Not a hat and T-shirt game.

A championship.

That’s how Mike Vrabel has described Sunday’s showdown with the Bills, a perfectly timed visit as the Patriots try to end Buffalo’s five-year reign as AFC East champions. If the Pats win, they clinch the division. It’s that simple.

Surprisingly, the Pats (11-2) have been installed as home underdogs against the 9-4 Bills, who are coming off a home scare against Cincinnati last weekend. In their only other meeting this season, Drake Maye led a game-winning drive in the final minute to seal a 23-20 upset at Buffalo on Oct. 5. That win announced the Patriots’ arrival as a team to be taken seriously this season, a respect they’ve only grown since then.

But much has changed for the Bills, too.

Here’s what to watch for in Foxboro:

When the Patriots run

Last time out, offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels wanted to bully the Bills on the ground. The Pats played with multiple backs and/or tight ends on more than 60% of their snaps and took a run-heavy approach in the first half, yet had little to show for it in the box score.

TreVeyon Henderson led the Pats with 24 rushing yards, while the offense averaged 3.2 yards per rush as a whole. Buffalo’s run defense still appears suspect, ranked 30th by the opponent-and-situation-adjusted metric DVOA, but the issue is how the Patriots just failed to crack the league’s 31st and 32nd-ranked run defenses. Those belong to the Giants and Bengals, who both bottled up the Pats’ rushing attack (excluding a couple Henderson runs) in recent weeks.

If the Patriots do break Buffalo on the ground, it should be because they exploit the Bills’ poor tackling. The Bills have whiffed an astonishing 115 times, according to Pro Football Focus, which could lead to explosive runs if McDaniels can get Henderson into space. Otherwise, look for the Pats to plow straight ahead in short-yardage situations where they have struggled this season, but not as much as Buffalo’s defense, which ranks second-worst in the league.

When the Patriots pass

Might Stefon Diggs have an encore in store.

Back in October, Diggs roasted his former team with 10 catches for 146 yards. He caught more than half of Maye’s completions in the second half, when the Pats put the Bills to bed on a dramatic final drive. Since then, Diggs has topped 70 yards just once, and the Patriots have spread the ball around.

Expect Maye to do the same Sunday, and throw away from Diggs if he draws Buffalo cornerback Christian Benford, and Benford is able to play through a new toe injury. Last week, Benford held Bengals star Ja’Marr Chase without a catch in their 1-on-1 matchups and snatched a pick-six. Around Benford, Cincinnati successfully targeted tight end Mike Gesicki, something the Patriots could do whenever Hunter Henry is matched up against linebackers Terrel Bernard (questionable, elbow) and Matt Milano. Both Bernard and Milano have struggled in coverage all year.

New England Patriots tight end Hunter Henry (85) and wide receiver Mack Hollins (13) celebrate a first down against the Buffalo Bills during the second half of an NFL football game, Sunday, Sept. 5, 2025, in Orchard Park, N.Y. (AP Photo/Adrian Kraus)

Otherwise, this comes down to protecting Maye. The Pats allowed Maye to be pressured on 44% of dropbacks in Buffalo, a number they can’t afford to replicate Sunday. Maye will be sifting through the Bills set of pre-snap disguises that are partially responsible for Patriots quarterbacks throwing more interceptions than touchdowns against them since head coach Sean McDermott arrived in 2017.

“They’re really good (at) disguising,” Maye said this week. “(I’m) just trying to see that they’ve got to go to what they’re going to play at the end of the day; just trying to play fast, play smart and just do my best to see it post-snap and make a decision.”

When the Bills run

Buckle up.

The Bills’ run game ranks first in the NFL at 5.1 yards per carry and more than 157 per game. Star running back James Cook is a tackle-busting, game-breaking weapon whom the Pats held to fewer than 50 rushing yards in Week 5, but are unlikely to contain again Sunday. Their run defense has sagged to 16th by DVOA in the absence of defensive tackle Milton Williams.

The good news is the Patriots will return veteran defensive lineman Khyiris Tonga (6-2, 335) after he missed their last game with a chest injury. Tonga keyed the Pats’ game plan of playing heavier personnel in a traditional 3-4 alignment. If Vrabel and defensive play-caller Zak Kuhr return to the same schematic well Sunday, that will put pressure on backup defensive lineman Cory Durden and linebacker Jahlani Tavai, who would join Harold Landry, Robert Spillane and Christian Elliss at the second level.

Related Articles

Lucas: President Trump should crash Patriots party

10 things we’re watching in Patriots-Bills matchup for AFC East title

New Patriots: Get to know Patriots ascending rookie pass rusher Elijah Ponder

Patriots coach Mike Vrabel provides injury updates on Milton Williams, Will Campbell

Patriots-Bills injury report: Two New England starters cleared, LB Robert Spillane questionable for Sunday

“Again, we’ll need everybody up front (with) how important the ability to stop the run is this week,” Vrabel said Wednesday. “That’s just a large part of what they do. They have a lot of confidence in it. (It’s) ot the only thing that they do, they do a lot of things well, but certainly they’re going to run it until you stop them, and then they’re going to have everything off of it.”

When the Bills pass

Like all great quarterbacks, Josh Allen foists a pick-your-poison decision on opposing defenses.

Play man coverage against him, and Allen can tear you apart by scrambling or ripping pinpoint throws downfield. Play soft zone, and he’s too smart not to exploit holes downfield. Blitz Allen, and he’s liable to run past you or complete 63.9% of his passes at 8.8 yards per attempt, which is exactly what he’s been doing this season.

The Patriots’ poison of choice earlier this year was man-to-man, which they played on 43% of passing snaps. They blitzed Allen sparingly, but succeeded virtually every time they sent extra rushers at him. That timing is no guarantee this time around, but expect the frequency of blitzes to go up.

That’s because the Pats’ pass rush has waned significantly without Williams and with a diminished Harold Landry (knee). Even coming off the bye, it’s hard to imagine the coaching staff will trust that pass rush to affect Allen, especially after posting a measly 22% pressure rate in the last meeting.

That will leave cornerbacks Christian Gonzalez, Carlton Davis and Marcus Jones on islands against wide receivers Khalil Shakir (55 catches, 585 yards) and Keon Coleman. And yet the most interesting matchups should be over the middle, where Allen repeatedly targeted tight end Dalton Kincaid in the first matchup. For Buffalo, working the middle against the Patriots’ linebackers and safeties via Kincaid, fellow tight end Dawson Knox and Cook should key the long, methodical drives that have hurt this defense most of the season.

Unless, of course, Allen breaks off a 40-yard scramble for a touchdown like he did last year in Cincinnati.

Game pick

Patriots 27, Bills 25