It’s looking more like Massachusetts voters might just get a direct say in how much income tax they pay, and when the state owes them refunds for surplus state revenues.

Two business-backed initiatives that would trim the state’s income tax rate and increase the frequency of surplus refunds to taxpayers cleared a key procedural milestone last week, with supporters claiming they collected more than enough signatures to qualify for the 2026 state ballot.

The Mass Opportunity Alliance, the group behind both bids, announced it collected more than 87,000 signatures for a ballot question that would cut the income tax from 5% to 4%. MOA said it gathered them in time for Wednesday’s deadline to submit voter signatures to city and town halls for verification.

That’s a solid cushion above the nearly 75,000 signatures requirement to advance ballot questions to the next stage.

MOA also said it collected more than 86,000 signatures for a separate question that would change a four-decade-old state law, 62F, which requires taxpayer refunds when revenue exceeds a predetermined threshold, with a goal of reigning in state spending increases.

Enacted by a ballot measure in 1986, 62F has kicked in only twice since the law was enacted, most recently in 2022, when it returned nearly $3 billion to taxpayers.

Backers estimated that such an adjustment of 62F would have returned money to taxpayers 24 times since the law went into effect.

The Alliance was launched last year by some of the state’ s most influential pro-business advocates, including the Massachusetts High Technology Council, the Massachusetts Competitive Partnership, along with the Pioneer Institute, a libertarian-leaning think tank.

They formed MOA partly in response to the passage in 2022 of the so-called millionaires tax, a surcharge on high earners’ income taxes.

Assuming enough signatures — collected by a contractor on MOA’s behalf — are certified, the Legislature then will have until May to pass legislation to address the questions. If lawmakers take no action, the MOA will need to gather nearly 12,500 additional signatures to get the questions before voters next fall.

The MOA’s concerned that the millionaires tax and other state fiscal policies impair the state’s business competitiveness. The Washington-based Tax Foundation supports that contention, reporting that Massachusetts has been mired among the 10 least friendly taxation states since the millionaires’ tax took effect, despite the passage of some modest tax reforms in 2023.

According to the Department of Revenue, the state collected approximately $27 billion in income taxes in the last fiscal year, accounting for a major chunk of the overall budget. Dropping from 5% to 4% presumably would eventually pare one-fifth of that amount, more than $5 billion.

That’s a big point of disagreement between MOA and the progressive groups lining up to oppose these questions. Phineas Baxandall, policy director at the left-leaning Massachusetts Budget & Policy Center think tank, said such a big reduction in the income tax would inevitably lead to painful budget cuts.

Baxandall called the proposal “reckless,” contending that the proposed tax cuts would primarily benefit wealthier residents while forcing the state to cut programs that benefit lower-income families.

If these two initiatives continue to clear ballot hurdles, both their backers and detractors will have to accept the result of direct democracy, when voters make their views known on the 2026 statewide ballot.

Sentinel and Enterprise

Editorial cartoon by Joe Heller (Joe Heller)