Callahan: Why the Patriots’ luck will change, an old problem resurfaces and more Week 16 thoughts

Welcome to the Friday Five!

Every week during the NFL regular season, I’ll drop five Patriots-related thoughts on Friday to recap the week that was in Foxboro and look ahead to kickoff.

Ready, set, football.

1. New season, old problem

There was a time when Drake Maye was the most dangerous quarterback in the NFL against man coverage.

That time, for now, is over.

What’s old is new again in New England, where the Patriots’ passing game is not exactly thriving versus man coverage. For a time, the combination of Stefon Diggs, DeMario Douglas, deep balls to Kayshon Boutte and Maye scrambles solved this. But Maye is rushing less, Boutte isn’t seeing many targets, Douglas is barely playing and Diggs’ snap counts are now reflective of a rotational player.

Additionally, Maye has come down from a historically accurate season (understandable), while his level of competition has gone up (inevitable). After ranking No. 1 in the league by Expected Points Added (EPA) per play against man-to-man, Maye is 10th among starting quarterbacks over the last five weeks, a stretch that began with the Patriots’ win at Tampa Bay. Maye is also 22nd by passer rating, 22nd in yards per attempt and 24th by sack percentage against man-to-man. Conversely, Maye is No. 3 by EPA against zone.

Bottom line: the coaching staff must help Maye and his receivers help themselves versus man coverage, a years-long problem dating back to the end of the Tom Brady era. Josh McDaniels sounded ready to sharpen some of the Patriots’ man-beating concepts this week in practice.

“We’re always trying to hunt those (plays) up and see if we can find ways to help our guys create more separation or make some plays against any coverage. … I also think teams have seen enough of us, and enough of everybody around the league, that you start to see some things now that maybe you weren’t seeing a month ago,” McDaniels said. “You know, (Buffalo) doubled Stef (Diggs) a number of times in the game the other day. There’s been teams that have not done anything like that, and then there’s been teams that are starting to sprinkle things in there.

“So whether that’s dropping extra people in the short area or it’s double-teaming people — (Hunter Henry)’s had some of that this year, too — there’s no shortcut to winning against man-to-man coverage. I mean, it’s a 1-on-1 game across the board. And sometimes you have a scheme that’s really perfect for it. Sometimes you do not, you know, and our job is to try to figure out as many ways as we can to help them.”

2. Better luck next time

Pick a defensive metric, and the Patriots have tumbled in that category over the last few weeks.

New England Patriots linebacker Robert Spillane stiff-arms Cleveland Browns running back Dylan Sampson after an interception during a game at Gillette Stadium. (Nancy Lane/Boston Herald)

Be it rushing yards allowed, points allowed, DVOA, EPA, you name it. Part of that is a function of facing a more difficult schedule. Look no further than last Sunday than when Josh Allen, the reigning MVP, led five straight touchdown drives in a Bills win. Another piece is injury luck. The Pats lost their best pass rusher, Milton Williams, to a high ankle sprain, then inside linebacker and captain, Robert Spillane to foot and ankle injuries.

Even if the Pats’ injury luck doesn’t turn around in time for kickoff Sunday in Baltimore, another bit of fortune might: turnovers.

The Patriots have just three takeaways since the start of November, including a fumble they forced on a kickoff return versus the Giants and an unforced fumble they recovered against the Jets. Their only other turnover, Marcus Jones’ pick-six at Cincinnati, is their lone interception since they snatched two from since-benched Browns starter Dillon Gabriel almost two months ago.

But the lack of picks is not for lack of effort.

During this turnover drought, the Pats have recorded 30 pass breakups, good for 12th in the league, per SumerSports. Since the start of the 2022 season, 18% of pass breakups in the NFL have resulted in interceptions, meaning the Patriots are roughly four shy of the number of picks they should have during this stretch based on their ball disruption.

The Patriots worked on forcing fumbles at the start of a fully padded practice Thursday; a wise move considering the Ravens have fumbled 19 times, second-most in the league. As for generating more interceptions, that should simply be a matter of time.

3. Williams’ return

Welcome back, coach.

Patriots’ defensive coordinator Terrell Williams twice walked through the locker room this week during media access and has been around players again as he battles prostate cancer. Williams has occasionally visited the facility amid his ongoing treatment, which intensified in mid-October. Dating back to late September, players have relayed how much Williams’ presence has meant to them.

Drake Maye became the latest to reflect on Williams’ return Wednesday.

How a Patriots coach’s battle with cancer is inspiring their defense

“It’s awesome seeing him around. Anytime he’s around, it brings joy to us,” Maye said. “It brings joy to the locker room. It brings joy to see his face, see how he’s doing. Just praying for him. He’s continuing to fight, and what a story. It’s been something for us to rally around and somebody to care about.”

Back in October, captain and outside linebacker Harold Landry said: “I’m a perfectionist, so I try to be perfect in a lot of different things. But with him being around, I just think to myself that I’m extremely blessed. And I don’t know, it’s just like the attitude, everything that he is as a person, it just makes me go about my day in a much more positive light.”

4. ‘Team mom’ retiring

Patriots director of scouting administration Nancy Meier is retiring after 51 years on the job.

Meier is the team’s longest-tenured employee and often the first person new players meet upon arriving in Foxboro. Meier helps onboard draft picks and manage travel for members of the organization across several departments. For decades, she has maintained close connections with players, and her departure, first reported by Sports Business Journal, caught some by surprise in the locker room this week.

“Team mom, kind of like a nurturer away from home. Especially me being from the West Coast, my mom’s far away, my whole family’s far away, so anytime I need to talk, I need anything, I just go straight to Nancy,” Rhamondre Stevenson said.

Related Articles


Patriots-Ravens injury report: Lamar Jackson upgraded, 4 Pats starters sit Thursday


How injury-depleted Patriots defense can improve against the run


What Josh McDaniels had to say about Stefon Diggs’ reduced playing time with Patriots


How Josh McDaniels explains Patriots’ recent second-half struggles on offense


Patriots defense take major hit at Thursday practice before Ravens game

“She’s just a nice, nice lady, has been here forever, and I love her,” Stevenson added. “I hope she’s not leaving.”

Meier will reportedly retire in May when her contract is up.

“She made things easy (when I got drafted),” said Pats right guard Mike Onwenu, a 2020 draft pick. “Even a couple of years later, I still go to her for questions and requests and just her opinion and stuff like that. She’s always been a helping hand and a leading light for our program.”

5. Did you know?

One of the Patriots’ longest road droughts against any opponent is at Baltimore.

The last time the Patriots beat the Ravens on the road was Dec. 22, 2013, almost 12 years to the day from Sunday’s kickoff.

Joe Flacco is the only remaining player from that game still in the NFL. The Patriots’ win pushed them to 11-4 and put a dent in the Ravens’ playoff hopes, dropping them to 8-7. On Sunday, the Patriots will kick off with an 11-3 record, while Baltimore is 7-7.

The only other teams the Pats haven’t beaten for a longer stretch of time in the regular season as a road team are Jacksonville (December 2012), LA Rams* (October 2012), Detroit (November 2010), Seattle (December 2008) and Green Bay (November 2006).

*Game played in London.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.

Previous post Willner and Sullivan: Visa misstep will help predators, scammers
Next post From the TotalEnergies CAF Africa Cup of Nations Morocco 2025 to the all-new Across – Suzuki is bringing it all to Montecasino this December