FOXBORO — Win and in.

It’s that simple.

If the Patriots beat the Ravens tonight, they will clinch a postseason berth for the first time in four years.

Were it not for a loss last weekend versus Buffalo, the Pats (11-3) would already be wearing the division crown. Alas, the AFC East title is still within reach — provided they don’t falter down the stretch.

Starting in Baltimore, Drake Maye and Co. will battle a Ravens team fighting for its playoff life. Baltimore (7-7) shut out the Bengals 24-0 last week, thanks to a dominant defensive effort that included a pick-six. The Ravens could use a throwback performance from Lamar Jackson, who has struggled most of this season, but looked more like himself at Cincinnati.

As for the Patriots, Maye will need to carry the load for a depleted defense reeling from ill-timed injuries and a poor performance last Sunday versus the Bills. Can Maye win a shoot-out in Charm City?

Here’s what to watch for on Sunday Night Football:

When Patriots run

TreVeyon Henderson led a breakout performance last week, when the Pats piled up a season-high 246 rushing yards against Buffalo. Henderson scored two long touchdowns executing a game plan designed to test the edges. On Sunday, hitting home runs on the outside won’t be so easy.

The Ravens are allowing the second-lowest yards per carry against outside runs in the NFL, and their best run defenders might live inside. Just ask Mike Vrabel.

New England Patriots running back Treveyon Henderson runs past Buffalo Bills cornerback Taron Johnson during the second quarter of last Sunday’s game at Gillette Stadium. (Nancy Lane/Boston Herald)

“Teams aren’t really running the ball on them, so they’re forcing a lot of these games to be one-dimensional. Really good mix of veteran players and some youth, really good interior players. I mean, they’re just big, (defensive tackles Travis) Jones and (John) Jenkins,” Vrabel said this week. “And obviously they’ll rotate other guys through there, but it starts with those two.”

Between Henderson’s speed and Rhamondre Stevenson’s return to health, the Pats should be able to effectively alternate both backs to keep them fresh. Stevenson averaged 8.3 yards per carry against the Bills, a season high. And don’t forget Maye, who scored two rushing touchdowns early against the Bills.

When Patriots pass

Will Maye have time to throw?

If so, he should be able to go long versus a Baltimore defense with suspect deep-ball defense and one of the lower sack rates in the league. Maye is also the second-highest graded passer on plays that develop longer than 2.5 seconds at Pro Football Focus. That said, protecting Maye has been an issue most of this season, and the Ravens boast one of the better blitz packages in the league. Can the Pats stay out of third-and-long?

A final question: what about Stefon Diggs? The Patriots’ supposed No. 1 receiver hasn’t cracked 50% of their offensive snaps or 30 receiving yards in three straight games. He had been their walking answer to beating man coverage — a problem in recent weeks — yet has been successfully neutralized lately. If not Diggs, Maye will need Kayshon Boutte, DeMario Douglas, Mack Hollins or perhaps Henderson to step up against 1-on-1 coverage.

When Ravens run

All eyes on the King.

Derrick Henry is again powering one of the NFL’s best rushing attacks, running for 1,125 yards and 10 touchdowns this season. He’s a major threat to a crumbling Patriots run defense that is allowing conversions on 86% of short-yardage plays and struggling to get off blocks.

Baltimore Ravens running back Derrick Henry in action during the first half of an NFL game against the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday, Dec. 7 in Baltimore. (AP Photo/Nick Wass)

“He’s a very unique player,” Vrabel said this week. “Great speed, great power, strength. He’s just a different body type than what anybody would go against, and so it’s unique in that regard. They do a very nice job with their scheme, different personnel groups, different run plan and styles of run, and different run actions. So again, we know what he’s about: build speed and stiff arm and all that other stuff.”

With inside linebacker and captain Robert Spillane (ankle) still out, the impetus will fall on backup Jack Gibbens and Christian Elliss to bring Henry down on first contact. Expect the Patriots to bulk up with personnel packages that feature just four defensive backs, and sometimes three, to plug the holes in their front with extra defensive linemen and linebackers. And don’t forget about Ravens fullback Patrick Ricard, another weapon near the goal line.

When Ravens pass

If there was ever a week for Christian Gonzalez to shadow an opponent’s No. 1 receiver, this is it.

Boston College product Zay Flowers leads all Ravens pass-catchers by at least 40 targets, 30 catches and 600 receiving yards. He’s dangerous short and deep, inside the slot and out wide. If Marcus Jones and/or Carlton Davis are out (both are questionable), the Patriots shouldn’t trust their reserve cornerbacks to cover Flowers in their preferred man-to-man coverage, or maybe zone.

It would be a big help if Jackson continues to throw with scattershot accuracy. He’s completed less than 64% of his pass this year in a big-play passing attack that counts on opponents loading the box against their run game, something the Patriots will likely be forced to do. The Pats’ pass must get home often enough, even while it struggles in the absence of defensive tackle Milton Williams. Interior running mate Christian Barmore will have opportunities to push around the Ravens’ offensive guards, both weak spots in their pass protection.

Another matchup to watch: trusty tight end Mark Andrews. Even in a down year statistically, Andrews is a dangerous red-zone target for Baltimore. And at this point, no team knows the cost of porous red-zone defense better than the Patriots.

Game pick

Ravens 27, Patriots 24