The growing pains from J.J. McCarthy were always going to be a public spectacle.

As much as the Vikings would have preferred to keep his development under lock and key until he was a completely finished product, that’s not at all how it works in the NFL when it comes to a young quarterback selected in the first round.

Minnesota Vikings quarterback J.J. McCarthy (9) throws under pressure from Baltimore Ravens linebacker Kyle Van Noy in the second half of an NFL football game, Sunday, Nov. 9, 2025, in Minneapolis. (AP Photo/Abbie Parr)

Asked about some of the ups and downs McCarthy has navigated as he’s gained experience under center, head coach Kevin O’Connell downplayed any cause for concern in the grand scheme of things. As he reflected on McCarthy’s tendency to get away from his basic fundamentals as a game progresses, for example, O’Connell noted that it’s not uncommon for a young quarterback to have his footwork get a little bit wild in the heat of battle.

“It’s all normal,” O’Connell said. “It’s a part of where he’s at in his development.”

The most challenging part for McCarthy is the fact that the Vikings entered this season with high expectations. They spent money in free agency like a franchise that expected to compete for a Super Bowl. That has resulted in McCarthy, for better or worse, being thrown into the deep end of the pool.

“I don’t think we ever go into the game saying, ‘Hey this is about J.J.’s development,’ ” offensive coordinator Wes Phillips said. “It wouldn’t be fair to anybody else to hold back on what we felt we needed to go win.”

Asked how he’s handled the pressure of playing the most important position in sports, McCarthy acknowledged he has occasionally felt himself getting overwhelmed.

“You can get wrapped up in that emotional roller coaster,” he said. “I’d be lying if I said I didn’t at some points.”

That has been reflective in his play as McCarthy has shown flashes of brilliance and made baffling mistakes with neither rhyme nor reason, sometimes showing both sides of the spectrum in the same series. The most consistent part of him right now is how inconsistent he can be over the course of a game.

Some have coped with the criticism McCarthy is facing by comparing the statistics from his first month as a starter to that of some of the best to ever play the position. It doesn’t make sense to go down that rabbit hole, because, well, for every Josh Allen with the Buffalo Bills, there are more than a dozen Josh Rosens with the Arizona Cardinals.

The best way to compare McCarthy accurately right now is by looking at how he compares to his peers from the 2024 draft class.

There were five other quarterbacks taken in the first round, including Caleb Williams with the Chicago Bears, Jayden Daniels with the Washington Commanders, Drake Maye with the New England Patriots, Michael Penix with the Atlanta Falcons, and Bo Nix with the Denver Broncos.

Here’s a deep dive into the numbers and what they suggest about McCarthy’s future.

“I feel like I’m growing,” McCarthy said. “That’s the No. 1 metric that I really focus on. Was I better today than I was yesterday? There’s a lot of room to go and a lot more growth to happen being 22 years old.”

Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Jalen Nailor (1) pulls down a quarterback J.J. McCarthy (9) pass in front of Baltimore Ravens cornerback Marlon Humphrey (44) for a 62 yard catch in the first quarter of a NFL game at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis on Sunday, Nov. 9, 2025. (John Autey / Pioneer Press)

Accuracy

The biggest knock on McCarthy has undoubtedly been his accuracy. The raw data is ugly, 53.7% on pass attempts to date. That’s the lowest rate in the NFL right now, the next closest being the Tennessee Titans’ Cam Ward (57.6%).

The only defense of McCarthy is that his average depth of target is 10.9 yards downfield. The only other starter in the NFL in double digits, is, interestingly enough, Sam Darnold (10.2) with the Seattle Seahawks

That indicates McCarthy is being asked to push the ball downfield more than anybody else in the NFL. There’s some nuance involved in that advanced metric, however, as he also has missed a good amount of the quick hitters closer to the line of scrimmage that lower that average.

The most damning statistic for McCarthy is that he has only been on target on 58.1% of his pass attempts. That’s by far the lowest rate in the NFL. It looks even worse when considering the league average for on-target percentage is 74.7%.

How does McCarthy’s accuracy from his first month as a starter compare to his peers 2024 draft class? Not very well.

Though the completion percentages weren’t amazing for some of them their first month as a starter — Williams (61.7%), Daniels (82.1%), Maye (66.7%), Penix (59.9%), and Nix (60.1%) — they were all better than where McCarthy is right now. It’s worth noting that McCarthy clears all of them in average depth of target, however, which at least helps explain the discrepancy in completion percentage.

As for on-target percentage, Williams (72.4%), Daniels (78.2%), Maye (76.2%), Penix (67.9%), and Nix (76.6%), all finished last season with respectable numbers in that category. The sample size is still small enough for McCarthy this season that he could theoretically end up closer to the league average.

