Callahan: The Patriots need Drake Maye now more than ever

FOXBORO — This is the type of column the Patriots should shield from their franchise quarterback.

Not because Drake Maye cares how I fill this space. Or has ever bothered to find out.

But because the notion that the Patriots’ hopes and dreams rest on his shoulders is dangerous. Even if it’s true.

And as the Pats prepare for another win-and-in game Sunday, it’s never been more true.

The Patriots are limping. A team reckoning with injuries and its limitations on defense and special teams. Maye is their ticket to the postseason run they’ve been chasing ever since he powered that primetime win at Buffalo, sparking the imaginations of a franchise and fan base.

But since then, the Bills have exposed the Patriots’ defense as a sieve, and especially in critical situations. Opponents are converting on 86% of their runs in short-yardage. They’re scoring touchdowns on 75% of their trips inside the red zone, which now might as well be a red carpet. The only time Buffalo relented on six drives inside the 20-yard line last weekend is when it chose mercy by kneeling the clock out.

Sunday in Baltimore may not prove to be much better. The Pats practiced without five defensive starters Wednesday, including two captains and an impact player at every level. One of those captains, Robert Spillane, wore a walking boot in the locker room.

If wrangling Derrick Henry wasn’t hard enough, try creating pressure with a smattering of backups and banged-up starters. Since losing Milton Williams, the Pats have a bottom-10 sack rate. They’ve hit quarterbacks just a dozen times. Christian Barmore has three QB hits over the last two months, and Harold Landry is playing on one good leg.

So, no pass rush and resistance against the run, plus special teams. All of this puts more on Maye. On his mind, shoulders and spirit.

History shows the pressure of carrying a team can crack a young quarterback, particularly a 23-year-old tempted by his own talents under pressure; tempted to force throws, take risks, throw on his cape and fly out of the phone booth, all in efforts to save his team.

But the MVP version of Maye is not a Superman solo act, rather a point guard masquerading as a quarterback. A player mature beyond his years who butchers defenses by alternating deep balls with precise underneath strikes and back-breaking scrambles. Yet last Sunday, Maye threw with scattershot accuracy, sailing incompletions and anxiously scanning a field full of receivers blanketed by tight coverage.

It has always been true the Pats would go as far as Maye could take them. He is the driving force behind their 11-3 start. But around Maye, the Pats are regressing.

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Stefon Diggs is no longer the man-coverage antidote the Patriots expected and experienced earlier this year. Kayshon Boutte is suddenly good for one catch per game. Their run game still ranks bottom-5 by the opponent-and-situation-adjusted metric DVOA, even after last weekend’s outburst. Their offensive line is the face of the NFL’s fifth-highest pressure rate allowed, meaning Maye has been hit, hurried or sacked more than 38% of the time he’s dropped back to pass.

Ouch.

To course-correct, the Patriots must protect him from such punishment. Maye must be allowed to be loose, focused, daring but controlled. Basically, unencumbered by weight of the moment. Himself.

The good news is he sounds ready.

“I think when the pressure’s on, you don’t have to play outside (the system) and try to make a hero play,” Maye said Wednesday. “Just make a winning play.”

Even better news: Baltimore’s pass defense should allow for that. The Ravens rank 21st by DVOA, neighboring teams Maye has shredded like the Giants and Panthers. They’re also below average against deep passes, Maye’s trademark.

The bad news is Baltimore is likely to pressure him more than most teams, just as Sunday’s stakes will weigh on him more than most games. The Ravens are stubborn against the run, anchored by two massive defensive tackles. On third down, their blitz package is as diverse and dangerous as any in the league.

If Maye can’t hand it off on early downs, the ball, the game and weight of this season will be in his hands.

How much can he carry?

 

 

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