happened on the first two drives? The Patriots were slow to the fact Miami wouldn’t ask Ewers to execute a standard dropback pass offense and failed to contain easier throws, like his bootleg play-action passes and screens.
Lucky for them, the Dolphins overthought a fourth-and-1 snap deep inside the red zone on their opening drive and passed instead of handing the ball off against the NFL’s worst short-yardage defense. That turnover on downs, it seems, bought the Pats some time to get a handle on Miami’s motions.
How did Milton Williams look in his return? The veteran defensive tackle showed some burst — specifically forcing Ewers to hold on to the ball before Elijah Ponder dropped him for a sack — but his consistency was lacking. Here’s hoping it was only rust.
Christian Barmore created a little more havoc against the run and pass than usual, but his only pressure was contained to the second quarter. The same can be said for K’Lavon Chaisson before garbage time, when he tallied his sack and a QB hit.
Rough game for rookie safety Craig Woodson, who missed three tackles and still can’t create enough disruption in coverage. Woodson appeared to be at fault on Ewers’ only touchdown pass, where Miami’s pre-snap motion had him and Christian Gonzalez staring into the backfield while Malik Washington slipped into the left corner of the end zone all alone.
The Dolphins clearly targeted Carlton Davis over Gonzalez in certain situations, something the Patriots can and should expect in the playoffs, especially when offenses isolate Davis in 3×1 formations as Miami did.
When the Patriots struggle to generate without blitzing, it’s important to remember they are playing a non-trivial number of snaps right now with combinations of Durden, Eric Gregory, Leonard Taylor III, Elijah Ponder, Christian Elliss, Gibbens and Jennings in their front seven. This will be an area the front office targets this offseason.

*Explosive plays are defined as runs of 12-plus yards and passes of 20-plus yards.

**Success rate is an efficiency metric measuring how often an offense stays on schedule. A play is successful when it produces positive EPA (Expected Points Added).

***11 personnel = one running back, one tight end; 12 personnel = one running back, two tight ends; 13 personnel = one back, three tight ends; 21 personnel = two backs, one tight end; 21H = two halfbacks, one tight end; 21F = one running back, one fullback, one tight end; jumbo personnel = two backs, two tight ends, six offensive linemen.

****Base defense = four defensive backs; nickel = five.

 

 

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.

Previous post Massachusetts Gov. Healey’s fired aide charged with trafficking cocaine overpaid
Next post Salvation Army justified in sacking refugee worker over ‘send them back on a boat’ remark, tribunal rules