By Tom Ozimek

American drivers began the new year with further relief at the gas pump, as national average gasoline prices continued to edge lower, extending a period of unusual calm in fuel markets that analysts say made 2025 one of the most stable years in nearly two decades.

Data from AAA show the national average price for a gallon of regular gasoline fell to $2.83 on Jan. 1, down from $2.84 a day earlier, $2.85 a week earlier, and $3.00 a month earlier. Prices slipped again on Jan. 2, easing to $2.83 per gallon.

The latest figures put gasoline prices at around 23 cents below the price of $3.06, where they stood on New Year’s Day in 2025, when President Joe Biden was in office. According to AAA, drivers in 40 states are now paying less than $3 per gallon on average, underscoring the breadth of the decline.

Oklahoma recorded the lowest statewide average at $2.24 per gallon on Jan. 2, while Hawaii remained the most expensive market at $4.42.

Gas Prices Drift Lower After a Year of Rare Stability

Analysts attribute the sustained easing to a combination of robust domestic oil production and increased global supply, including a late-year ramp-up in output by members of OPEC+, despite continued sanctions on oil exporters such as Russia and Venezuela.

Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, said prices are likely to drift lower in the near term before bottoming out later in the winter.

“Oil prices have remained relatively low even amid the U.S. blockade on Venezuela’s oil exports,” he said in a Dec. 29 statement. “With refineries running at seasonally high output and gasoline inventories building, most states—outside of price-cycling markets—have continued to see declines, with some stations in nearly a dozen states now dipping below the $2-per-gallon mark.”

The latest drops come as new data from GasBuddy highlight how muted gasoline price movements were over the past year. In a year-end review published on Dec. 30, GasBuddy said 2025 was “one of the calmest and most stable years at the pump in nearly two decades,” delivering the smallest annual price swing since 2017 and the lowest volatility since 2005.

GasBuddy’s analysis shows the national average gasoline price peaked at $3.26 per gallon on April 3, 2025, before gradually easing to a year-low of $2.76 on Dec. 28—a total range of just over 50 cents. Prices peaked unusually early in the year and reached their low unusually late, a pattern that reflected a slow, steady drift rather than sharp swings.

“When drivers look back, 2025 will stand out as one of the calmest years at the pump in recent history,” De Haan said in a statement. “That level of stability is unusual, and it may not be fully appreciated until volatility returns.”

The muted price movement stood in contrast to the sharp swings seen during the pandemic and after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, when supply shocks and demand surges rattled fuel markets.

White House Amplifies Affordability Message

The easing at the pump has featured prominently in messaging from President Donald Trump and members of his administration.

In early December, the White House cited a GasBuddy report showing gasoline prices at their lowest levels in nearly five years as evidence of broader economic improvement.

“It’s part of an emerging trend of strong economic news, backed up by data,” the administration said in a Dec. 8 post, pointing also to falling rents, declining jobless claims, lower mortgage rates, and rising consumer sentiment.

Polling suggests affordability remains a dominant concern for voters, even as inflation has cooled from its 2022 peak of about 9 percent during the Biden administration. A recent survey by NPR, PBS News, and Marist found that 70 percent of respondents said the cost of living is not very affordable or not affordable at all—the highest share expressing that view since 2011.

Trump has repeatedly blamed high prices on his predecessor. In a Dec. 17 primetime address, he said the term “affordability” only entered the political lexicon after prices surged under Biden.

Economic data show price pressures have eased under Trump’s second term. In November, annual inflation slowed to 2.7 percent, below market expectations, while core inflation—excluding food and energy—fell to 2.6 percent, the lowest level since March 2021.

Trump told Politico in a Dec. 26 interview that he expects the 2026 midterm elections to hinge on prices and perceptions of economic progress.

“I think it’s going to be about the success of our country. It’ll be about pricing,” Trump said. “Because … they gave us high pricing, and we’re bringing it down. Energy’s way down. Gasoline is way down.”