Patriots mailbag: What coverages has Drake Maye thrived against this season?
The Patriots can clinch the AFC East with a win over the Bills on Sunday.
That’s what’s at stake for the Patriots in Week 15, and head coach Mike Vrabel has made his squad well aware.
Throughout the season, Vrabel has tried to inspire his team with different accomplishments. After beating the Panthers, Saints and Falcons, he told them they could “win the NFC South” with a win over the Buccaneers. They did it. He also pushed them to be the first team to 10 wins. That worked too.
A divisional title would easily be the biggest accomplishment so far for this year’s Patriots team. They haven’t won the AFC East since 2019; the Bills have won it five straight seasons. In fact, there are zero players left from that 2019 team still on the Patriots.
So, that’s motivation enough for the Patriots this week. It won’t be easy, but they did already beat the Bills in Buffalo in Week 5 in a hostile environment.
Let’s get into this week’s mailbag.
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@TheJigStillUp: How many key players do we still have injured and is it worth not playing them since we still would lead the AFC East with a loss
An update on the Patriots’ injuries: rookie left tackle Will Campbell and defensive tackle Milton Williams are on injured reserve. Campbell (knee) can’t return until Week 18. Williams can’t play until Week 17.
During Monday’s practice, running back Terrell Jennings (head) and outside linebacker Harold Landry (knee) were not spotted. Jennings can’t practice if he’s in concussion protocol. I wouldn’t be surprised if Monday was a veteran rest day for Landry to continue to lighten his load down the stretch.
Defensive tackle Khyiris Tonga (chest) and linebacker Robert Spillane (unknown) were limited. Tonga missed Week 13, so we’ll closely monitor his practice participation this week. The Patriots could use him against the Bills’ rushing attack. And there was no injury announced for Spillane during the Patriots’ Week 13 win over the Giants, despite the fact that he sat out the end of the game. It also wouldn’t be surprising if the Patriots are giving him some much-needed rest, as well. Spillane has played the third-most defensive snaps on the team this season, and linebacker is a physically demanding position.
Left guard Jared Wilson (ankle) and safety Brenden Schooler (ankle) both returned to practice and participated in drills. It appears they’re at least nearing a comeback this week.
So, the Patriots are in pretty good shape injury-wise at this time of year. It’s worth playing anyone who can suit up on Sunday, since the team is already down Campbell and Williams.
@grumpy_veteran: Early in the season you mentioned Drake was seeing a lot of single high safety coverage/Cover 1. I know the Bucs switched up a bit of the coverage, but has Drake seen much change in coverages by other teams as he’s become a more prolific passer?
Here’s a breakdown of the coverages Maye has faced this season and his expected points added (EPA) per play against them, per Sumer Sports:
1. Cover 3 – 35.32% – +0.397
2. Cover 1 – 20.26% – +0.262
3. Cover 2 – 16.10% – +0.201
4. Cover 4 – 14.55% – +0.321
5. Cover 0 – 5.71% – -0.322
6. Cover 6 – 3.64% – +0.326
7. Cover 2 Man – 2.08% – +0.597
8. Red zone – 2.08% – -0.280
9. Short – 0.26% – -1.286
He’s strongest against Cover 2 man, Cover 3, Cover 6 and quarters, while he’s struggled against red zone, Cover 0 and short-yardage. Maye’s passer rating is over 100 against Cover 4, Cover 1, Cover 3 and Cover 6. It’s still above 90 against Cover 2, redzone, Cover 2 Man and Cover 0.
So, Maye is pretty strong against everything.
Here is the Bills’ coverage breakdown this season:
1. Cover 3 – 27.35%
2. Cover 1 – 16.57%
3. Cover 4 – 15.47%
4. Cover 2 – 15.47%
5. Cover 6 – 11.05%
6. Red zone – 4.97%
7. Cover 2 Man – 4.42%
8. Cover 0 – 3.59%
9. Prevent – 0.83%
10. Misc – 0.28%
That bodes well for Maye and the Patriots.
@pereira_report: Best and worst case scenario for a playoff matchup
Assuming the Patriots will wind up with a high seed, I look at the Texans as being a problematic matchup, just because their defense is so good.
I wouldn’t be particularly scared of the Jaguars, Steelers, Chargers or Colts. If the Chiefs sneak in, they could be tough, as well, especially if they’re on a hot streak.
@garlicksauce: What are they doing with the extra cap space this season?
Carrying the majority of it over to next year, when they’ll need it to sign free agents, their draft picks and make any potential trades.
There’s not much you can do with cap space at this time of year, so there’s no point in wasting it just to say they did.
@lokicann24: They got a shot, this is the worst the NFL has been in many many years
I’m not sure if the NFL is bad or if there’s just much more parity than in years past.
I do think that because of the parity, the Patriots do seem to have a legitimate chance to make and potentially win a Super Bowl. I did not feel that way as recently as two or three weeks ago. But there’s no real dominant team out there, and the Patriots belong at or near the top of any NFL power rankings.
@MikeGiardi: how do you feel about sharing a name with my dog?
I’m honored.
@Cmerc5: Any word on Will Campbell? Some of the playoff defenses worry me with how they can get to the QB so we need full strength up front
Campbell was spotted in the locker room Monday walking fine and without any sort of brace on his knee. I actually forgot he was injured when I first saw him. He then sat down at his locker and put a sleeve over his right leg.
Vrabel said Monday that Campbell isn’t expected to miss the season. At this point, we’ll see if he’s ready for Week 18 when the Patriots play the Dolphins. If the Patriots are comfortable in their seeding at that point, then it could make sense to sit him until the playoffs.
New England Patriots offensive tackle Will Campbell (66) during an NFL football game on Sunday, Sept. 7 in Foxboro. (AP Photo/Charles Krupa)
@PLison33685: When is Tonga gonna play fullback again?
The Patriots need him, or another bigger body, when they get inside the red zone. The Patriots have struggled in consecutive weeks to score inside the 20-yard line.
But Tonga has to get healthy first. Since he’s dealing with a chest injury, and since they need him on defense with Williams out against one of the league’s best rushing attacks, maybe they wait to use him on offense until he can practice without any limitations.