The smoking gun when trying to find a root cause for McCarthy’s issues with accuracy is his footwork. He needs to show a lot of improvement in that realm over the next couple of months or it could pave the way for some interesting discussions.

Minnesota Vikings quarterback J.J. McCarthy (9) head butts guard Will Fries (76) during warmups before the start of a NFL game against the Baltimore Ravens at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis on Sunday, Nov. 9, 2025. (John Autey / Pioneer Press)

Football IQ

It’s not a good sign that McCarthy has turned the ball over at least once in each of his games. He has thrown for five touchdowns and six interceptions while losing one fumble.

It probably shouldn’t come as a surprise then that McCarthy is near the bottom of the NFL with a turnover-worthy play rate of 5.5%. That metric comes from Pro Football Focus and takes into account a pass that has a high chance of leading to an interception, or a marked carelessness with ball security that could cause a fumble.

The flip side of that equation is surprising as McCarthy also boasts a big-time throw rate of 6.7%. That metric also comes from Pro Football Focus and takes into account a pass with excellent ball location and timing, generally thrown further downfield and/or into a tighter window.

Essentially, McCarthy’s highs have been extremely high and his lows have been extremely low, which isn’t necessarily a great place to live as a young quarterback.

The numbers are all over the board for the 2024 draft class when it comes to turnovers in their first month as starters: Williams (three touchdowns, four interceptions, one lost fumble), Daniels (three touchdowns, one interception, no lost fumbles), Maye (six touchdowns, four interceptions, two lost fumbles), Penix (four touchdowns, three interceptions, no lost fumbles) and Nix (one touchdown, four interceptions, no lost fumbles).

The person closest to McCarthy’s turnover-worthy play rate was Maye with 5.7%. The person closest to McCarthy in big-time throw rate was Penix with 8.5%.

Neither of those metrics from Pro Football Focus guarantee success or failure as Maye has turned himself a legitimate MVP candidate this season, while Penix hasn’t yet taken the next step.

Minnesota Vikings quarterback J.J. McCarthy (9) scrambles out the pocket against the Atlanta Falcons in the third quarter of aNFL game at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis on Sunday, Sept. 14, 2025. (John Autey / Pioneer Press)

Mobility

A big part of McCarthy’s skill set is his mobility as he’s already piled up 110 yards on the ground to go along with a pair of touchdowns. He also has used it to even the playing field while being sacked 15 times and facing a pressure on 31.8% of his drop-backs.

The amount of pressure McCarthy has faced should be taken into account. It also shouldn’t be taken as gospel, however, as he has played a role in some of that by holding on to the ball for too long.

As for how for how McCarthy compares to the 2024 draft class in terms of mobility, Williams, Daniels, Maye and Nix all use that as a part of their games. The only person that doesn’t is Penix, and that has caused some problems for him.

The stress that McCarthy can put on a defense with his legs is is probably on par with that of Maye and Nix. As dangerous as McCarthy has proven to be, he doesn’t possess the elusiveness of Williams or the athleticism of Daniels.

Availability

It can’t be ignored that McCarthy has missed 22 games in his career with injuries that have included a torn meniscus last season that required surgery and a lengthy recovery process, as well as a high ankle sprain this season that knocked him out for a month and a half.

It’s fair to ask if McCarthy is durable enough to play in the NFL.

This hasn’t been an issue for anybody else in the 2024 draft class other than Daniels. After not missing a game last season, he has missed time this year with a sprained knee, strained hamstring and dislocated elbow. Some, in fact, are starting to question whether Daniels has to change the way he play the game.

The same thing can be said about McCarthy if he continues to get banged up.

Intangibles

The most important statistic is wins right?

In that case, McCarthy has still managed to find a way to get the job done, even if he hasn’t always looked pretty doing it. He has a 2-2 record through his first month as a starter. He has won a games in dramatic fashion (at Chicago) and one while looking lost for prolonged stretches (at Detroit).

It was another mixed bag for 2024 draft class last season as Williams finished his rookie season with a 5-12 record, Daniels finished with a 12-5 record (and in the NFC Championship game), Maye finished with a 3-9 record, Penix finished with a 1-2 record, and Nix finished with a 10-7 record.

It has been a completely different story for some in the 2024 draft class this season as Williams has a 6-3 record, Daniels has 2-4 record, Maye is 9-2 record, Penix has a 3-5 record, and Nix has an 8-2 record.

If the paths of McCarthy’s peers prove anything, it’s that it’s probably too soon to draw any conclusions about him. That said, there are certainly area in which he needs to improve, especially if he wants to have staying power in the NFL.

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