Republicans’ win in a closely-watched special House election in Tennessee can’t mask what is shaping up to be an increasingly challenging 2026 for President Trump and the GOP. 

Indeed, with midterms often turning into referendums on the party in power, Trump is facing a number of headwinds suggesting that his final two years in office may feature Democratic control of at least one chamber of Congress. 

To be sure, this has less to do with anything Democrats are doing and everything to do with how Trump is handling domestic and foreign policy.

Domestically, Trump’s approval rating sits at just 42% according to the RealClearPolitics aggregate, amid growing discontent with his approach to key issues.

On Trump’s handling of the overall economy, just 43% of voters approve according to a recent Yahoo News survey, while a majority (55%) disapprove.

That is a significant drop from the optimism that existed at the start of his second term.

At the time, a slight majority (51%) approved of the president’s economic approach, versus 39% who disapproved. 

To that end, the 24-point swing (+12 to -12) underscores that optimism has been replaced by pessimism as the economy weakens, costs remain stubbornly high, and voters are yet to see benefits from the “Big, Beautiful Bill.”

In that same vein, it is clear that voters do not believe Trump’s assertions that concerns over affordability are “a con job” – yet bizarrely, he keeps repeating similar statements.

A recent CBS News survey revealed that on inflation, a dismal 32% of voters support Trump’s approach of rising costs, versus nearly 7-in-10 (68%) who disapprove.

To be clear, it isn’t only polls that are highlighting the obstacles facing Trump in 2026, elections are.

Last month’s gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia saw the Democratic candidates make affordability a centerpiece of their campaigns. As a result, Democrats blew out their GOP challengers, and in both states, every county shifted towards Democrats.

Taken together, it is clear that the Trump administration needs a policy reset if they want any hope of maintaining Republican control in Congress. 

Specifically, Trump needs to refocus on affordability and the economy via policies which rein in costs and demonstrates a coherent strategy.

Thus far, there have been hints that the White House recognizes this, but not enough. 

Most immediate is the need for Trump to corral Congressional Republicans into finding a way to extend healthcare tax credits, even if they are reduced somewhat. 

Roughly 22 million Americans are covered by these subsides, and without them, insurance premiums will increase by an average of 114%. 

Extending these credits is broadly popular, supported by nearly 8-in-10 (78%) Americans – including 57% of self-described “MAGA Republicans” – per KKF polling.

It should go without saying, but as debatable as some of these subsidies may be, making healthcare unaffordable for millions of voters is not a winning midterm strategy.

Similarly, rolling back tariffs on a few food items is not nearly far enough given concerns over rising prices for food and other goods. 

Credit to the administration for realizing – belatedly – that blindly putting tariffs on food that cannot grow here was bad policy, but there needs to be a deeper rollback.

Immigration remains a bright spot for the administration, with 48% approving of Trump’s handling of the border versus 43% disapproving in a recent Morning Consult poll.

Further, Trump has had a number of high-profile foreign policy wins, such as achieving a ceasefire in Gaza. 

And yet, even those achievements are not without their own problems. Trump’s approval on immigration may be net-positive, but still less than a majority of voters approve. 

Conversely, a majority of voters (54%) say ICE is going too far with deportations, while a plurality (43%) believe the enhanced scope of deportations is actually weakening the country’s economy. 

Finally, considerable uncertainties linger over Trump’s other foreign policy accomplishments.

Violence has never really stopped in the Middle East, and there are now legitimate questions as to whether war between Israel and Hamas or Israel and Hezbollah will begin again, or if Trump will even be able to implement the second part of his peace plan.

Closer to home, the growing row over whether Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth committed war crimes in ordering a “second strike” of a suspected drug boat off Venezuela is likely to hurt perceptions of Trump’s approach.

And now, with escalating talk of expanding military action to include regime change in Caracas, Americans are rightly concerned, with Republicans now chiding Trump for ignoring kitchen-table issues at home in favor of chasing overseas victories.

Trump would do himself – and the GOP – a tremendous favor if he clarified his aims in Venezuela, including his true appetite for stepped up attacks on the country itself.

Make no mistake, Trump has ample time to turn things around, with 11 months until midterms.

Democrats’ still have their own struggles, including a 10-point favorability gap with Republicans and a lack of their own compelling national agenda.

Ultimately however, Democrats’ vulnerabilities may prove not to matter much.

Quite simply, unless the administration reverses course and fixes their policy and messaging struggles, Democrats will likely find their way out of the political wilderness and back to power, in the House at least.

Douglas Schoen is a longtime Democratic political consultant.